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Started: MrCareful, 26 Jun 2024 09:41
Last post: belgrano, 26 Jun 2024 21:04
Spot on Bugsy, as soon as they have a bit more in the coffers there will be more shared out, going to spend the next divi on a cruise.
The Board will keep under review the Companyās capability to distribute excess cash by way of dividends or additional buybacks, considering the operating environment and the Company's liquidity position
Whilst the local sales keeps building the money pot up it'll be distributed with dividends and buybacks with minimal investment to the fields and rightly so until we're paid our debts and the pipeline opens.
MrCareful since no one has answered your question, they have to complete the current one before announcing another. (More directly, only the current one has been announced.)
****eye yes and across the road, whenever i say something realistic concerning the iocās predicament they say iām bigdog. uncanny that innit.
I was aware that the current buyback programme of up to $10 million was to be completed.
However I thought I had read somewhere another buyback scheme had been proposed to start when this one finished but couldnāt find it. No one answered my question, so I am guessing the heat has finally got to me and there isnāt another buyback scheme yet?
Good reasoning Roger, Market views us just over 4. Very interesting that our company is current in the "milk the cow" type of operation. Unless things change significantly things will dwindle over time now. I can see us getting paid more for our crude as those really creaming the big bucks realise that the golden goose needs feeding well or the golden sludge stops running out of her. We are starting to see that already with increases in local crude prices being paid.
the various share incentive schemes will make little or no difference to the gkp share price, therefore being too bothered about this seems to be a waste time, unless of course you are a senior employee/ director that might be able to secure better paid employment elsewhere.
so what is gkp worth ? if i knew that iād be a far richer man, however, as an exercise in theory and not in practice iāve calculated this on the back of a *** packet ( ie. roughly)
as a high risk share gkp could have a p.e. of between 4 & 5. if they are making about 7 million u.s per month x 12 = 84 million per year x 4 = 336 or x 5 = 420 million u.s. plus add net cash about 100 million = 446 million @ p.e. 4 or 520 million @ p.e. 5. divided by 219 000 000 app. shares = 2 dollars @ p.e. 4 or 2.37 dollars @ p.e. 5
in short in sterling gkp might be worth 158p @ a p.e. of 4 or 187 @ a p.e. 5
( for those of us that like to dream a bid today might value gkp @ 10 x earnings + net cash = 374 pence. )
Thanks P.
So the EBT is very small relative to outstanding awards of nil cost options. I'm not sure how many of these have lapsed in 2024 (i.e. didn't vest due to performance conditions not having been met). Expect another award shortly (for 2024) given the recent approval of the LTIP.
Not completely clear but there were 200k at the end of last year. There have been two exercises of vested options this year by persons discharging managerial responsibilities.
Started: PUTUP, 26 Jun 2024 10:06
Last post: PUTUP, 26 Jun 2024 10:06
One more left
Started: rogthegamer, 25 Jun 2024 09:53
Last post: SpArmada, 26 Jun 2024 09:34
Notice that the document was signed between the Government of the Republic of Iraq and the Government of the Republic of Turkey, not the KRG. That is the origin of the dispute (the ITP no shipping Iraqi oil but Kurdish oil instead) that has resulted in damages of $600 million in favour of Iraq, with an additional amount from 2019 to 2023. I don't think that document can be applied to the situation of the IOCs.
You can find the agreement if you Google "ITP Pipeline Agreement", in my case it's the third result from jurismundi. It was filed on 04/10/23
I posted the following on 19th Mar-24, under the title: ITP Pipeline Agreemnt 19th Sept 2010.
Consider the potential implications of Article 11 of this sovereign agreement:
"...This Amendment shall be valid for 15 years as from entering into force. The Sides start negotiating the contract conditions upon request of any of the Sides two years before its termination date. In the case where there is no need for new amendment/agreement this Amendment shall be considered as extended for an additional 5 years period of time, unless a termination note is sent in writing by one of the two Sides to the other 1 (one) year before the expiration date of this agreement".
