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HD thanks for your helpful posts.
It is worth noting that in the Offer Document they have to repeat and reaffirm, withdraw or restate any extant profit forecasts for IDS (or major component businesses). They have reaffirmed their forecast for RM for 2024-5 that IDS will show an operating profit for that year. However, this is before VR costs, is “adjusted” and obviously excludes interest costs and tax (if any).
In respect of the €500m revenue forecast for GLS for 2026-27 that has now been withdrawn due to uncertainty over macro economic factors. They clearly felt sufficiently uncertain not to restate it.
DK can buy. Explained in bullet points five and seven under 6.1 of the link. The offer is being done by way of a contractual offer and not by a scheme of arrangement.
https://resourcehub.bakermckenzie.com/en/resources/global-public-ma-guide/europe-middle-east-and-africa/united-kingdom/topics/takeover-tactics
The Czech lad has a bargain
No wonder he wants this boxed off pronto
Thin trading, but still 4x more shares bought than sold, sp moving down.
What are the restrictions on DK buying at the moment (if any). I’m just interested to know if he can and if it makes sense to him as whilst the price is low it would appear many do t expect this deal to complete (based on the price today).
Considering DK's offer I assume he would be accumulating whatever is for sale at current low rates. This in turn though would push the stock price up.
Must admit current lows are disappointing.
Timings are set out on pages 12 to 13 of the Offer Document. It hinges around so-called Day 60 in the Takeover Code. Day 60 is the date (60 days after issue of the Offer Document ie today) when an offer has to be declared unconditional. For this to happen the offer must have enough valid acceptances (or effectively votes) and all conditions to the takeover, usually regulatory, have been satisfied. In other words the Panel sets a 60 day timetable to get everything done.
Day 60 is 25 August 2024 and all acceptances by shareholders in favour of the takeover should be in by 1pm.
However, Day 60 on 25 August 2025 is an already known unrealistic timeline given the needed regulatory clearances so it will almost certainly be extended (the target date for completion is Q1 2025). The date for the Panel to consider extending the timeline is 2 August 2024. That will almost certainly happen.
Acceptances can start to go in now but I would expect most to sit on their hands for a while and only put in any acceptances closer to 25 August 2025 (or indeed later). As indicated this date will almost certainly be extended. In any event 14 days notice will be given of any final voting date.
DK has until Day 46 (11 August 2024) to up his offer if he wants to. However, that is a deadline that can be moved subject to agreement by the Panel.
It is going to be a long haul.
How on Earth Sunak was appointed is beyond comprehension. It's a big benefit that his days are numbered.
Sunak has wrongfooted a lot of people with his election announcement. Himself being one of them.
Hound, Thank you for the clarification. I wonder if DK would have moved on this had he known it would coincide with the Political Turmoil?
If I have got my day count right then tomorrow is the last day for DK to get the Offer Document out (28 days from the Announcement of the offer). Usually a vote on the takeover happens 21 days (plus maybe an extra two days to allow for posting of documents) after the Offer Document is issued. 21 days is the minimum notice period. Then, in this type of takeover the offer is meant to be have been approved and be unconditional 60 days after the date of the Offer Document or otherwise it fails. This is known as Day 60. The Takeover Panel’s rules are designed such that target companies are not left in limbo for an excessive period. It is also usually in the bidder’s interest to try to complete as soon as possible in case circumstances change.
However, obviously there is no hope, given the many regulatory clearances that have to be obtained across multiple countries, that this will be wrapped up by Day 60. They have already said completion is envisaged in Q1 2025 and will have asked the Panel to accede to that timetable. There are other complicating timing issues such as the almost certain change in government, dealing with the recent CWU’s demands and the fact that having a vote in lateish July is not particularly good timing to get City people onside as they are on holiday or thinking about their holidays. So it is not entirely clear when the vote will be - but it is not tied to the AGM which I think some have said is in September.
DK has some time before the vote to raise his bid, if he needs to or is inclined to do so.
We should know the timing of the vote tomorrow as it will be set out in the Offer Document. Another feature of the Offer Document is whether DK has managed to round up any shareholders to vote in favour either through an irrevocable undertaking or letter of intent. That is potentially an important indicator of where things might be going.
Hi thanks for the reply. I guess a lot depends on if Labour have bigger fish to worry about.
Oligarch, Time2kill, and others have mentioned that end of June is the deadline for Kretensky to increase his bid if he feels he needs to sweeten the deal and move the vote % further in his direction. Not entirely clear on this Shinyfings and would appreciate it if anyone is able to clarify if this is indeed the case.
Just had a quick scan of Kretinskys 29th May RNS offer document, I would think there would be more info there. I seem to remember 1month after the release of the aforementioned offer was significant in this case, but don't have much time at moment to have a thorough look.
I think you are correct re the vote, but the takeover will still not be unconditional until if/when the govt. has considered the National Security legislation to the takeover.
That would of course be Deadlines…….
Are we now just waiting for the AGM and a vote or are there any other steps between now and then? I appreciate the election outcome may change things but assuming not is it just a yes or no in Sept?
No change in short % that's a blessing.
325/315 Someone playing "silly buggers" this morning or skullduggery?
Oli, hard to divine where Kretinskys line in the sand is. He seems to have acquiesced to all the concessions that have been asked of him, including giving a stake to the workers. He's already 27% into IDS which I would call a strong sign of commitment.
All the signs are that he still really, really wants to own IDS. The CWU seem to have softened to the idea of Kretinsky owning IDS, but also want a say in the way the company is ran. That might be too much for kretinsky, but as I said in a previous post the CEO Seidenberg is a German and in Germany the unions do have more of a say in how businesses are ran, so facilitating this will not be too much of a shock.
Concessions however cost money, and at some point you would think Kretinsky would be asked to go a place he doesn't want to be. He will have spent the current hiatus talking to the larger investors and finding out what the price will be to get the % required to carry the vote. Every 10p increase will cost about £65m. He is a very wealthy man who wants IDS very much indeed. He will probably need to up his bid; would 400p do it? If Kretinsky was told by the II's that 400p would get enough votes to carry it, I think he would up his bid by the requisite 30p at a cost of £200m to himself.
What's your guess?
Oli is the voting in September?
8 Jun 2024 19:41
Time2Kill, "Do they have a choice given that DK as to make a bid later this month, the UK can't stop operating for a month whilst the election takes place?"
There's not much of June left. Do you still believe that DK will push his bid further?
Letter delivery to homes and businesses has been achieved thus far on payment of postage stamps. However due to numerous reasons the Royal Mail has been running this service at a loss. It has also been fined for various reasons.
I. D. S. is a privately owned Company therefore this loss is borne by shareholders. The time has come to ensure the service is run efficiently and fully supported by postage fees which ensure its future.
The questions to be answered are :-
Is the current management capable of ensuring efficiency.
Are those who use the service prepared to pay for the changes needed.
Brendyboy, I presume by "mail" that you mean letters? So are you saying that nobody should or would be able to send a letter any more because none of the competition would be interested which would mean that there wouldn't be any letter deliveries if you had your way?.....
All these things are doing are just making it impossible for mail to be delivered get rid of mail and just do the profitable packets delivering mail costs almost £2million a day to the company it’s a joke