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Not back in but watching, need a bit more evidence and what the new deal looks like for GKP, not fussed in getting in as low as possible with plenty of opportunity as and when any guaranteed deal is done.
https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/22050
Experts optimistic about resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export issue during Erdogan's visit.
2024-04-21 14:36:53 | Last update : 2024-04-21 15:46:42
Experts foresee resolution of Iraq-Türkiye oil export deadlock during Erdogan's upcoming visit, potentially easing tensions between Erbil and Baghdad
The outcome tomorrow depends solely on what’s in it for the Erdogan familly….. remember where we are, and what the hidden agenda for all participants always comes down to.
Fingers crossed (yet again) however.
Good evening,
My question is, to what extent can Erdogan move the dial on this situation? Turkey have already said the pipeline their side it ready. In my view, the sticking point now seems to be with the IOCs and Baghdad (for operational restart via new contracts) and between IOCs and KRG (regarding monies owed).
Anyone have any thoughts?
I think this is a key moment. Would expect a big move on open tomorrow.
It sounds to me like Baghdad are going to bypass Kurdistan and export via the now repaired Iraq pipeline to Turkey?
In non of the press releases does Sudani or the oil minister state export from Kurdistan.
“Iraq has completed the repair of the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Fishkhabur, where test shipments of oil have been conducted.”
https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/22050
Dunno what you're reading...
@john78846295
https:// www. kurdistan24. net/en/story/34657-Turkish-President-to-meet-Iraqi-PM-in-Baghdad,-key-agreements-expected
hxxps://www.iraqinews. com/ iraq/baghdad-erbil-negotiate-to-resume-northern-oil-exports
That was 5 mins of looking 0_o
FCFY
Yes that may well be correct and the lack of a positive price movement on Friday backs that up. However Erdogan will also visit Kurdistan. To say what “ I’ve just sold you out via another pipeline “ I doubt it and as we gave less than ten minutes before the market opens the price will be interesting.
By the way I doubt that anyone would rely upon a pipe that runs for many miles beside a potentially hostile Kurdistan.
Here’s a translation from a link that @gavsgear posted previously.
“According to Al-Lajmawi, the visit will also witness "the signing of a strategic framework agreement within the security, economic, and development fields, and progress in the water and energy files, and the process of resuming the export of Iraqi oil through Turkey”
Three clauses there, will be interesting to see what he signs, which bits get progressed but remain unsigned and which bits are still being processed by the time he leaves.
Believe it is a glimmer only, like to think more, but the Iraqi oil ministers are full of double dealing, while saying one thing but doing the opposite.
However Turkey does have a lot of money tied up in Kurdish IOC's and the export pipeline.
If Iraq is trying to rush the alternative pipeline into service the only reason is to try and hammer kurdistan more. Just unfortunate that the IOC's are pawns in the middle of the struggle.
Clearly top of his list is Kurdistan oil exports, while water is clearly being held as a bargaining chip. Iraq has got plenty of "flunky", things for him to sign but clearly that's not why he's here.
Much more promising, light at tunnel end possibly. well worth a read.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34657-Turkish-President-to-meet-Iraqi-PM-in-Baghdad,-key-agreements-expected
How does Erdogan intend paying off Turkey’s ICC fine of $1.5B (and mounting) ?
Hope Baghdad have not made a backdoor deal to starve out Kurdistan from exporting through Turkey’s pipes in return for waiving the fine ?
Then again ….. nothing would surprise around here.
From ADVFN
OPEC has called on the Iraqi Oil Minister to allow the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to resume oil exports.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has officially asked the Federal Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani to allow the export of oil from the Kurdistan Region through the Turkish port, a source in the Federal Oil Ministry told Iraqi media.
According to the same source, OPEC has asked the Iraqi oil minister to allow the Kurdistan Regional Government to export 200,000 barrels of oil per day through the Turkish port.
What was the Iraqi oil minister's response to OPEC's request? The source said Hayyan Abdul Ghani has sent the request to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani and is awaiting his response.
The Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline has been suspended since March 25, 2023. The pipeline has the capacity to export 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. However, it has not exported that much oil so far, and what was exported before the suspension was 450,000 barrels per day.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/256559
Be careful. You might not have translated that correctly 🙃
I still don't understand how any announcement can change anything.
The issue is with the IOCs and ICG (contracts), right?
What am I not seeing lads?
My (only a year into this so not experienced) thought is it's because there hasn't any will to engage with opening to the pipeline from the IOC energy ministers, the contracts were merely used as an excuse and football to make it look as if something was happening, the political will and pressure has now built up to a point where it looks likely that we contractual issue will be resolved one way or the other and miles coggins said in a recent interview he expected or anticipates at least, new contracts being signed. Given how quick APIKUR have been to stomp on any suggestion that negotiations are taking place they haven't said anything negative about that recently.
MoUs are just an agreement to agree, without any real legal status.
BUT economics will eventually outweigh politics...it just takes time for the politicians to realise this simple economic truth.