(Copied from the agreement exactly as written)
Hi Broadford,
Appreciate your advice,
Know a lot of investors are hoping that any new agreement could be worded or achieved outside of SOMO control. Clearly many in Kurdistan are pressing for independence from Baghdad, and independent income streams from pumped exported crude could certainly be a keystone. Is it a requirement in the current contract that Baghdad has to have a say, which could be removed in a new contract with direct agreement from a self autonomous Kurdistan.
I believe Baghdad has many in power actively trying to undermine Kurdistan due to hatred on religious grounds and will always conjure excuses to prevent the pipeline opening. Just that a new contract might circumnavigate them completly.
BroadfordBay - does the agreement end Sep 25?
And is there anything in it that would preclude the IRG having a say in it post Sep 25?
I appreciate that you aren't a contract lawyer (or maybe you are?!?!?)
Started: Eurwyn, 24 Jun 2024 13:59
Last post: Gerald57, 25 Jun 2024 09:38
Hi there i use dividenmax.com to see what my shares are paying out, if you use the free part of it you only get the basics https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/oil-and-gas-producers/gulf-keystone-petroleum/dividends
@Ā£0.05.4p
Can someone tell me how much dividend we can expect per share in July please
Started: theshipscook1, 23 Jun 2024 15:59
Last post: Straycat, 24 Jun 2024 13:38
down in *****a do lago soon...how's the weather?
and how's the orca?...ugh...
Sailing off SW Portugal ā¦.. Orcas are the problem - shipās cook concerned about how she will cook one if caught.
"ALL shipping banned how will people get goods"
Poundland or Ebay.
ALL shipping banned how will people get goods
All shipping should be banned, it is causing rising sea levels:-)
Started: Kheldar, 24 Jun 2024 07:21
Last post: Roxi, 24 Jun 2024 07:48
Yes the game is up for the shorters, they will slowly drift of into the ether!!!, onwards to Ā£1.75 now
Reduced by 0.1 last Thursday to 0.59%. I reckon weāll see then report going below 0.5% today as GKP didnāt buy any shares on Friday and Iām guessing itās them closing out their position in an orderly fashion š
Atb
Started: rogthegamer, 23 Jun 2024 08:49
Last post: RIDER75, 23 Jun 2024 14:41
Sorry after rereading you were right what you detailed. Br
If your version were right, shorting around ex -div days would be a gain without risk, and lending shares were a clear loss.
Shorters have to pay for this to the lenders.
@rtg, the original holder gets the dividend and not the one doing the shorting - this avoids a double bonus for the shorter.
Assuming the price of the share drops by the amount of the dividend.
The shorter automatically benefits from the drop in price because it allows them to buy and close at the reduced level.
If they got the dividend as well then they would get a double benefit.
The other way of looking at it is the original holder needs the dividend to compensate them for the drop in price.
Rogthegamer you'll like this, I will leave it to experienced people to give a full answer, but.....
"The short seller is responsible for making dividend payments on the shorted stock to the entity from which the stock was borrowed."
Walleye are clearly reducing their position, assuming they close it completely they will need to buy in excess of one million shares. I also suspect that other shorts still have positions lower than the half percent level. Will they now be competing with Peel Hunt in the market, if so our shares will certainly be in demand, ie. not the time to sell, although some will for reasons of their own and we all have our price. I for one certainly do although I have noted that the company did say that negotiations with Baghdad are āongoingā and Sodās law will ensure that an agreement will follow any sales that I might make if the price continues to rise. That said leaving something for someone else can be a good strategy if weāre not too greedy.
Finally regarding the Shorts, can anyone here tell me what would be the likely position of a short in terms of a dividend due to the owner of the shares they sell in the hope of buying them back at a lower price?
Started: Kheldar, 21 Jun 2024 23:01
Last post: belgrano, 23 Jun 2024 13:44
So now we are to receive an interim dividend, while the share buybacks continue if needed to support the share price and decrease the quantity of shares in circulation.
However this has been achieved in only a couple of months, so apart from the planned maint (wish we had a lot more tankage, my poorly answered Q2 in the AGM), for three weeks we will run at reduced capacity, (hopefully they can stockpile a decent amount to reduce losses). However we are starting to see some pretty decent amount of cash being generated.
