Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Here are my views on some earlier comments on whether the gas storage is important or not. The gas storage project is not important for the survival of INFA. INFA has moved away from being a single project company as JW always said in the strategy. The gas storage project is maximum 8 days away from a DAERA recommendation and which ever way it goes, that is the closest we have ever been. Given that the project NPV at an 8% discount rate is 222m, I would say that it is important. To be able to sell off an equity stake, get some cash to invest in the H&W assets and accelerate expansion of capabilities without cash flow limitations would be massive for INFA. I would fight like a dog for any project worth 222m. T minus 8 days and counting.
Loosegoose In relation to your 15.01 post as far as Islandmagee is concerned the largest problem is NOT the Marine License but the funding. I accept that the is an agreement that means all the gas to be stored has been sold off as I understand it. Normally that would make funding easy as there is a clear revenue stream. However, if any investment is from a foreign investor either individual or corporation the maximum they can invest without a statutory referral to the Secretary of State is 24%. The statutory referral provisions of the National Security and Investment Bill which is currently in the Lords applies both to assets and takeover. The statutory referral would add around three months to the process.
So even if we get a decision next week, and remember it was only the recommendation going to the Minister that has to be by 31 March, we are looking at potential the end of Q3 before any construction work can start. I am not sure how long the construction phase is but we are looking at possibly 2023 before Islandmagee would be operational. That being the case other revenue streams will be needed in the interim for INFA to remain viable.
Government grant to get shipbuilding apprentiships going and green energy ??
That’s a good summary of the position re the ML Loosegoose. 2 years ago the ML decision was a boom or bust for INFA. Not any more.
If the ML is granted, it definitely will be a massive boost for INFA. If it’s declined I believe it will affect the share price in the shorter term only, as many early investors came onboard with it in mind. They may just have had enough and jump out if it’s declined.
What I however feel is more likely is that if DAERA do put a recommendation to proceed to the minister or to the executive, is that it will be with conditions attached. I’ve obviously no knowledge of what conditions they might be, but lets say it was a longer discharge pipe, 2 discharge pipes over a greater area, lower daily cubic metre discharge rates, additional test data, etc. These are all achievable, albeit with additional time delays and additional expenses. They’re achievable though and we’ll have other income streams while we’re waiting.
Something that JW referred to previously is that there is a plan B, C, D,E and more as options for Islandmagee and this project. We don’t know these options, but could one of them be to maybe to sell Islandmagee ? ? If it was, it would obviously achieve maximum value if there was a ML granted with no conditions. Regardless of whether it is granted or a decline, there is still a monetary value on the Isalandmagee project if it was being sold on.
Not normally me, but I’m going to look at a very worst case scenario. It’s a straight forward decline for talks sake. There still I feel would be very interested parties in taking over the project as the financial gains that could be here are massive. They might feel they could do a better job than INFA in getting an ML sign off, or go about it with a different approach maybe. Ie Hydrogen is the buzz word these days and it’s definitely the future. Might they feel a Hydrogen storage facility could be more likely to be signed off if they can evidence a greater need for it.
The bottom line for me is that Islandmagee has a saleable value whether the ML is granted / granted with conditions / or declined.
Would I personally sell my shares right now, today, even if I did feel the ML was going to be declined in the next week or 2 ? NO WAY, is the short answer. I’d be too afraid to be ‘out of market’ for when possibly bigger contract news is announced (and a subsequent share price jump) , and I feel that’s very close.
Don’t forget that with all this hype at the minute around the big grey boats with shooty guns and the wurley windmills possibly happening , we’re only 13 weeks away from the end of June and when we might see the LOI with Triumph progress to an order. June was the timescale discussed for this and this was 300M+ for one ship.
To summarize this above spiel. Is the ML essential for INFA going forward. Nahhhh, it’s not, not at all. Would it help. Definitely, but it’s only one egg in JW’s basket of exciting directions we can
go. :-)