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The problem is everything irish is considered trash at the moment. when the bailout goes through we should see a nice lift in sp. i am buying on the dips now
Absolutely, and I've no idea why at this stage...? - What do you think is happening, apart from the recession, etc... They're paying down their debt, have a buy rating from several brokers, and still its dipping?...
very low price for a company trading inline with expectations.
I certainly think thats good news to hear. There seems to be a lot of support from various corners for the Company and it looks like I'll hang on to my shares that bit longer. Its a shame they aren't going up any quicker but if they collapse any further Im sure the board will pull out a few stops to raise the price, - even as a temporary measure. Here's hoping for a steady rise... GP
DAVY VIEW: Cyclical stocks with leveraged balance sheets, like INM, have been adversely affected by market conditions recently. However, we think that the stock's underperformance is not justified given its broad geographic exposure, a forecast economic recovery and evident positive momentum in advertising rates. It must not be forgotten that INM has consistently proven to be one of the most efficient operators in its sector, generating margins at the top end of its peer group. At 69c, the core group is trading at 5.1x, a 27% discount to the sector. We reiterate our 'outperform' rating.
Morning Equity Briefing You are here: Home > Davy Research > Morning Equity Briefing Independent News & Media (INM ID) Recent underperformance is unjustified; buy at 69c Simon McGrotty Closing Price: 69c Rating: Outperform 29/03/10 Previous: Neutral 30/06/09 FACTS: Over the past month, INM has underperformed the FTSE E300 media sector by 15%: INM is down 15% while the sector is flat. On a sum-of-the-parts basis, the core group is trading at a 5.1x versus the sector on 6.9x, a discount of 27%. ANALYSIS: While markets have become more cautious, with cyclical stocks in particular falling out of favour, this does not justify such a degree of underperformance. We have spoken before about the link between advertising rates and economic growth. INM's geographic diversification and its lack of reliance on any one specific market should only be to its benefit. At its AGM at the end of April, APN reported that advertising revenues year-to-date were up on the corresponding 2009 period both in terms of revenue and volume, with a notable recovery in national advertising rates in particular. In South Africa, Naspers, a peer of INM, reported full-year results last week. While its print media division recorded a top-line decline of 5% (we know that in calendar 2009 advertising rates fell 11%), circulation revenues held up remarkably well. The period covered is historic and does not include the World Cup, which would have given a significant boost to advertising rates. In Ireland, data from National Newspapers of Ireland show that advertising rates declined 15% in the first three months of the year, in line with expectations. Euro weakness has benefited INM in H1; this is likely to provide additional upside to half-year numbers. The euro was weaker by 21% and 18% respectively against the Australian dollar and South African rand in H1 than it was in the same period last year. With over 80% of EBIT generated in Australia and South Africa, FX alone could add an incremental €4.4m to earnings in H1 and 9.2m in the full year. Net debt/EBITDA was 4.8x at end-December. While this is higher than one would ordinarily like, limited CAPEX requirements and significant free cash flow over the coming periods will bring leverage down quickly. We expect INM to generate free cash flow of over €69m in 2010 and reach €115m in 2012. At this rate, we forecast net debt/EBITDA of 3.7x by end-2010 and 2.3x by end-2012. In addition, INM recently signed a four-and-a-half year bank deal, pushing major maturities out to 2014, alleviating any near-term funding requirements. DAVY VIEW: Cyclical stocks with leveraged balance sheets, like INM, have been adversely affected by market conditions recently. However, we think that the stock's underperformance is not justified given its broad geographic exposure, a forecast economic recovery and evident positive momentum in advertising rates. It must not be forgot
I thought things would have been looking up by now, and since Denis O Brien just increased his stake, surely this would have a positive effect on the price, for the last number of days this stock has been tumbling down, even when 75% of others seem to be rising on the iseq... To be watching the price fall c.18% in such a small space is sickening, - can anyone shed some light on why this is happening, Im thinking of selling (with a huge loss) but even now I still have a lot of faith in th company...what do to others think?... GP
from iii O'Brien increases Indo stake again Tuesday, 22 June 2010 15:17 Businessman Denis O'Brien had increased his stake in Independent News & Media to 20.2%. In April it was announced that Mr O'Brien's shareholding stood at 18.6%, making him a larger shareholder than Tony O'Reilly
Its good to see the price rising since the consolidation (even margianally)- Ive broken even which is good and based on the current attitude in the market about the company I dont think it'll be too long before we're up @ EUR 1.00...It's been a painful slow ride for those who've bought in the last few weeks/months but things are finally starting to look good ;)...
