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The SP remains stuck around £11. Good news for those buying as a sharp SP drop looks unlikely. A good dividend allows holders to play the waiting game.
The question for me is who is moving these shares between the markets, how many are on each market and the trend i.e. are we moving more towards NY.
I assume this is the market makers moving the shares as I cannot buy or sell shares for DEC in NY with any of my brokers.
I have tried to find out how this works for duel listing but can find any information with Google.
Shares move on the click of a mouse these days - both ways
I'm sure the volume in the US is available but might be more readily so, next month when we join the Russell
TerryM1
The shares are simply traded on the exhanges they do not hold the stock/shares. as shares is share and held by individuals or II.
I guess the question are there more buyers on one exchange or not and suggests a bias to a region as Europeans would probably but on LSE and Americans/Canadians on NYSE, but that not always the case as anyone can buy from either, some may play the forex game and buty on NYSE but like in UK and also no stamp duty.
As all these shares are bought on the LSE is this a slow but steady move from LSE to NY or are shares coming back from NY to LSE?
Does anyone know how the find out the % of shares on LSE and NY now and the share movements between the exchanges?
Not really as hoping for more price appreciation and so holding for longer there maybe a point where that changes or continue to hold for long as feel there value or something else I want to buy
'...however I can sell of chunks of my IAG investment using capital gains allowance that we get each tax year in UK making not eligible for tax. So can do this is tax efficient way...'
Surely, if tax efficient share sales are part of your strategy, you'd have been much better off selling some last tax year when the CGT allowance was double what it is this year ?
Partial correct, I live in UK and dividends are taxed as part of income after £500 year and I have no control soon as they dividends are issued to me they are issued, however I can sell of chunks of my IAG investment using capital gains allowance that we get each tax year in UK making not eligible for tax. So can do this is tax efficient way.
'...my time horizon is long it not just about dividends it about total returns plus IAG is in a taxable account, IAG will in future will issue dividends again but I probably sell before then...'
But surely they'll still be in a 'taxable account' (and that would apply to dividends or Cap Gains) when you do decide to sell ? I don't see the relevance of it being a 'taxable account' when deciding whether to hold or sell ?
Yes I expected more sp appreciation and to fair my time horizon is long it not just about dividends it about total returns plus IAG is in a taxable account, IAG will in future will issue dividends again but I probably sell before then..
So, tazed having had opportunities to sell IAG at a couple of times times over the past 4 years and switching into something that would have paid a decent dividend given you'd doubled your original investment and had all that capital to re-invest, you're sticking with IAG ? With no dividend ? So, you're hoping for pre-covid share growth to repeat itself ?
IAG debt is reducing significantly while replacing older aircraft with new ones but unfortunately there always seems to be threats of industrial action by somebody and if not directly with IAG it is the airport staff, except during lock down.
Tazed, IAG high debt and forecast slower interest rate cutting, and higher risks of airline industrial action (Aer Lingus pilots) holding them back.
Tazed
Well done for IAG, I unfortunately got this before Covid, did OK until the Lock down crash. However I had faith in the company and it's market so took up all my rights so well down but a lot better than it would have been if I cut and run, hopefully some dividends in the next year but debt reduction is impressive along with new aircraft. In the depths of the lock down I bought a Glencore and Shell, my lowest GLEN purchase was £1.70 and Shell at £10.74 but all these gains more than wiped out by DEC.
The DEC model looks good to me but what do I know, I would like to see some recovery in the SP and cash returned in dividends before Rusty buys more wells as this strategy is clearly not working after the last 2 purchases, it means DEC is now a larger company with more debt and lower dividends, at present the market does not like this. We need some good results, debt reduced and hopefully (not holding my breath) an increase in the dividends.
"Tazed
Sort of agree with you assessment on time scales but what is DEC recovering from, I guess the low SP, HH, high interest rates and trashing of the dividends but the profits have help up due to hedging. HH retuning to normal an had little effect on DEC due to hedging and interest rate will be lower in near future. The 2 parts which are specific to DEC are the new fixed high cost debt for 9 years (hedges only up to 3 years) as interest rates likely to fall and the dividend which was said to be safe trashed, otherwise we are in the same position as most other companies except the SP is in the gutter. These look like self inflicted wounds from which we need to recover."
Yes all very valid points we never be favoured over some other stocks out there but firm believer that value eventually pushes through and expect dividend to return higher as growth, does but there risk of lost sideways.
I see that with IAG I payed average of 97.48p yes that not a typo!
I now have return of 74.4% as not stands at 170p
Despite good returns since covid is now stuck in holding pattern pardon the pun.
Yes the financials scream buy me, PE
"tazed, you don't see any advantage in selling for your 35% or so profit, and re-investing elsewhere ? In your timeframe, that 5 years could give a decent dividend return elsewhere, here you'd just be sitting on an unrealised profit and the risk that this share goes nowhere. Which leads me to my next question - where do you see the catalyst for the rise you're hoping for here coming from ?"
I set a price in mind as I believe there to be more upside my target of £14-15 per share, so know it will take approx three years to get there. So I would be leaving money on the table if I sold now, so believe it to be £20+
The best investors say you should not even invest in something if know you going to sell but hay ho!
In my opinion what the II seem to have realised and hence there heavy investment over last two quarters is that DEC is pivoting its strategy away from the focus of being pure income play and being bit more of growth and income play, that has come at massive cost to RIs and share price. They also know dividends do not play well in the US due to the taxations and other elements, so one way is to use dividends to pivot into growth and buy back shares, I actually prefer when some money is being used to grow revenues like buy more wells or grow the NextLVL part of the business.