No reason why we might not see 3 or 4 such dividends per annum.
Also on the subject or our absent but owed 151M from the KRG. They know they owe us it, they got paid for the crude that was produced before the export pipeline closed. They had to prioritise payments when faced with sudden large income shortfall, and the IOC's were not top of the list.
However current large sales are controlled by the KRG via proxies, and for arguments sake lets call them what they are....exports.
Now we know as all the IOC's are exporting via truck currently the KRG must be really pulling in a small fortune in sales.
Its been going steadily for a while now and I expect the most urgent bills have been paid.
Is it not inconceivable that GKP might receive a nice part back payment for monies owed from the KRG, with which the company will reward shareholders with a real decent dividend. Some money might be used for field development.
So a few modest dividends which add up to a decent amount annually
Chance of a whopper divi.
Buyback supporting price and reducing stock.
Outside chance of export pipeline agreement (I'd say 3%)
No debt and decent contingency cash held.
Oil field giving 6-10 % decline which is good.
Very strong demand for our valuable sludge, and good relationship with the KRG.
For me a very positive outlook with much better than evens chance of decent capital growth from here and high annual dividends as well. Very hard to beat that.
"So we can put to bed whether they are held in treasurer or elsewhere. Every share that is cancelled will mean existing shareholders will own a higher percentage of the company (albeit small) than they did before the cancellation. This, all thing being equal, should result in the share price rising."
Yes, except in the context of staff costs that constantly require remuneration in payment of shares (why cannot they be paid in cash?), the share count is likely to rise given the amount of shares bought back is less than the rise in the amount of awards of nil cost options. In this situation the bought back shares help cap the staff cost, but not entirely as the more dividends are paid between award and vesting date, the more shares have to eventually be issued to pay for the dividends not collected between award and vesting date, if I have understood it right. The buy backs do not seem to be sufficient to get the share count to drop over the long term, which is what I care about as a long term shareholder who does not trade his stock. It is outside my competence to understand what the correct rate of remuneration is for risk-taking, for performance that meets targets and for work done, so I voted in favour of all the resolutions, but I do not like seeing the share count rise over the long term to my detriment. The dividend is nice to receive but no good if it results in a loss to me through dilution from having to issue more shares to pay for the dividends missed out on by those having awards vest three years later.
Some people here still do not understand buybacks need to be done below intrinsic value otherwise they are at best value-neutral or value-destructive (never pay Ā£1.20 for Ā£1 of present value of an expected profit stream). Pleasingly, our current CEO seems to understand this - he used the correct form of wording last time. The problem arises with some posters failing to understand what a share is: yes, they know how to subtract shares (in the ways accounting rules dictate) but have forgotten what a share actually is, an entitlement to an expected profit stream, so one should take care not to overpay when doing buybacks.
The below is of course wrong...
That would support the view that each fork is worth more. But it omits the fact that the pie DID get smaller - money left the company (sellers of shares received it). The fewer forks remaining lift a smaller pie.
" This, all thing being equal, should result in the share price rising."
How so?
All things being equal the size of the pie hasn't changed. There are less forks and those forks lift a slightly bigger slice but the pie hasn't gotten bigger.
If the Ceyhan export route opens up again then this debate will become to a degree immaterial assuming of course all of the IOC's current contractual arrangements and other issues are settled accordingly
Last post: belgrano, 23 Jun 2024 10:56
Hi Broadford,
I doubt the IOC's would even consider trucking operations that might be construed as illegal by Iraq and used as an excuse for contract termination. Also lots of obstacles to overcome if even thinking of going down this path.
However trucking operations by the KRG or their appointed "partners", know the routes, contacts, and have control of border security on both sides, so ideal for them to control.
I expect things might get "difficult", if the oil companies even tried to do likewise. I actually believe impossible, to exit border posts for example. Clearly the maths are lucrative, and the KRG did it for years before the export pipeline was commissioned.
As we both know the KRG get several financial bites of the cherry if trucking crude from GKP sites to "local refiners". So its very much in their best interest to keep operations smooth.
Surely none of us would ever object to an index related bonus to our hallowed BoD.