By Maeve Dineen - Saturday April 17 2010 Analysts Most analysts are now rating the stock as 'buy'. A report by analyst Mark Braley of Deutsche bank last week said INM's comprehensive disposal and de-leveraging process had made INM investible again. "This is one of the best sets of newspaper assets: structural growth in South Africa; at a very deep trough in Ireland; Australasia turning now," he said. "With 50pc-plus upside to our 0.18c target we raise our recommendation to buy." At its annual general meeting last month, INM chief executive Gavin O'Reilly said "INM remains a highly profitable company with rock-solid margins that have only one way to go." He said that if these current trends continue, he would target an improvement in operating profits for 2010. The group also sold its British titles, 'The London Independent' and 'Independent on Sunday'.
which broker was this please? thanks, let's hope so.
As per recent broker view this will get to 20c pre consolidation after 140c. Lets hope
Hope you are right with your opinion BUY But i feel these will just keep droping day after day like the same way as PVR witch is owned by the same cowboys as INM no wander ireland is in the state it is with Gansters like these runing plc companys,
Sorry to be the bearer of 'Not Good News' -- You are not a Millionaire overnight ! There was a 1 for 7 Share Consolidation so basically your holding on Friday is exactly the same today.
Morning Equity Briefing You are here: Home > Davy Research > Morning Equity Briefing Independent News & Media INM ID Disposal of loss-making London Independent titles now complete Simon McGrotty Closing Price 14c Rating: Outperform 29/03/10 Previous: Neutral 30/06/09 Following on from the announcement on March 25th of its intention to dispose of its loss-making independent titles, Independent News & Media (INM) confirmed the completion of this transaction on April 30th having received Irish Competition Commission approval. While Competition Commission approval and the resulting disposal were all but a formality, the transaction formally marks INM's exit from the mainland UK market, a region where pricing pressure across the industry made running profitable operations very difficult. As previously announced, as part of the deal, INM will pay £9.25m to Alexander Lebedev over the next 11 months in lieu of taking over the loss-making titles. The transaction will be earnings accretive in 2010 and has a pay-back period of less than one year as the titles' FY2009 loss was £12.4m. Overall, the disposal cost to INM is significantly less than what it would have been to close the titles.
COMPLETION OF DISPOSAL BY INM OF THE INDEPENDENT AND THE INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY IN THE UK TO MR. ALEXANDER LEBEDEV Ticker: (Bloomberg) INM.ID/ INM.LN and (Reuters) INME.I/ INME.L Dublin/London 30th April 2010: Independent News & Media PLC ("INM" or the "Group") is pleased to announce that, following Irish Competition Approval and satisfaction of other conditions, the disposal of The Independent and The Independent on Sunday to Independent Print Limited, a company controlled by the family of Mr. Alexander Lebedev, which was previously announced by the Group on the 25th March 2010, was completed today.
Independent News & Media INM ID APN reports current trading ahead of 2009 levels Simon McGrotty Closing Price 14c Rating: Outperform 29/03/10 Previous: Neutral 30/06/09 While no formal press release was given at APN News and Media's AGM for its 2009 financial year, the presentation highlights a return to growth in Australian and New Zealand advertising markets during the early stages of 2010. This echoes the positive growth reported by West Australian Newspapers earlier this week. In Australia, total advertising revenue year-to-date is up on the corresponding 2009 period both in revenue and volume terms. The areas showing greatest growth are motoring up 13% year-on-year in volume and 13% in revenue terms. Real estate is up 4% and 17% in volume and revenue respectively. Similar trends are reported in New Zealand, where total advertising revenue is trending above 2010 levels in the first 17 weeks of the year. In terms of outlook, the Chairman commented that business is now trending stronger and performing ahead of the prior year on a like-for-like basis in both Australia and New Zealand. Most recently, trading in April has continued that trend with national advertising in particular beginning to pick up. Forward bookings for May and June also give confidence for an improved second quarter trading and even at this early stage as advertisers are once again planning campaigns for the longer term. Management believes that its July-December half should show good growth in advertising spend across all markets. This improved performance reflects positively for Independent News & Media (INM). Should current trading continue, this could present upside to our APN forecasts. We are forecasting 2% advertising revenue growth for APN in 2010. This, coupled with the euro's continued weakness against the Australian dollar, should also present material upside to INM's half-year numbers at least.
