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What a d0g5h1t share this has become
The commercial growth is massive and this year they will make around £650m profit. However the share price is in the grip of algorithm traders and short term holders.
It's stupid cheap but currently it's how it is
"What a d0g5h1t share this has become" - JG - I wouldn't fret too much matey - I have been adding all the way down here, currently down around 7pct, - not at all worried - capital seminar day on Thursday and results next month - algos and shorts can do what they want on no news but not on actual news - imho these shares will be bought back heavily prior to q3 results in July - shorts have already decreased in recent weeks- nobody wants to be short on good results and believe me and they will be good looking at passenger numbers of late -
dyor etc
I imagine I'm snatchiong, but I just added a few around 453.
@Stupmy. Likewise, yesterday I did a small top up at 450 based on nothing but gut feel and a belief this will come good. I was also ready to add further if it fell more. I was going to ask you if you felt it had bottomed out.
I don't think the bottom is in Thumper. I think we'll see 423 or lower and possibly 371 or lower. However, the question is 'when?'. Without claiming any expertise, my guess is that those levels will come either due to bad news re EZJ or more likely due to a larger market sell off. That sell off could be weeks or months away. In the meantime, I think we'll see some upside before that happens. I'm hoping we challenge the high of june 5th this year (around 491). That would be enough for me to make a profit. I'm hoping we break up beyond that and head to 527 or above. I'm guessing 535 might be a reasonable hope.
So I'm betting on some good trading, but further falls. I'd prefer the falls after the good trading if you see what I mean.
No-one can see into the future, so it's all a bit of a game.
Just don't really understand TA fully to see how this plays out. So your saying it could test those low's, but the TA can only be calculated off past events, and the future doesn't always play out that way. EG your saying in a few months, but we get a good read on inflation tomorrow, how does that impact? (seeing as the historical numbers that suggest those retests wont be at play) Then we have the Q3 update in July, which if the £650m profit is on track or better, would suggest an upwards move, again the historical numbers wouldn't even factor £650m profit as we haven't achieved that.
It's important to understand the volume dynamics. This year they have many more seats than last. New aircraft replace smaller in some cases adding 66 extra seats. Fuel costs for the extra people are almost zero as the aircraft is much more efficient. We have instant volume increases. New routes, new bases and premium returns on holiday bookings taking more airline seats than ever before.
easyJet grow from resources already in play and on established scale at new bases. Dominant in Bristol and Birmingham these hubs are getting strong investment with large catchment. Southend next year and extra resources at Málaga and Alicante major expat routes.
I think that they have everything right. Hopefully they can resolve the pilot issues soon and this will be a bumper summer. This quarter I would like to see £250m profit.
Thats the number I'm hoping as a minimum as it would show the trend is heading to the £650m, which would put the PE at 7.3, or translates to 650p if we keep current PE of 10.5. I get that the 10.5 PE effectively has some assumption on that growth but you get the point!
Q3 last year was £203 so it's a very comfortable step. I expect easyjet holidays to contribute £60m profit in Q3 a jump of around £11m. Again a very comfortable step. No easter in this Q3 unlike last year but it has been solid busy with few interruptions apart from operational challenges. They have significant additional capacity and reach over last year.
We'll see very close to £1bn H2 profit this year landing £650m for the year. This is based upon visible enlargement, they simply have to sell the seats now and fly without incident.
Yes I agree, I hope for more but based on published numbers.
Q3PY + 11% in revenue = £250m, (eg 8% increase in seats plus 3% on yield/holidays business, the latter was a prudent guess on my part
But Q1 and Q2 were both up 22% YoY so £250m is the minimum I'm expecting
Xita, you sound like a,Sapphire, I respect your views
Wait, what Stupmy ?
We could see 423 but could be 527, but possibly 371 or lower but 535 could be a reasonable hope.
You've taken a position but you dont think we've seen the bottom yet.
I mean, huh ?
One of the most ambiguous posts I've read on any board here over the years
Very good Jimmy, you're all over it. Goodbye
Jimmy, it's typical dross that stumpy comes out with. Complete nonsense. Not worth reading.
"goodbye" - pmsl, only pointed out a legit observation
Like i did the other day. Mystic Meg he is.
"my crystal ball is telling me the share price may go up, ........or it may go down"
I'm not saying there is no value in TA btw, just the non committal nature of it, of at least stumpy's interpretation of it.