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That will make analysts take note.
And probably a profit for the full year…
Interestingly there must be a lot of obligations for them to string out the recognition of the Takeda $400m with only 65% to be recognised this year.
Iam sure you are right jatw which is why I also remain invested
DF, if you look hard there will always be something not going quite according to plan- I think Orpathys sales this half will be the disappointment.
Other than that the strategy will be said to be delivering early results (Takeda partnership), Elunate development is going well with the sNDA for GC in China and BTD for it plus PD1 in EMC.
They will repeat expectations for pipeline success in H2 and 2024….jam tomorrow.
And continue to review options for the non-oncology businesses (but no action)
Funding position still strong….
When the SP does start to reflect the future prospects of the company….it will move rapidly to the next level which is why I choose to stay invested.
I’m sure today we will have the customary excellent results coupled with the usual dive in the share price.
HY results due in 5 hour’s time from now. Earlier at HKSE sp reached HKD 24.80. Short sellers have started their act and, disappointingly, the numbers are in the red :( . It will be interesting to read the summary of today’s live session here, if someone could kindly post here.
(PS: not sure why capitals keep disappearing from my messages here!)
Good interview (1.07) from head of Astra on China, I would think this applies equally to Hutchmed and other companies in this space too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/astrazeneca-cfo-denies-geopolitics-impacts-china-business-after-spinoff-rumors.html
Astra have also dismissed the rumour of spinning out their China division.
"AstraZeneca is the largest drugmaker in China, which accounted for 13% of last year's revenue.
According to an FT report in June, the drugmaker was drafting a plan to spin off its China business, and considering listing a separate unit in Hong Kong.
On Friday's call with journalists, Soriot responded to a question about that report by dismissing it as a "rumour". "We are satisfied with the way we are structured in China today and our focus is delivering those medicines to patients and partnering with local biotech companies in particular."
"Excluding COVID medicines, sales in China grew by 7% at constant exchange rates in the quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth on that basis.
The company upgraded its guidance for China, saying it expected total revenue to grow by a low-to-mid single digit percentage in 2023, up from a low single-digit percentage increase."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-second-quarter-profit-beats-061258501.html
takeda q1 results very strong, beating the forecasts. encouraging, as they are major partners global fru*****inib marketing, pending approval/s.
AZ results today include (AZ sales) of $22m in H1, $9m/$13m Q1/Q2 (NRDL).
H1 22 $181m
H2 22 $206m
Total of $387m
The Fresco2 costs will not be incurred in 2023, with 2022 said to have been a peak year we can assume some reduction will happen…but the China research base is unchanged/even expanded, it is the prioritisation of the pipeline that will bear down on 2023 cost….TBH I am not expecting much in the way of absolute reduction…
20% raise in the 5 days of trading, this week. Will the HY23 on Monday going to reveal enough positive reasons for further improvements?
Seems to have gathered some positive momentum, let’s hope it is just not a lot of traders ready to sell on the results…..which I am sure will be presented as strong implementation of the revised strategy.
Market valuation and actual valuation are generally worlds apart, we see this all the time with seemingly huge premiums being paid in takeovers but really they are just paying what the company is worth.
THG is a prime example, bids at 170p rejected as undervaluing the business but currently trading at 95p
Hutchmed is now a third lower following the $1.3b Takeda partnership, market is awash with short sellers paying little or no attention to fundamental valuations imo.
Given this paradox its going to be difficult to come up with a sensible valuation which isn't considered ridiculous, my own thoughts are between 400 - 450p based partly on revenue forecasts but more importantly on what major holders may accept.
marketing approvals for fru*****inib by fda and european ema will be crucial stepping stone for regaining the ‘once, shiny share price’. takeda’s partnership in this regard is encouraging. i am keeping my fingers crossed for positive results coming out of the global multi centre phase 3 study, similar to the results in chinese studies, for surufatinib. that should be pushing major players to show “intense interest” in the company. hopefully, the newly employed non executive director would be playing a crucial role during that phase, if it happens.
total market valuation at the end of yesterday’s “positive” trading session at nyse was 2.44 billion usd. what price tag would be suitable if things work out well? there are few posts mentioning ‘merger and acquisition’, hence my question.
That's some move for Hang Seng
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3228797/hong-kong-stocks-surge-amid-rally-chinese-developers-tech-leaders-beijings-dovish-tilt-fans-big
Its more of an indirect benefit lifting sentiment, makes shorts jumpy too.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202307/25/WS64bf6cc5a31035260b818609.html
1pencil - China govt stimulus is good generally, but how much will it be of benefit to HCM and its ilk…..oncology treatments are still expensive for patients and their families even after NRDL discounts…..it seems to me if patients can afford it they are the ultimate case of inelastic demand.
China vows to spur growth of private economy
Updated: July 19, 2023 21:1
https://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestreleases/202307/19/content_WS64b7e139c6d0868f4e8ddf20.html
"After making life more difficult for many private firms in recent years, China’s leadership is shifting course and has made high-level pledges to improve the business environment."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/china-policy-measures-to-bolster-economy.html
I would think it too early for Carlyle to be influencing strategy - and she is one of a number of Board members - so it is difficult for them to have much direct influence….the strategy has been in place for a while now……what they have yet to do is to find global development partners for drugs proven in China (if we ignore AZ orpathys as a first attempt nearly a decade on no more have been done), Takeda only took on Elunate once the MRCT was completed. So I would like to see Sulanda, Amdiz and Sov get global development partners soon…
Expecting to see a sharp reduction in CAPEX too, Shanghai factory update would be good, duly inspected and signed off.
Any change to strategy following the appointment of Ms Ling Yang, managing director of The Carlyle Group?
Label expansion for Elunate looking positive,,,,,
BTD as a 2l treatment with study to complete early 2024….should build revenue in 2025…..will Takeda pursue globally?
Another day another loss
What might we see?
Continued growth of in market (china) sales…I suspect Elunate is going to hit a ceiling as it already has 44% market share….but Orpathys and Sulanda should show good growth….Elunate will grow next year with the sNDA hopefully leading to a launch and globally with Takeda.
Will we see a reduction in R&D spend? Last year was said to be peak spend…but i doubt there will be much fall this year (it is fully funded by the $400m paid by Takeda).
The loss run rate should be down with increased income and slightly reduced spending..
In terms of pipeline, there is not too much more than is already in their plan (Sov and Amdiz NDA this year). I doubt anyone is expecting Japan to accept Sulanda without further work….I hope they can find a global partner for it before too long….and if they cant then start the multi- regional study needed to launch.