Ireland finally out of recession http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0429/1224269287553.html MEC reported strong results along with yell. JPR out tomorrow we'll soon see the industry recovering. here's to 20c imho
Morning Equity Briefing You are here: Home > Davy Research > Morning Equity Briefing Independent News & Media INM ID West Australian Newspapers Simon McGrotty Closing Price 14c Rating: Outperform 29/03/10 Previous: Neutral 30/06/09 On Tuesday (April 27th), West Australian Newspapers (a peer of APN News and Media) reported third-quarter results for the period ending March 2010. Overall, total revenue came in at AUD$101m, up 6.7% year-on-year (yoy), and EBITDA was AUD $41m (up 10.5% yoy). While admittedly the comparables are getting easier, there is evident stabilisation across all areas of the business with year-to-date declines continuing to slow. The group reported year-to-date net profit after tax down 8% yoy. This compares with a 15.5% decline reported in the six months to December 2009. Year-to-date revenues are down 4.7%, but this decline is likely to be further reduced as the group moves into its traditionally strongest fourth quarter. Advertising revenues rose by 8.9% yoy in Q3, comprising display up 14% and a 5.6% increase in classified advertising. Circulation revenues declined by 3.8%, reflecting a reduction in circulation and increased distributor remuneration. In terms of outlook, management commented that business for the remainder of the year appears to be solid with continuing recovery over relatively weak prior year comparatives. The results reflect positively on the outlook for APN, which generates c.50% of revenues from Australia. This shows continued improvement in the advertising environment that began to take hold in late-2009
Can anyone else see the 10m buy this morning not being added to the daily volumes. Thanks
Applying a p/e of 8 to projected profits 2010 gives valuation of 0.43 per share. This is the basis of my strong buy. In addition all the issues with shareholders and bondholders are in the past.
work in the industry and things are definitely picking up. Recruitment being one of the most key areas as it is such a big revenue generator.Come on recovery
With the nearly full take up of the share issue, this means both o' brien and the o' reilly's have 15% of the company, the bond holder now own 48% of issued stock , meaning only 22% of stock remain in public hands, now valued at approx 90m. Knowing the history of the rivalry between o' brien and the o reilly's, both i expect will try and up their holdings at low s/p levels. Bondholder's paid 17c per share for the 48% stake and i expect they will not give up shares until 50-60cent s/p levels are reached. They expect to get handsomely paid for their 4 months of negoiation with INM. With O'brien selling stakes in smaller investment , possibily buiding capital, and with scores to settle , he will again try to become the largest shareholder and await the bondholders exit. O' brien who has sank 400m into INM , now worth 60-70 million, blames the o reilly's for his misfortune, i think the blame is seated with the o reilly's, running the loss making independent newspaper for years, over leveraging, piling up debt. O brien will come out winner i think, but until the bondholders exit , i think shares will be worth having over the medium term. Five year time o brien will be majority shareholder. J O REILLY now planning sale of independent, a long mooted o brien objective.
debt now down to 900m€, from over 1250m€, selling the independent may reduce the debt pile again, but i do not expect a high price to be achieved for this loss making paper but deposal of this asset will boost profits and margin. the share has been diluted by the new issue of shares both for the bond holder(now equity holders) and the existing shareholders. Bond holders paid 17c per share in there debt for equity swap. with a present capitalisation of only 470million € , debts of 900million, and assests of 1.8billion the companies net worth without any profits is close to double present capitalisation. With a stabilisation and pick up in revenue, profits should come in at or most likely above 150million even with the disposal of assets, giving the company a fair value of 1.2-1.7billion using the p/e ratio of peers in its sector industry which now stand at a lowly 7. This sector p/e is historically low and should rise as recovery sets in. The share price can only go one way. I think fair value for this share when the independent is sold, all debt is under control, taking possible growth from their austrialian and indian interests, the share price should be about 60-80cent by the end of 2010. I bought in at 30c, took the 5c share issue, and i am very hopefull for the company as you can see