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I’ve had conversations with many people the last 6 months, if they have any link to the project, why not? You don’t ask, you don’t get.
On a different note:
I’ve always felt one of the best ways to predict a future event is by studying the past, which brings me to the last time the 2 presidents met in 2016….
Let’s look at some the deals signed:
- China agreed to finance $5.52 billion for eight projects in the power and energy sector
- $6.64 billion for five rail projects
- $6.65 billion for four projects under Roads and Bridges Division
- $1.31 billion for five livelihood projects
- $1.15 billion for four projects in the ICT
Do we fall into any of them categories? Yes, the first one…so let’s look a little closer.
One of the projects signed was for a 1320 MW coal-fired power plant in Chittagong’s Banshkhali.
30,000 protest against mine being built. Four people were killed after police opened fire on the protesters. Witnesses said that 100 people were injured - this whole protestors and deaths isn’t exclusive to Phulbari, this is common place (unfortunately) in Bangla. Yet this mine was approved along with others, when the 2 president met.
Anyway after these deals were done, this is the type of language coming out of Bangla
Sheikh Hasina - ‘China has become our largest trading partner and we consider China as a trusted partner in realising our dreams too.’
Retired Lieutenant General Mahbubur Rahman - ‘ There has not been too many significant events in the history of Bangladesh equal to President Xi Jinping' visit. The Chinese president's visit has opened Bangladesh's golden door to immense prospects and potential developments’
Anyway back to Banshkhali -
https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/power-plant-profile-s-alam-banshkhali-power-plant-bangladesh/?cf-view
Familiar name?
Power Construction Corporation of China and SEPCOIII Electric Power Construction were selected to render engineering procurement construction services for the coal fired power project.
Bangladesh's geographic location makes it an irreplaceable link connecting India and China, and efforts to boost the local economy and improve infrastructure in Bangladesh could bring development momentum for the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
Phulbari is part of the Belt and Road initiative, it sits only a few miles off the Indian border and is very important strategically, Power China have hung around for as long as they have for a reason.
Are we going to get the go ahead in Hasina’s visit next week? Who knows, but it’s as good a time as any and makes the most sense. If not, hopefully the wait won’t be far away and we get an update confirming the same.
It’s important to reiterate the fact there’s been ample opportunity to say NO and put this to bed, that hasn’t happened…if it’s not a NO…then surely, a YES is coming.
Anyway, we’ll know soon enoug
You will lose him his job-see my previous....
Having watched a very old video from 10 years ago .. it listed some names of individuals who were helping with the project. I googled one and found him. He is an irrigation engineer in Bangladesh and was pretty confident he could supply water and keep the area in a good condition. I have thus found his email and thought should I contact him and ask what the general consensus is in Bangladesh, and is he still working on the project.
Bit of a stretch I know but might be worth a try.
Anyone in Bangladesh spilling the beans in the pregnant pause will get nobbled by Hasina. The whole Chinese summit and foreign trips have been prompted by the imminent OPM green light. Do contemplate removing that fact from the mix and what was the purpose of the activity seeing as most of the agenda otherwise has been discussed ad nauseam.
It is a strategic resource with geo-political implications.
Your opening post is a bit of a sorry one but I am sure your retirement will be a happy one Searcher on the assumption your searches will no longer be required.
If only...
But I can see a dual listing
The Chinese own 25% of the Dhaka Stock Exchange. I am thinking aloud that GCM Resources will have a name change- 'Phulbari Coal and Minerals' ? and dual listing comes with 20 times the share issue with 30% stakes for PC and Bangladesh while connections get a chunky %, the rump GCM holders have 5% but keep that along with ongoing payout of profit. Announced as a new company with Bangladesh CEO.
MC leaps to £10bn, the 5% equates to £500m or £1.80/share.
To add to what Bangla has said. We really do need to consider the actual powerful connections that a country like China has , they are a communist-run country after all! It will be their way or the highway in my eyes.
To add to the idea that they might mention it out of the blue .. so it doesn't create chaos is an interesting idea. Who's to say they can't control the press and the news outlets? Just a thought. They seem to be keeping their cards very close when they say that some projects will be developed.
- In an article about the upcoming visit to China:
Asked about probable documents to be signed, the Chinese leader said they expect agreements are going to be in many areas. "We do sign agreements and you know, we promise and we deliver," he added.
Power China and the GOB just need to buy GCM or Phulbari fromGCM. For a fair price of course.
I’ve always thought the biggest obstacle with getting approval is GCM being seen as westerners running off with Bangladesh’s Crown Jewels and selling it back to them , it has occurred to me it would be ideal to announce phulbari in the middle of a whole host of other projects with there great partners , China. It would soften the blow and make it more palatable to the people of Bangladesh,
Also the last time they was going to give approval and it was all out in the open it gave the opposition time to mobilise and organise the riots that followed, maybe the have just decided to announce it out the blue , a done deal too late to go back , there has been plenty of time for those in the no to get there positions, fact is gcm run a tight ship and none of us no what’s coming so we will just have to wait and see but I honestly think it will all become clear fairly soon ,
This part made me laugh out loud…. 😂😂😂😂
“They, however, cannot indulge in such activities during office hours, according to the draft ”
I wonder, if some people are in the know, will this let the cat of of the box ?
