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My calculator has thrown a fuse keeping up with you 1GW but you raise a very good point.
Changing the topic for a moment, when it comes to fair value, it will be interesting to see if The Board turn to Edison again as they have done previously. Their current fair value price is £3.48.
It's encouraging to see there hasn't been a rush of existing holders to sell at the current premium being offered to the SPD price. So I think it's fair to say that existing holders would agree that fair value should be well above where we are today.
The board will be limited by the takeover code I think in terms of what they can say about current year results, with failry tight restrictions on "profit forecasts" and profit estimates". If they are expecting good year-end figures then they might want to accelerate the auditing of end-year accounts so that they can then disclose these. I don't know what the rules are on allowing someone like Edison access to data and "steers" during a takeover period, but they could presumably revisit previous analysis based on publicly available information.
What's the end-game though? That's the key thing isn't it? Is there any chance of SPD and the board being able to sit down and negotiate a deal which does give Findel holders proper "fair value" plus a premium for control? I can't believe it makes sense for SPD to sit there with over 30% of the company but all sorts of restrictions on access to data and input to strategy. And given where the share price currently sits, now might be as good a time as any for SPD to try to close this out. They could offer a very generous premium over the current price and still presumably be well within what they might have estimated as the total acquisition cost when they first bought in at £2/share or so.
We are all guessing at the moment as to what the end game is 1GW but my hunch is that The Board are pretty miffed (being as diplomatic as I can be) over MA's opportunistic strike, as all the evidence of recent past points towards them creating a really profitable company in the future and wanting to part of that journey. I am absolutely convinced they would want to be employees of MA and prefer to back themselves.
They have bought shares to demonstrate this and have lucrative options to further reward down the line. I have mentioned in previous posts other interest and my thinking here is that the Private Equity houses may well see a well run, hugely cash generative business that is currently undervalued and tempt the management into doing a deal that involves giving them a greater slice of the action for when they sell or re-list the business in say 3-5 years time.
I cannot come up with a suitable trade buyer but with the exchange rate still advantageous for possible overseas interest, this cant be ruled out.
In a perfect world, I would want to remain a shareholder in a business that is finally going places and I am really hacked off with developments but we are where we are, so I really hope MA is sent packing and one way or the other, a fair price is reflected /achieved in 'the end game'.
Correction: I missed the word ‘not’ in the sentence referring to being employees of MA. Apologies.
The duty and priority of any board of directors is to act in the best interest of the majority of shareholders. In this case 63.2 per cent of shareholders will be opposed to this hostile attempt at an under valued takeover. At this ridiculously discounted level virtually all shareholders will be losing money. To achieve maximum value the board must make it a priority to publish the 2018/19 accounts as quickly as possible. I am expecting a minimum EPS of 30 pence. Based upon this, anything under 300 pence a share and the board would be selling us out too cheaply.