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My stake in GSK is modest and still in profit. I shall hold on and see what happens as it is all far too complicated for me to get my head around without hiring a lawyer.
There is also the possibility the celebrity lawyer on an ego trip might not appeal to a jury.
Yes SaMason its very short lived.
Looking at the resent transaction history it is about 4m trades with the od spike to around 20m trades according to LSE.
We are currently over 49m sold and 22m purchased at 12:26
That was short lived!! 45mil sold vs 14mil purchased
As of 09:19 hrs the buys are outnumbering the sales by 30% 2m sales and 3m buys. It looks as though the market is viewing this as a buying opportunity
My opinion, for what its worth, is GSKs Federal appeal overruling the Delaware state ruling will most likely be lost.
I say this because I have dug about and read the ruling of the Delaware Judge on the critical 'Daubert standard'. (https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=364910)
The Delaware Judge (who said the jury should decide the scientiic evidence with expert witnesses) opens her ruling and writes extensively, on the Daubert standard - this is the gatekeeper function of admissability of scientific evidence to jury trials.
She refers to the Roundup judgement, as a precident, which let in expert witnesses on weak scientific evidence and gave it up to the jury to decide. She also points out the Delaware state court has well established differences in how strong evidence has to be and it should goto Jury trial. That the seriousness of the cases removes the Daubert standard. And on and on... all backed up with precidents and rulings.
Non US company
Jury court cases are scary specially in scientific fields. The jury don't understand the scientific arguments. In addition there is a built in prejudice against pharma forgetting that they need medicine when them and it their families are ill.
Being a non IS company is a handicap.
However if the appeal goes in GSK's favour I am expecting the price goes up considerably.
Hence a gamble with a considerable risk and possibly high return.
Tragic that our investments in these companies which is our best hope to try and cure diseases which we all will suffer from are in such danger due to the US court system tearing the companies apart with no real scientific evidence of harm!
The appeal is here:
(https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/statement-zantac-ranitidine-litigation-gsk-starts-process-for-appeal-of-recent-delaware-daubert-decision/)
There are two big dangers - the appeal failing, then its fully step 2 - juries to decide the science, expert witnesses and open season for billions. Also the science could change - remember it only needs 1 study to show higher levels of NDMA conversion under various conditions.
Looking at the TA to see where it could rachet down to on the weekly while waiting for the appeal looks about 15 for support?
It will drop like a stone if the appeal is lost and juries can award damages and decide the evidence based on the balance of probabilities, creating serious losses, but it will spike up to it's prior high if the appeal is won.
Should we be Worried ?
I agree with the sentiment of what you write, no 2 cases are the same but the president with foreign Big Pharma and Big oil companies are already set in the US media and scum bag firms ..I would like GSK to counter claim against the law firms and rent a victim and make them pay for our lost earnings per share let them get a taste of some GSK medicine !!!.
2022-2023: Ongoing Litigation and Financial Implications
September 2022: Bayer continued to face thousands of lawsuits related to Roundup, impacting its financial performance and stock price.
Share Price (September 2022): Approximately €49.85 (Wikipedia).
2023: Bayer continued to negotiate settlements and address ongoing litigation. The company faced challenges in resolving future claims and managing the financial burden of existing settlements.
Share Price (June 2023): Approximately €53.11 (Wikipedia).
2024: Current Status
June 2024: Bayer is still dealing with legal challenges related to Roundup and other products. The total liability and impact on the company's finances remain significant, with ongoing settlements and court cases shaping the future of the litigation landscape.
Share Price (June 2024): Approximately €27.45 (Wikipedia).
Timeline of Bayer Litigation Liability with BAYN.DE Share Price
2001-2015: Early Legal Issues
2001: Bayer acquired Aventis CropScience, making it a major player in the agricultural sector.
Share Price (approx): Not readily available from 2001.
2013: Bayer's contraceptive pill Yasmin faced numerous lawsuits over alleged side effects, including blood clots. Bayer settled thousands of lawsuits for billions of dollars.
Share Price (December 2013): Approximately €89.60 (Wikipedia).
2015-2018: Monsanto Acquisition and Glyphosate Litigation
2016: Bayer announced its intention to acquire Monsanto, a leading agrochemical and agricultural biotechnology corporation, for $66 billion.
Share Price (June 2016): Approximately €95.06 (Wikipedia).
June 2018: Bayer completed the acquisition of Monsanto. This marked the beginning of significant legal challenges related to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup.