Upon approval from relevant authorities, government employees will be able to buy or sell primary shares or bonds of any company registered with the share market. They, however, cannot indulge in such activities during office hours, according to the draft The Daily Star correspondent has seen.
Under the existing rules, government officials are not allowed to engage in the speculative trading of stocks.
The government had been trying to amend the existing Government Servants (Conduct) Rules, 1979, for six years, but could not finish the job. Recently, the move gained momentum. The move comes at a time when several government officials' corruption was exposed by the media.
https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/govt-may-let-its-employees-trade-stocks-3647466
Searcher, if we do not get the green light next week, we will not see a sell off.
Too many people have spent too long building some sort of holding here for that to happen.
Next week may just be the start of the approval route, the GoB will probably start to say that they are looking at OPM and mining at other sites.
Then they will want the modality, this is where our two new appointees will come in.
From there it will be a framework, timetable, more MOU`s and notice served to farmers. They will need to ensure rice is imported in sufficient amounts to compensate for the loss of crops when the overburden removal starts.
I expect this will start in 6-9 months time.
During this time we will hopefully see our SP increase with a possible dual listing.
Thanks for your thoughts Searcher, seem very reasoned and I for one agree with them, like everyone on here it stacks up like a no brainer to mine Phulbari but there are only a few in the know. GLA
You all know how much time and effort that I have put into GCM, and also that I am very positive that eventually we will hopefully get the green light, so please don’t think that by writing this post I am being negative because I certainly don’t mean to be, but it is starting to concern me a little that so many are now expecting to get the green light at the China meeting next week.
Yes, we may get some positive news, or even maybe an indication that positive news is on the way, but so far the facts are that we know that several MoU’s are going to be signed, and that PM Hasina has said openly that she wants China to look at projects in the South of the country in order to develop that area. We also know that the Chinese are not happy about India speaking to PM Hasina about them doing the Teesta River project, so I am sure that China will be spending time on ensuring that they are given this project and not the Indians.
Now to the crunch and my worry, although obviously there will be other areas and other major projects that I am sure will be discussed and agreed, as yet we have not had any leaks in the press or any mention or hints from any politicians about the fact that Phulbari open pit mining is on the agenda. I know that we have had some really strange trading patterns, and looked to be controlled in a very tight range recently which has raised many questions, but with the potential value for this project, if others really thought that we were going to get the green light next week, do we really think that the volume would be as low as it has been over the last couple of weeks…. 🤷♂️
As I say, I am not being negative and would be absolutely over the moon if we finally got the green light after all these years, but just wanted to calm expectations, so that if we don’t have any major news, we don’t have a major sell off….
I hope you take this post with the intent that it is meant…
Agreed the mm's are corrupt to the core, but quite often they're in bed with the company, or with key people within the company, its all fecking smokes and mirrors on AIM.
If anyone can say with 100% certainty they can read AIM I'll eat my own unwashed boxer shorts.. :-)
I think his point is the hangover of new shares has surely been hovered up and the Mm’s are corrupt as f**k!
Positive2021, and your point is??
We had 4m buys in a day last week. Hardly moved the price.
100,000 buys popping up. Strange no TR1’s recently
The Payra thermal power plant has resumed operation at full capacity after seven days of maintenance work. Currently, the country has an installed power generation capacity of 27,162 MW, with the majority produced by gas-fired plants (12,216 MW). Somoy. Production was halted at a 660 MW unit on June 24 for scheduled maintenance. “It went back into production on Monday (July 1), three days before the schedule,” its superintending engineer (operation) Shah Abdul Hasib said.
The plant was built in 2013 on 1,000 acres of land at Dhankhali in Kalapara upazila of Patuakhali, with joint investment from China and Bangladesh.
It has been supplying electricity to the national grid since 2020. The 1,320 MW plant meets 10 percent of the country's electricity demand and requires 12,000–13,000 metric tonnes of coal per day.
Currently, the country has an installed power generation capacity of 27,162 MW, with the majority produced by gas-fired plants (12,216 MW). Coal produces 6,604 MW, while the country currently imports 1,160 MW.
The government plans to generate 40,000 MW by 2030 and 60,000 MW by 2041.
https://en.somoynews.tv/news/2024-06-24/TPD90sA6
NewboF.
I think some news around the project will be mentioned, some sort of tacit approval, then we will go through the gears from there.
We have waited long enough, I suspect PowerChina will not want to wait any longer.
Bangladesh itself cannot put this off again. It needs to be implemented and quickly.
Pretty standard practice for GCM. Up one week, down the next, trading the range until any news.
Leak? Lots of buys just came in in a row there up we go
Finally moving on a few buys....
3 v 1