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website still doesn't list GDR kit!
I think first sales in June may be just a sale order but we don't know how big that would be to warrant RNS.
Based on Walbrook response that I received, it seems that GDR is still being evaluated by the customers!
Product is CE marked but customers are not buying the product just because it is CE marked! The data from CE marking has gone to Sysmex on May 22nd and it is now end of 2nd week so most likely next week Sysmex will have the product listed and they will talk to their customers to get orders so looks like we will not have any news about Sales until July.
Only hope is news about WHO approval before July or atleast RNS about another distribution partner.
Here is the Walbrook response -
"
It has only been 7 working days since CE marking was granted – and the data that will have come in as part of the CE marking is only be available to Sysmex following the announcement on Friday 22 May. They won’t begin full marketing of the product openly on their website immediately as major distributors will tend to get customer referrals / evaluations undertaken first and this is what they are doing at the moment.
Any distribution agreements will be reviewed on a case for case basis in terms of whether they merit a regulatory announcement – if they come with significant obligations to purchase minimum numbers of test then this is likely to warrant an announcement, compared to a distribution agreement with no associated orders. I would expect that first sales orders and subsequent significant orders would be the subject of stock exchange announcements, if and when they come through.
"
@smalltrader you do know we're only 4 days into June right? I'm not sure how you've decided sales news is now not until July... Try that optimistic hat on for size again
based on that response from Walbrook, it looks like they will issue RNS for the first sales order irrespective of how big that is? If the subsequent orders are big enough then RNS will be announced.
Well scart that is the difference in the thinking when your avg price of GDR investment is under 80p. Unfortunately mine is above 150p.
@smalltrader patience is the reason I bought in at 28p, held and continue to still be invested - as well as topping up my initial investment every 10p drop from 190p to 140p... I even cleverly topped up at 240p on the day of the placing. So in all honesty you have no clue what my current average price is, even if I've ever said it in the past (which I'm not sure I have).
Whatever my average price though it doesn't change my approach to making what I believe are good investments (apart from that 240p... but that's hindsight because when it shot up to almost £3 after it was a good one) and being capable of being patient.
However, being 4 days into a 30 day month in which we're expecting sales news and then panicking already saying you actually don't think it will come until July will give you pointless stress for the next couple of weeks. Again, average price doesn't come into this, that would be more about how quickly you want to see a profit.
Almost 2 weeks to the day people worried about the CE mark potentially not being achieved before the deadline (even though it was only a target) had even passed, the next day or so the news landed. That was with days to go, so even though I felt that was totally unnecessary at the time it was actually far more reasonable a discussion to have than worrying about sales news not coming in until July when we have weeks to go - again, on a target.
Given the tests went out for clinical evaluations almost 2 weeks ago, I'm hopeful of orders within the next 2 weeks, if that doesn't happen then I might start wondering what's going on and take any concerns a bit more seriously.
@saint-tropez it's going to depend upon the availability of raw materials as to how much it can be ramped up, but GDR's own capacity is >10,000hr and from this statement I don't think they could achieve say 20,000 themselves.
I would personally prefer them to say we've secured the necessary resources and organised logistics to run production pretty much 24/7 at 10,000/hr before they consider any third party agreements for manufacturing. That would be over 7M tests a month, or over £50M revenue, and definitely does me for starters.
@saint-tropez given none of us know the longevity of the virus if it came to it I would personally rather they outsourced additional manufacturing than plough money into fixed assets that might never get used again in say 6/12 months time. imo the forecasts you mentioned are based off of a conservative estimate of raw material supply, ramp this up and GDR's weekly revenue will rocket. As I mentioned, if they can run their production line 24/7 then you're talking over £10M/week. Crazy numbers and probably far too unrealistic really, but imagine if they can get to even half that, they'd make the current mcap in less than 3 months...
Some earlier comments rather unfair on the CEO in my opinion. In a few months GDR have taken from concept a test kit through to CE marking and pending approvals from FDA and WHO. The qu ality of their PCR test is superior to Novacyts in terms of sensitivity which will stop their being false negatives. And unlike Avacta they actually have a product they can sell, which I’m sure they are as I write. Also the added advantage of not requiring cold storage is a massive plus when pitching to India and Brazil and other global markets.