Even if they have been incapable of expanding the business, recovering our debts and selling oil to the tribal leaders for dubious re-exporting (which may come back to bite us), and using our working capital to buyback the next tranch of shares (for safe but sterile keeping āin treasuryā).
Rather begs the question: If the opportunists (being polite here) were able to get so many trucks for their "exporting endeavors", why weren't the oil companies able, or willing, to do the same?
Were they unwilling, and if so, why? Or did the KRG have its own agenda?
It's a rat's nest indeed.
After listening to our company presentation carefully it does appear to me that the stance has noticeably changed regarding opening of the export pipeline.
Its not just who controls the crude purse strings anymore its grown into a full rats nest of lies and deceit with many parties with hidden agendas. Majority of which has been orchestrated by the lying Iraqi oil ministers. He even praised the recent meeting as "good progress". What planet is he on.?
Clearly we now have a full scale export trucking operation in full swing. Baghdad knows this and probably why they are more than hesitant on the purse strings when giving the KRG their share of the budget.
Clearly eye watering profits are being paid, and I dont believe that the IOC's are being given fair compensation for the crude produced. However they are getting paid quickly and its starting to increase ....I expect this is due to the fact that those making literally Billions from all the IOC's combined have realised that they must give the IOC's more of the "cake" , in order in some cases to service debts and provide enough income to get things back to a semblance of normal.
Now the realisation is kicking in that we are in for the long haul I'd expect crude prices paid to keep ticking up with the permission of the controlling paymasters of the trucking operations.
Make no mistake this is operations on a huge scale employing hundreds of staff. Clearly this exports are under the radar, which is why OPEC wants to see it with SOMO control and accountability.
However it seems to be growing in scale and profitability so unlikely the KRG will actually show Baghdad our IOC contracts and its going very well indeed for them right now, so why change things as they know Baghdad will then exercise its new monetary muscle to subjugate Kurdistan. They just don't trust them and going by what we've seen I'd tend to agree.
So I look forward to slowly increasing "local sales", and probably increasing rate of pay for the crude. I actually believe we are better off allied with Kurdistan than Iraq, although as we all know it is a bit like the wild west.
Https://youtu.be/m47CCuaexew?si=cP-3hEk6SYxyfLuP
Listening to that there is no way iraq will agree to what the IOCs want. Local sales till next September.
Chill out and take your dividends for another year everyone. The buybacks are only for the BOD bonuses later down the road
Started: money2mojo, 22 Jun 2024 13:01
Last post: belgrano, 22 Jun 2024 17:10
It's exploring surety of payment for the IOC's.
Too long have the oil companies waited with hands out for some monies or in many cases no payment at all. We are owed over 150M which is not small beer by any standards.
Might be one small part of the issue, but quite frankly those items were known well over a year ago. Still got to counter the unacceptable contract terms and the ridiculous time scale for payment of monies owed. They are trying to impose on the IOC's while in some cases paying Chinese companies up to 30%. Clear double standards from the lying Iraqi ministers. Even if they agree the Iranian loving majority of MP's will scupper any deal regardless
Started: R2D2., 21 Jun 2024 22:22
Last post: Jxp101, 22 Jun 2024 06:40
@R2D2 - takeover is a very likely situation once everything is resolved. This company is a gold mine once the dust settles. Even with no exports dividends are being paid and more dividends to come. No debt in itself is what gkp has achieved. I see huge upside potential long term. Easily Ā£5-Ā£10
Been here 12 plus years ....lots of T..ts on this boardšāāļø however bring on a takeover 2Billion min........
Started: Invstrat, 21 Jun 2024 15:46
Last post: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 17:18
On one hand complimenting GKPs senior management on their work and our returns in very difficult circumstances in a very difficult and dangerous part of the World. On the other hand issuing criticism for a salary and bonus package that will be far lower than the bosses of a British supermarket.
A) Are we selling oil locally - knowing that it will be illegally exported ?
There may be repercussions further down the line from this.
B) Was there a vote taken to hold future buybacks āin treasuryā ?
I think we need to watch this Old Dodge carefully and scream when it is triggered - we all know in whose pockets these treasured shares will end up in.