The ITP will re-open because it's in every party's interest that it does.
The rest is about negotiating the terms. And that will affect the timescale.
APIKUR have no place at that table. Their amalgam is too weak, too disparate and too different in terms of the independent members' financial structure.
However, JH does have muscle , because GKP sit in a different space where they can control their own destiny due to their chequered and re-structured financial history and the benevolence of LTHs.
As a consequence, while JH cannot influence geopolitical affairs, he can at least determine GKP's response to those outcomes. While still making money.
Hopefully he'll do that in the best interests of us lot.
Given his actions over the last three plus years I have confidence in his motives and judgment.
Until I don't.
Hi Mendoza,
Quite frankly I don't believe its anything to do with the IOC contracts, that's the excuse they like to hide behind. The truth is its all about bringing Kurdistan under the heel of Iraq, and squashing all dreams of independence.
They could have easily tweaked the law to allow payments equivalent to our current contract terms. Indeed Iraq actually pays more to other oil companies so not unique.
However they do need Turkish water and Turkey wants Kurdish crude, as its also invested heavily in the Kurdish IOC's along with the Kurdish pipeline.
Belgrano, are you sure that Iraq pays more for other oil companies?
The PSA-s (Profit Sharing Agreement) that I checked pay around 40% less remuneration vs the Kurd PSC-s (profit oil).
(Although you can argue that Kurdistan is riskier and its harder to extract oil, so higher compensation is justified... But who cares if they just wanted to bring the kurds to their knees?..)
Thanks for the response Belgrano.
I also think the key dynamic here is the desire to undermine KRG economic autonomy/extend ICG economic control. In my view, ICG can wait, whereas KRG (specifically KDP) maybe cannot wait as long. More time that passes, the more likely Kurds will be willing to accept the new realities - we are already seeing that with ICG paying salaries. KDP as far as I know are still boycotting the local elections (I think they are the only ones to do so, too - probably because they have the most to lose from this new reality, but continuing their boycott illustrates their isolation).
All that context aside, in my mind the key news I am looking out for is what I think will most likely happen: IOCs such as GKP going to ICG/SOMO to discuss new contracts - totally outside the purview of KRG.
Probably less favourable than current PSC, but in exchange we get legality, contractual certainty. Implication for recovering debt is not good; Baghdad clearly see that as a separate issue between KRG and IOCs. Fine.
IMO it's GKP's turn to approach Baghdad and start talking about new contracts. Us hiding behind any PSCs made with the KRG is not helping us move forward - especially when Baghdad have repeatedly called them illegal etc...
Small holding compared to some on here I'm sure. I'm averaging at 113, and love to see the SP above that. Not been trading it, holding out for a new operating scenario/rerate and dividends - but it is wild to watch the swings in SP. Once the real news actually breaks, this thing is going to pop~~~
Sen,
You might be onto something there.
Contractually, pretty sure JH couldn't make representations to the ICG about re-negotiating contracts well established with the KRG.
But the ICG will almost certainly have been in contact with GKP to have those 'chats' and 'off piste'.
Why not? It's a significant field which is self-funded. And debt free. And capable of producing 100k bopd.
If I was representing the ICG, I would be pretty interested in that proposition.
Wouldn't you?
Don't forget from the ICG perspective the basic principle is to divide and rule...in this case APIKUR.
I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors.
Because it matters to all participants.
"I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors. "
Unfortunately the IOCs aren't involved in 99% of it. GKP isn't anyway...
Business is business.
Not talking to GKP would be stupid if you're part of the ICG.
Off the record, in smoked filled rooms, without natural consequence or reproach.
Please tell me you know how these things work!!!
Three-point action plan
1. JH/GKP gets a confirmation in writing from the ICG/Iraq federal court that the PSC with KRG is illegal, and thus null/void (which Baghdad have been saying all along anyway).
Frees him from current PSC (which is simply dead in the current circumstances – so quicker we mourn and move on, the better).
PSC with KRG now a separate matter. Separate committee/litigation between GKP/KRG. Whatever.
2. JH/GKP begin bilateral negotiations on new contract terms with ICG/SOMO. Make the case regarding sunk costs/ investment recoverable/ etc.
New contact – less lucrative, but legal and gives certainty.
Move forward
Sunshine and rainbows
3. Profit????
APIKUR was a good move, they tried it, but it’s not conducive for progress now. Lack of statement, movement etc. following the US visit shows that. It served a purpose but like Mr Caggings said, oil companies will be the ones signing contracts and that will be that.
This won't be settled in the courts.
This will be settled by heavyweight and painful negotiation.
But we sit well in this environment because of the Re-structure; thank you LTHs. Genuinely.
Lots of pain I can only imagine.
And Caggins III won't be leading it. He'll be filling his pants in his cot with a very red pushing face.
Who the hell voted him in?
I doubt it was a vote. How could it be?
"Please tell me you know how these things work!!!"
I do. And still... nada. "Patience still required." The time to get excited is when JH is actually having significant meaningful discussions.