I also like the fact that 6% inside ownership means they have skin in the game when it comes to the business and SP. This may not seem that way right now though, but some of them have lost just as much as RI with the recent drop.
We need to understand non ESG stocks are normally unloved and therefore typically undervalued, and also in high interest wnvironment ppl will pick the darling stocks as like to call them!
The way I look at this they have more revenue then market cap, despite the debt which they are also reducing, so at some point the market going to say hang on, solid revenue from cyclical commodiate that hedged, lower debt, share buybacks, comfortable dividend ratio, good ROIC.
We have the inbound inclusion in the russell index that will force a buying of shares and also any funds that then link them self to the index.
Typically fundamentals normally flow into stock price eventually, but the bargins are when there is disconnect. This wil not be one of those quick bounce backs.
While this still paying decent dividend of around 7% for me happy that this good enough and stable enough right now for me to hold out.
The analysts view:
The range of stock forecasts for DEC.L is 1,025.15 - 3,150 GBP. Based on the ratings of 13 analysts, the consensus recommendation for DEC.L is Buy.
Valuation model:
DCF (Growth Exit 5Y) (8,559.21) -874.6% (FAIL)
Peter Lynch Fair Value 6,221.18 463% (PASS)
P/E Multiples 13,881.02 1156.2% (PASS)
EV/EBITDA Multiples 849.34 -23.1% (FAIL)
Earnings Power Value 4,175.11 277.8% (PASS)
There business model make traditional valuations more difficult so focusing also on FCF.
It is true that the price paid at any one date for the BBs is really irrelevant but this occurs every day, a few % here a few % there will add up to a decent sum as repeated every day and DEC pay PH a lot for this service. A simple BOT could do a better job.
HH is a little below 3 now, when this was the case last year DEC SP was a lot higher as well as dividends and as DEC is hedged spot price has little to do with DEC performance as it the futures price which have been a lot higher than spot.
The reason DEC still has some very large liabilities is Rusty can't resist buying more wells adding to the debt.
I think a lot of us are stuck for a time/long time or take huge loses, best I can hope for is the odd trade to try to reduce my average but will not be committing more cash in the medium/long term and will keep the trades small to limit possibility of further loses.
IMO the company is sound and capable of generating a good income but the markets have lost faith in Rusty and his lies.
The price paid at any one date for the BBs is really irrelevant as over the long term it will even out.
I suspect the main reason the BBs have increased is before DEC didn't have much free cash and now after the new ARB and increased borrowing facility they do have more free cash and thus bigger buy backs when needed (price becoming depressed)
Scale and time of recover is very hard to tell but will likely be linked to price of gas and interest rates, an educated guess give cyclical pattern of gas and expected interest rate changes points at 6-12 months.
The reason for shorts is that DEC still has some very large liabilities and it's not clear how it will if ever be resolved (all those Wells need to be plugged) and given the drop in share price, when there is blood in the water the sharks come looking.
In kind of feel stuck now, as I have a decent amount already invested and am aware this can go up as well as down. I suspect it will recover and then some to give me a healthy profit but I am also aware some new law/legislation ect could mean I have a substantial loss also.
Day to day running of the company appears to be in good order with sufficient funds to cover cost plus some extra for BB and new purchases.
No US cavalry to help out today, lets see where the SP goes but expect a small boost due to BBs perhaps mid/late afternoon.
Should have said "HH retuning to normal and had little effect" and "profits have held up"
Tazed
Sort of agree with you assessment on time scales but what is DEC recovering from, I guess the low SP, HH, high interest rates and trashing of the dividends but the profits have help up due to hedging. HH retuning to normal an had little effect on DEC due to hedging and interest rate will be lower in near future. The 2 parts which are specific to DEC are the new fixed high cost debt for 9 years (hedges only up to 3 years) as interest rates likely to fall and the dividend which was said to be safe trashed, otherwise we are in the same position as most other companies except the SP is in the gutter. These look like self inflicted wounds from which we need to recover.
'... I personal see this as a three year plan with possibly a 4-5 year time horizon of recovery. Not the best for holders that were at the highs and imagine even those like me who came in at lows it long time horizon....'
tazed, you don't see any advantage in selling for your 35% or so profit, and re-investing elsewhere ? In your timeframe, that 5 years could give a decent dividend return elsewhere, here you'd just be sitting on an unrealised profit and the risk that this share goes nowhere. Which leads me to my next question - where do you see the catalyst for the rise you're hoping for here coming from ?
Feel this will be a slow burn recovery, as they are basically pivoting the business model and I personal see this as a three year plan with possibly a 4-5 year time horizon of recovery. Not the best for holders that were at the highs and imagine even those like me who came in at lows it long time horizon.
Terry: This sudden transformation regarding the BB is, IMO, likely due to the SP failing to do what Rusty expected after he had shafted us all and then listed on the NYSE. I believe he thought he had pulled off a master stroke - but then reality came knocking. All these shorts aren't going to want to lose face now they have been allowed to dig themselves in this deep. Now had good ole Rusty and the car crash crew done then what they are starting to do now with BBs (as you, I and others urged) - could have been a different story.
13,750 shares was just yesterdays BBs, most days it is 3750, some days none if SP has risen and some days like yesterday more if SP has been falling.
Yesterday price was £11.00, one buy at 15:24, not so good as low was a little below £10.74 and high a bit above £11.08. Can't understand why wait for the price to rise before buying, also after NY opened which often increases the SP.