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You all know how much time and effort that I have put into GCM, and also that I am very positive that eventually we will hopefully get the green light, so please don’t think that by writing this post I am being negative because I certainly don’t mean to be, but it is starting to concern me a little that so many are now expecting to get the green light at the China meeting next week.
Yes, we may get some positive news, or even maybe an indication that positive news is on the way, but so far the facts are that we know that several MoU’s are going to be signed, and that PM Hasina has said openly that she wants China to look at projects in the South of the country in order to develop that area. We also know that the Chinese are not happy about India speaking to PM Hasina about them doing the Teesta River project, so I am sure that China will be spending time on ensuring that they are given this project and not the Indians.
Now to the crunch and my worry, although obviously there will be other areas and other major projects that I am sure will be discussed and agreed, as yet we have not had any leaks in the press or any mention or hints from any politicians about the fact that Phulbari open pit mining is on the agenda. I know that we have had some really strange trading patterns, and looked to be controlled in a very tight range recently which has raised many questions, but with the potential value for this project, if others really thought that we were going to get the green light next week, do we really think that the volume would be as low as it has been over the last couple of weeks…. 🤷♂️
As I say, I am not being negative and would be absolutely over the moon if we finally got the green light after all these years, but just wanted to calm expectations, so that if we don’t have any major news, we don’t have a major sell off….
I hope you take this post with the intent that it is meant…
Thanks for your thoughts Searcher, seem very reasoned and I for one agree with them, like everyone on here it stacks up like a no brainer to mine Phulbari but there are only a few in the know. GLA
Searcher, if we do not get the green light next week, we will not see a sell off.
Too many people have spent too long building some sort of holding here for that to happen.
Next week may just be the start of the approval route, the GoB will probably start to say that they are looking at OPM and mining at other sites.
Then they will want the modality, this is where our two new appointees will come in.
From there it will be a framework, timetable, more MOU`s and notice served to farmers. They will need to ensure rice is imported in sufficient amounts to compensate for the loss of crops when the overburden removal starts.
I expect this will start in 6-9 months time.
During this time we will hopefully see our SP increase with a possible dual listing.
I’ve always thought the biggest obstacle with getting approval is GCM being seen as westerners running off with Bangladesh’s Crown Jewels and selling it back to them , it has occurred to me it would be ideal to announce phulbari in the middle of a whole host of other projects with there great partners , China. It would soften the blow and make it more palatable to the people of Bangladesh,
Also the last time they was going to give approval and it was all out in the open it gave the opposition time to mobilise and organise the riots that followed, maybe the have just decided to announce it out the blue , a done deal too late to go back , there has been plenty of time for those in the no to get there positions, fact is gcm run a tight ship and none of us no what’s coming so we will just have to wait and see but I honestly think it will all become clear fairly soon ,
Power China and the GOB just need to buy GCM or Phulbari fromGCM. For a fair price of course.
To add to what Bangla has said. We really do need to consider the actual powerful connections that a country like China has , they are a communist-run country after all! It will be their way or the highway in my eyes.
To add to the idea that they might mention it out of the blue .. so it doesn't create chaos is an interesting idea. Who's to say they can't control the press and the news outlets? Just a thought. They seem to be keeping their cards very close when they say that some projects will be developed.
- In an article about the upcoming visit to China:
Asked about probable documents to be signed, the Chinese leader said they expect agreements are going to be in many areas. "We do sign agreements and you know, we promise and we deliver," he added.
The Chinese own 25% of the Dhaka Stock Exchange. I am thinking aloud that GCM Resources will have a name change- 'Phulbari Coal and Minerals' ? and dual listing comes with 20 times the share issue with 30% stakes for PC and Bangladesh while connections get a chunky %, the rump GCM holders have 5% but keep that along with ongoing payout of profit. Announced as a new company with Bangladesh CEO.
MC leaps to £10bn, the 5% equates to £500m or £1.80/share.
If only...
But I can see a dual listing
Anyone in Bangladesh spilling the beans in the pregnant pause will get nobbled by Hasina. The whole Chinese summit and foreign trips have been prompted by the imminent OPM green light. Do contemplate removing that fact from the mix and what was the purpose of the activity seeing as most of the agenda otherwise has been discussed ad nauseam.
It is a strategic resource with geo-political implications.
Your opening post is a bit of a sorry one but I am sure your retirement will be a happy one Searcher on the assumption your searches will no longer be required.