Share Price (June 2018): Approximately €88.76 (Wikipedia).
2018-2020: Glyphosate Lawsuits and Verdicts
August 2018: A California jury awarded $289 million to Dewayne Johnson, a groundskeeper who claimed Roundup caused his cancer. The award was later reduced to $78 million.
Share Price (August 2018): Approximately €74.12 (Wikipedia).
March 2019: A federal jury in San Francisco awarded $80 million to Edwin Hardeman, another cancer patient who used Roundup. The award was later reduced to $25 million.
Share Price (March 2019): Approximately €61.29 (Wikipedia).
May 2019: A jury in Oakland, California awarded over $2 billion to a couple claiming Roundup caused their cancer. The award was later reduced to $86.7 million.
Share Price (May 2019): Approximately €54.14 (Wikipedia).
2020: Settlements and Ongoing Litigation
June 2020: Bayer announced it would pay up to $10.9 billion to settle thousands of existing Roundup lawsuits. This settlement covered approximately 75% of the claims.
Share Price (June 2020): Approximately €70.15 (Wikipedia).
August 2020: Bayer agreed to an additional $1.25 billion for future claims related to Roundup.
Share Price (August 2020): Approximately €57.64 (Wikipedia).
2021-2022: Legal Setbacks and Adjustments
May 2021: A federal judge rejected Bayer's proposed settlement plan for future Roundup claims, stating it was inadequate for addressing potential future cases.
Share Price (May 2021): Approximately €51.45 (Wikipedia).
July 2021: Bayer announced it would set aside an additional $4.5 billion to deal with potential future Roundup litigation.
Share Price (July 2021): Approximately €46.80 (Wikipedia).
August 2021: The company lost another significant case in California, where a jury awarded $86.2 million to a couple alleging Roundup caused their cancer.
Share Price (August 2021): Approximately €45.18 (Wikipedia).
2022-2023: Ongoing Litigation and Financial Implications
September 2022: Bayer con
"The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don’t forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are." Warren Buffett.
Yes - Noone can reasonably predict what will happen, but it doesn't look great. The sidelines are the best place until more information co IMO.
From the BAYER case ;
There are 3 stages;
(1) The scientific evidence is determined as weak and essentially unprovable, but there is some tiny thread of a possible harm or expert witnesses who claim harm.
(2) The court makes a decision that because the scientific evidence is debatable, each case is determed on it's merits resulting in numeroius jury cases.
(3) Sobbing jury cases start awarding billions in damages with a backlog of thousands of cases. The company overturns the billions to 1 or 2 individuals to hundreds of millions on appeal, but the damage is done and a precident has been set for many more claims.
We are still at stage 1. But unless the Federal Court squashes the Delaware court appeal ruling that each case should be heard on it's merits, this business could be open for a BAYER style scenario with numerious sobbing jury courts.
Its with a very heavy heart I sold half my GSK shares today as they were inherited from my Parents. I will sit on the side lines with my war chest and if we win get back in asap. If we loose at least the sum bag Lawyers and ambulance chasers wont wipe me out completely , cant win what ever I do and really bloody annoyed having to go so defensive but don't think the sp will rise much until after the next round of appeals and my parents will turn in their grave ifi loose my inheritence..
Pleased to see GSK are getting tough and the recent claim pulling out says to me most alleged victims never took the drug or are making it up for an easy pay off. I am retired now but having spent 30 odd years in courts I know right and wrong and justice is nothing to do with anything !!!! .Its ALL about making money by the legal professions. The alleged drug takers and GSK are just pawns to generate legal fees and appeals NOTHING ELSE !!!..Do you honestly want the people you represent to go guilty or say they are making it up or not sure ? , No the more days at court the better . Just 1 Average barrister makes £1k a day usually on legal aid plus the solicitors fees etc etc etc imagine how much large legal teams of dozens lawyers make with mutliple claimants ?.Do they want the game to stop of course not !.As soon as I here all we want is justice for our clients you know legal teams are on a gravy train. Sorry anybody that thinks any legal system and the jury system is robust and sound is in cloud cuckoo land. The trial by jury system is just a brilliant way of causing confusion and doubt. If 12 people went into a cafe would they all agree and order the same meal ? agree to drink the same drink ? or support the same political party or football teams etc etc ? Of course not you cant get 12 people to agree anything the best of times. Plus no disrespect but do you honesty think the average jury member will understand ANY of the science involved in this case ? .Of course not its pay day for the lawyers all they need is to cause doubt ??? I have seen it so many times , any time I hear somebody talk about the great legal system and how wonderful the jury system is, mainly by lawyers I have to throw something at the tv. Anyway rant over hopefully GSK will offer them £1k per liar and we can get on with our lives ? but I doubt it .
