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I bet the L3 and Yenz nicks are 2 shorters from Sweden.
Weny,
You have lost your bet. I am neither from Sweden (have been there only once!) and I have never shorted ENQ.
It might come a surprise to you, but there are people how do not post lies on these anonymous boards.
I post as if others knew my identity.
I would be betraying the way I was brought up if I were here to deceive others.
L3,
You claim to be long term holder.
But never wants to give an long term outlook given some prod/oil/capex assumptions.
So your just holding and praying for the best and trust in AB’s work?
It doesn’t add up as your obviously smart
This was interesting reading, you are all famous! :)
http://pumpedordumped.com/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=ENQ
Lol..Pelle - that's a first coming from you. And you even engage with Squidy. No wonder many posters on here **** L3 off as a deramper - with posts like that on hedging, who can fault them. ;-)
There's been lots of posts with numbers with some numbers from a variety of posters (squid - surprise, surprise, L7, L3). I'll try and respond to those, hopefully tomorrow when I come off my travels. Brent trending OK in the past few days and that's a comfort.
GL..
Hello E,
Lol.. we all different views here.
Squif, I still think hold.
He put up some reasonable numbers for 2019/20.
He just made it his thing being cynical and bitter for SP performance.
After these years, who can blame him?
Guess there other people out there reacted far worse
E121,
I know very well that whenever I criticize ENQ's hedging you just come out very very strongly defending the people at ENQ doing the hedging and defending ENQ's hedging policy.
It really hits a nerve on you (it should only hit the nerve of the ENQ employees who do the hedging or of any PR person who works for ENQ - you are neither, as otherwise you could not post here according to the laws that govern these BBs) when I write that ENQ's hedging since early 2018 has been poor. There must be some reason why that is the case. Perhaps, you could disclose what is at stake for you...
I do not engage in deception. Although I write anonymously, I always do so as if I were telling my opinions to people's faces.
So, I would be happy to tell them to ENQ's hedgers in charge or to you in person.
I have always written in a way that shows respect for your opinions, even if I do not always agree with them.
You should show the same courtesy towards me, instead of condoning or inciting others to call me names.
I have no problem that you correct my numbers or disagree with them, but I expect you to be civil.
That is all.
Hi Pelle,
Thank you for always being civil.
I say I am LTH holder because I am.
I have provided my projections for net debt H1 and year end several times. Also, for H1 production.
You would like me to say what my prediction for the oil price is. I have no idea, as there is much else besides demand&supply going on. I mean more than the usual. Can anyone predict what Trump is going to do tomorrow? No, not even Trump himself can do that... Who would think that he would come up with the idea of buying Greenland?
But, I would not be invested if different oil companies (the bulk of it on the European majors apart from Equinor) if I expected the POO to be below $60. As others, e.g., e121, have written multiple times, special attention needs to be placed on the US shalers. I am hoping for the price to be b/w $60 and $70 in 2020 and 2021. Whether it is going to be closer to $60 or $70, I do not know. My Call options mature in a few days. I have yet to decide whether I will rollover them.
Production for 2020 and 2021. I am counting on 70Kboepd (including the 6.5Kboepd that accrues to BP as a result of 75% of Magnus).
CAPEX: I doubt it will be possible to go below $175M because in year T you need to invest to produce from different areas in year T+1. So, like Londoner7 wrote I see further investment in Kraken. Also in Magnus, as there is some gas area in the licence.
Hope the above answers you questions.
Hopefully AS is headed to AK and everybody will be happy!
ATB
Hi L3
Then we very inline with our assumption for 2020/21 and also for H1 report.
Dont understand why you then question my future assumptions before?
Anyway, lets see who gets right about the final topic without mention the word your allergic to:-)
L3 - not civil..Hmm. Not sure if it was anything more than a poor choice of a few words, but I'll let that rest and won't labour on that topic. Inciting others, Lol..where's my pack hiding here - come on pack - it's time to squeeze L3. You can merrily give that notion a rest.
Turning to your favourite hedging topic that you bring up nearly every other time you post, you should know as a 'LTH' that ENQ was saved from 'disaster' in 2016 by their great hedging and I've pointed this out maybe a couple of times previously. All of $255 million gains were booked that year and it prevented an utter liquidity issue that would have no resulted otherwise. Hedging is a directional bet - it may or may not work out. You have other companies like Tullow who have done sweet FA when it comes to hedging. Does that make them bad - no, not from an operational execution viewpoint. Ditto for Enquest. Again, labouring on this is a symptom of 'summer slowness' and people wanting to have their opinions heard, in the absence of any real news.
Best
Hi Pelle,
Yes I am a holder. Jumped on this share in October 2014 when brent headed south and despite booking a profit in may 2015 jumped in again and have regretted it but that's life. Did I understand Enquest when I invested then - no not at all. I have learnt an awful lot. I have been incredibly frustrated at times and did not realise how close the company was to going belly up in september 2016 and probably glad with hindsight that I didnt know how bad things really were. I think that I have a much better handle on the numbers now after lot of trial and error but this is a minefield of debts at a fairly high rate imo average 9%. My frustration with AB is driven by the fact that he is the largest owner so what the company can and can't achieve is entirely up to him. I believe that he has made some big mistakes that we as share holders are paying the price for but he has also made some good decisions obviously. Nevertheless, in the cold light of day we have injected close to 250M USD, as Epic writes they made a profit of 250M on hedging in 2016, they have got Magnus at a steal and still we are languishing with a sp below both rights issues and a market cap of 350M USD: That in my opinion is gross incompetence given where Enquest was 7 years ago (of course times have changed). It is large scale capital destruction and debtors have laughed all the way to the bank. We have been outperformed by our peers (PMO, TLW) who have a much better P/E (6 v 2) and in any other company the CEO would be gone. Enough ranting. AB is at the healm, Kraken appears to be firing on as many cylinders as possible and touch wood, all going to plan we should be in a very good position at the end of next year. So my 1 year sure fire bet has turned out to be a 7 year long term investment. This was not the plan obviously.
Hi Squif,
Yes, we had about same journey and learned a lot on the way.
I also didn’t realise how bad things was back in 2016.
But I see AB’s work different and very happy he is in same boat with his 10%.
After signing papers for Kraken and oil went down for several years there not much he could done better.
The two RI was kept at minimum amount, maybe another CEO with less holding would raised more money and hit for us would been harder.
He started early drive down cost per barrel and investment for Kraken.
At first RI, AB convinced others he match investments 1-1 and I think got good deals.
As you point out Magnus was as great deal.
A CEO change during these years would only have slowed things down and you would get someone without any strong holding.
Only small thing AB and Enq could have done bit better was to put more hedges last autumn.
About shares I learned over 30 years, you often get surprised how low it can go.
And when it turns around you get surprised how fast and high it can go.
Let’s just hope now we get some tail wind from oil prices over next 2-3 years and this could come out really exciting
Definitely pelle. Looking forward to the hockey stick trajectory that i agree can occur with enquest