Started: Jenslehman, 21 Jun 2024 17:15
Last post: Jenslehman, 21 Jun 2024 17:15
Well one will enjoy this little divi..
Thank you gkp. I'll raise a rattler to you
Last post: Victor384, 21 Jun 2024 16:37
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 12:39
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 21 Jun 2024 15:13
I'm a double numpty, just found the webcast on the GKP website š
I'm a numpty and didn't realise I had to register to attend online today, did anyone get the answer to what the BOD thinks are the possibilities when the pipeline contract comes to an end next year?
The dividend resumption and buy back has been instigated by GKP's optimism that exports could be back up and running in the not too distant future?
just a thought
Started: sjward, 21 Jun 2024 14:28
Last post: Just-Another-Bot, 21 Jun 2024 14:41
Share price currently 0.18
"sjward
Posted in: VAST
Posts: 26
Price: 0.34
No Opinion
Daz20 Jan 2020 17:50
Get in tomorrow mate. Finance news and the big diamonds news in pipeline. Volume going up big and all technicals pointing upwards. After being cynical this morning I must admit I finally got in at 0.32p for 1M shares. Go with the flow. All the way to 0.55p even before diamonds news. Gla"
Uncovering the Companies Involved in Kurdistan's Illicit Oil Trade with Iran and Turkey
This report, published in Kurdish by Erbil's Bwar News website, exposes the major players and staggering profits involved in smuggling crude oil from the Kurdistan Region to Iran and Turkey.
For months, four companies have been illicitly transporting over 700 tankers laden with 160,000 barrels of crude daily across borders into these neighboring countries.
Powerful local business conglomerates have established dedicated front companies to facilitate this underground oil trafficking operation from Kurdistan's fields:
ā¢ In Erbil, Makal (affiliated with KAR Group) receives crude from Khurmala in Erbil operated by Forza, exporting it through Haji Omeran and Ibrahim Khalil border crossings.
ā¢ Pator smuggles oil from Erbil and Duhok into Iran through Sulaimani province via Bashmakh and Parwizkhan borders - For each tanker to pass into the PUK zone, a charge of $300-360 per tanker is applied.
ā¢ Unicode (tied to Lanaz Group) transports Duhok's crude to Iran and Turkey.
ā¢ Hydrocarbon Company (linked to Qaywan Group) trafficks fuel from Sulaimani and Koya into Iran.
Once in Iran, Kurdistan's oil is funneled to ports like Bandar Imam, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, where specialized facilities prep the crude for global export.
While most goes to Iran, portions also reach Turkey, with a portion sent to the TĆ¼praÅ Batman refinery and the remainder to the Antakya and Mersin refineries.
Oil producers sell to these trafficking firms at cut-rate $28-$33 per barrel, which resell at $60 - a $25 discount to global prices, netting immense profits.
Specifically, DNO, Genel Energy, Taqa, and HKN sell oil at $31.50 per barrel in Duhok province, while Forza, Khurmala, Ain Zala, and Sufaya sell at $32 per barrel, and Sheikhan oil is sold at $28 per barrel.
These oil producers sell between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels daily to the four companies and domestic refineries, generating over $200 million monthly for producers like DNO, Genel, Taqa and HKN. But the real windfall is for the smuggling companies, raking in around $150 million each month.
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 07:56
Last post: PUTUP, 21 Jun 2024 13:47
EDIT: "can't simply look"
"This was trading at Ā£3 when oil was going through the pipeline but you think Ā£2 is fair value? "
Fair value for 48k production and a ratified contract with current terms
What was the cost of Brent then? Much higher
Were they paying a discount for KBT then? No
Have they paid capital OUT of the company since then in the form of dividends and, lately, buybacks? Yes
Were expected volumes higher then vs now? Yes
Was field capacity higher then versus now? Yes
Are risks higher now than then? Yes
You can simply look at the historical price and ignore context
@putup āvolume in June disappoints.
- uptick in price by $1 is good but not enough to offset drop in volume ā
The reason for the volume in June was lack of truckers due to Eid.