If you pay off one dodgy lawsuit there will be a disorderly queue beating on your door with more writs which will bankrupt the company. The science says that GSK is in the right; should they accept being blackmailed by the threat of a Jury verdict? The whole article can be read at this Archive link
https://archive.ph/tdOo6
See this in the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/e99dbc4b-5539-491b-9c4e-6c7bc6367c4d
for those without access, it features the firm bringing the Delaware case which has spent $58m to find claimants. IMV it might be better for GSK to bite the bullet and negotiate a settlement even though one estimate is $ 3.5bill. That is LESS than the fall in value the news broke last week.
Class actions, typically American, are very difficult to prejudge ad BP famously discovered
She is slowly coming back up again , has anybody seen any time line when the appeal against these Ambulance chasers and judge takes place ? .Thats the time to be in cash for a few months , if we loose that GSK is toast and open to every nutter and ambulance chaser for decades . .I hope they are actually checking every single person who even claims to have taken the drug ? finding 70k people allegedly with cancer caused only by GSK drugs beggars realistic belief anyway .I'm sure a lot of brown envelopes to alleged key prosecution witnesses and 'alleged experts' are being handed out right now, just say this and we will see you alright . Hate to say it, and I know its the principle , but it may be worth GSK paying out a few hundred million now as its cheaper than share holders loosing billions later ! .I am sure horse trading is being considered right now . Its also about time any firm doing business in America either pulls out or provides far more robust protection to share holders.
Compensation culture in the western world has gone mad.
Fire fighters 100 in total £20 million for just doing their job.
£4.6 million pay out for councillor for just doing her job.
All too traumatised to work again. All related to Grendfell Towers.
I have been on Zantac for years now I am forced onto other drugs that will be more risk of side effects than Zantac.
Where is my compensation?
On point 1. Beyond dumb.
If you have an annuity of £100 per year and are fined £10 as a one off the annuity does not become £90.
Not 'Insanity'....but you make a common mistake...
1. It is nonsense that somehow, say, a $16bln liability can be adjusted by a $16bln adjustment in the market cap!! The market cap is LEVERED money chasing the companies earnings. i.e. a 10 imes P/E means if billions are taken from earnings - cutting GSK earnings by half, the marketcap has to half to stay at the same P/E...
2. That was before the Delaware Judge ruled the scientific evidence of causing cancer is valid and 70,000 cases can now goto Jury trials.
Bayer's product roundup - the cases went to jury trials - has had to set aside $16 bln (of which 10bln has already been awarded)
Bayer's shareprice went from 120 euros to 26 Euros as billions upon billions were awarded to individuals by sobbing jurys on the weakest of evidence. It's marketcap didn't go from 120bn to 104bln - it went from 120bln to 30bln!
BAYER'S gylcophosphate hebicide ROUNDUP, which has been around for over 50 years used on a large scale and deemed totally safe, showed a weak link to cancer from mice studies in 1 study. They could not replocate the results in rats.
Although the evidence was basically non-existant, an expert witness proved crucial to say he thought there was a link to a type of human blood cancer. (https://cllsociety.org/2023/04/toxic-exposure-does-exposure-to-roundup-cause-cll-sll-and-other-lymphoma/) - with that judgement the flood gates opened.
Some individuals, not even a class action were awarded billions. The claims have been never ending for such a popular product. BAYER stock did nothing but slowly fall from 120 in 2015, over a protracted period of years, less than a decade later it's 26 Euros.
Shareholders minimised or dismissed the threat of serious US legal liabilities from a popular product which is over 50 years old and had passed as safe all known tests to science.
Although BAYER is still just about in business the legal liabilities have crushed the iconic 160 year old company. Net debt is now an unbelievable 15 times operating earnings and trapped shareholders have seen years and years of losses as the drama unfolded - what was deemed a nonsense claim easily dismissed in 2015, snowballed into a monster of billions in compensation and thousands of claims, each year the story getting worse and worse.
Escalating mountains of legal claims out of molehills is a very real danger of the US legal system.