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That is why shareholder lose 90% or if you are new just a gamble. Maybe it go up multiple bag it it can find the fund or lose it .
Stop building 4 months as they are waiting fund from somewhere show serious trouble at moment. It cant be build until they can find a solution to deal with funding . If it cant so administrato is next rns as many big firms got it when they cant find the fund.
And the shares would be worthless! How is that good for PI’s?
Administration might not be that bad as 3rd party liquidators would take over & sell to the highest bidder, meaning the 'cornerstone' owners couldn't use their share holdings as a veto as basically it would be taken over by the banks.
The main/only protection I see for PIs which another poster has commented on today but I also assumed very early in this process was Orion and La Mancha because they will hopefully not just agree to anything and will keep it orderly. They put in $200-250m, lets assume $65m of that the convertible bonds get paid out in full leaves $135-185m (I forget the precise numbers and some was for Vermelho/royalty etc). Right now they own 33% of the company between them.
Using a mid figure of $150m as a guide for 33% of the company, at 30% of their investment a buyer would be paying $135m in total for the equity - £110m gbp (assume 1.2x fx) and around 42p a share.
So the question is, will a third party or Glencore take on all the debt, the completion to build cost, pay up the convertible bond, and stump up $135m for the total equity (of course, for Gelencore the total equity payment is less as they already own 17%).
We will see. I'd be happier the higher the price and I'd be pretty down about 0p.
As stated in the press release dated 2 October 2023, a number of factors arising from the completion of the detailed engineering work has led to an increase in material and quantities, scope changes, increased costs around the main electromechanical erection contract and increased duration on delivery schedule. These changes require additional financing resulting in an expected increase in the overall Project capital requirement by at least 35% (from the current capex budget of US$537m) and delay of first production to Q3-2024. Reta Engenharia is expected to complete its capital cost and schedule analysis report, following which an independent technical advisor, nominated by Senior Lenders will review the updated costs with targeted completion by mid Q4-2023.
They need at least 300 millions from somewhere to finish this project. As it increases 35% over compared 528 millions original.
That is why construction contrctor were told stop wirking at site and waite 4 months . Peoples need to understand why they must stop building and 4 months wait show there is big trouble ahead for them . Very worry sign as it go nowhere at moment and big shareholder seem dont want pump money money into it .
The m/cap has fallen from circa £350M a few weeks ago to around £20M now. Maybe it should go the whole hog and fall down to £1M or £2M - and then there might be a chance to make some money here.
I can assure you that when that is what the market thinks is going to happen - ie receivership - this share will have a £1M/£2m m/cap and not a £20M m/cap.
Going into receivership is still messy, Glencore run the risk of having higher offers submitted. I believe the cornerstone investors do offer us PI’s some protection. The directors have fiduciary duties to consider and will be taking legal advice. I agree that it is a ruthless game, and PI’s are at the bottom of the queue, however we are a very long way from being wiped out. It is not all doom and gloom at this level.
JM is winning the race and is not wanting this to fail. All the b s about admin, Glencore, etc… they all want this to succeed to regain valuation and make money. The RNS had tone factual and NOT misleading….20p is not far off which will be the equity price and rights offer (underwritten)…as part of new funding and release of senior debt which has covenants attached….
Sadly I disagree with those thinking it goes forward in current form - I do think the opportunity to do that was to get the finance deal done which clearly hasn't happened (probably because the sum required is large). Downing tools and re-start will be a huge cost and will have to be borne by however this goes forward from there.
I think the best chance now is an orderly sale, to somebody (Glencore? other bidders?) at numbers Orion and La Mancha are happy with. Hopefully not administration. Right now I'd be over the moon with 50p and I'd take anything reasonably 25p+. Whether Orion/La Mancha would take that is a question but what are their options if they aren't capable or willing to stump up the whatever hundreds of millions of $ required.
For me this became a sale outcome when the contractors downed tools I think people hoping for a continuation of build/eventual dividends etc are likely to be wrong. But I'm happy to be wrong also as I have been on many previous occasions! Something like 35p might represent c. 30% of La Mancha and Orion's blended average and maybe they are prepared to suffer 70% loss (I'm not sure what the situation is in that scenario with the convertible bond maybe they get paid out ahead of the equity).
It's a sad outcome but I'm resigned to it. Especially when the alternative is 0p. None of the above is a recommendation to either buy, or sell, this is a very individual decision but I'll hold for outcome.
Why would any of the 3 large investors let it go bust? Financial logic will prevail, the PI’s have been shaken down, but the asset still has significant value way above the current market cap. We are at the stage of optimum fear, which for others is an opportunity. I am pleased we have 3 big cornerstone investors. They have to work together, or sell it to a third party at a profit.
Yes, but if that happens it is a month or two away - it's all about today.
100% upside today -Why -running out of money fast and needing extra £ hundred of millions needed to complete the project before a cent is earnt.
Administration and Glencore buyout for a £1
How many times are you going to go over and over your scaremongering Glencore are going to let this go into administration etc etc
You’re like a broken record
Give it a rest
There is a very good chance that they will also not be given the chance to do that.
Debt equity deal is on the way imv
La Mancha is at/on/in favouable position for t/o, because he is a bondholder if i remember correctly.But, he is here only for investment purpose apparently.
No body knows how much HZM is short of cash to take it to production.
IMO, HZM should not draw the facility. ISsue shares at 20p, £200m in total should be enough to take it production.
Don’t let them grind you down Rover , you’ve been here a long time and you know what you’re doing, ignore the trolls
It Looks Like The Tide Has Turned ….. Finally
Dipped my toe in here this morning - not a huge buy and very much a gamble but if it pays off …..time will tell
Possible 100% upside today!!
2m shares @ 8p all done
Up we go - 10p today maybe? lol
We own a Tier 1 asset. The 3 big mining investors have invested because of the potential. The potential is still there, even though the market has dumped the value by 90%, through director incompetence. A bid will come, and will involve the 3 big investors in some form, they logically have to be onside They were happy to ‘share’ the project before, and will be happy to share the project with a greater ownership, or make money on their original investment. A bid will come, but it will have to be at a lot higher level than the current price. There is blood in the water, and there is a bargain to be had for someone. Painful as it is at this level, greed will see us out, but it will not be at £1.50 I am afraid.
Who is the market? It’s sentiment and demand and supply…tell me who determines the spread…safety does so the principal MMs make lots of money….. that’s criminal in itself! HZM will flourish!!!!!
The company own assets of $10 billion….where have you been? It’s like having the tools in place to extract riches… it’s the small bit at the end to fund the whirlpool that replenishes ad repays debt default swap is on the cards or short it…but watch this space!
If your wrong, you have to admit publicly your billy the goat.
All work on building stop 4 months until they find the fund , That is big question as where can they find 300 millions to pump this project? How can a company with 21 million CAP market can find 300 millions from bank? quite hard as it look very bad at moment.