Buybacks, interim dividend (5.4p) with promise of more dividends but what keeps you up is the volume in June š
ākeep my Ā£2 year end fair value estimate (Ā£1.48 ex receivables) predicated on a return to exports and full recovery of receivables (both of which look vulnerable to revision).ā
This was trading at Ā£3 when oil was going through the pipeline but you think Ā£2 is fair value? If the pipeline opens the terrain will have changed and we will be in uncharted territory. The pipeline opening means a recognition by Iraq of gkp and that alone will add Ā£s to the price. All dependent on concessions made by gkp.
Atb to all shareholders
"I keep my Ā£2 year end fair value estimate "
Cum dividend price. Ex div estimate will rate downward by dps.
Re fundamentals
- volume in June disappoints
- uptick in price by $1 is good but not enough to offset drop in volume
- volumes to be further affected by required work at PF 1
- cash balances as expected/modeled
Nothing else of note
I keep my Ā£2 year end fair value estimate (Ā£1.48 ex receivables) predicated on a return to exports and full recovery of receivables (both of which look vulnerable to revision).
Started: schlemiel, 21 Jun 2024 11:13
Last post: PUTUP, 21 Jun 2024 12:18
2024 LTIP approved...by 99% of votes. š³
Started: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: Unwin, 21 Jun 2024 11:52
Hey, no worries. My risk profile changed, thatās my story. I was heavily down at one point and averaged in lower like you. I might be back yet though!
Good luck anyway
No Unwin Iām not calling you a liar Apologies if it came across that way. What I did say was that you sold @146. You then backed that up with reasons. Fair enough because you announced what you did at the time, which is honest compared to all of those that announced what they did (probably) later
Personally, like you, I announced what I did at the time. Unlike you , as a buyer @ 89 and 95. my fist purchases however were @ 146 + and in that respect my patience is still required
ah, so youāre calling me a liar rog.
what makes you think i sold when the shares were 134?
i took a chance expecting a fall on the agm. it didnāt work out, ho hum lifeās a ***** sometimes.
my patience ran out, well done to those who made a few quid.
iām evens with my shirt and i canāt be ****d with the stress anymore.
If thereās two words that Iāve posted here over and over again since my first purchase of GKP shares alongside my very first post on here shortly after the pipeline closure, they were āPatience Requiredā today itās looking more like Patience Rewarded, that said the shares were trading between 220 and 320 when I first took an interest. Surly those levels are back on the agenda.
Re. The losers No. one being Itzanidiot who never had the balls to buy because he claimed GKP were heading towards 90p As for āUnwinā claiming to have sold on a recent high of 146 (when the shares were 134ish. ) ā Unwonā seems more appropriate.
Last post: Victor384, 21 Jun 2024 11:16
Started: rogthegamer, 21 Jun 2024 08:30
Last post: johnnybegood80, 21 Jun 2024 10:24
Jonnybegood
(LOL) No apology. Not man enough ?
Calling me a person that complains. No, quite the reverse because Iām blessed in life. So much so that I could afford to put my money where my mouth was when I continually said that GKP was a buy and said here āPatience Requiredā
A āJonnyā was something that I used in my youth. FFS literally!
I also asked about the possibility of a substantial increase in size of tankage. Even the really large tanks are not terribly expensive, and its almost a case of use it just once and its paid for itself. Plus could hire out ullage to other companies.
Just take recent report, where due to holiday tucking availability a bit short, then couple it to a forthcoming shutdown for maint. Would enable steady full production to be continued.
LOL
Jonnnybegood
That is an insult
I have maintained a positive stance on GKP when so many others were pessimistic.
With regards to the buyback And as I said before with the purpose in part being to increase a share price that the company said was significantly undervalued why reduce buying when the price increased a little. Now it has increased further therefore it was a mistake. That is a fact NOT a complaint. Please apologise.
Rogthegamer, still complaining? FFS!
Blue horse shoe loves GKP!
Started: Jxp101, 21 Jun 2024 09:40
Last post: Jxp101, 21 Jun 2024 09:40
World War III could make this into a Ā£10bn company. I hold 80,000 shares. All purchased during Covid-19 for 75p. Love GKP.