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Impressive but for once a lot of info to be impressive with.
Although the AMISP will not kick in until next round others considering CCs position in current awards must be thinking that CC is solid.
You really need to DYOR
Good afternoon tonyj and all,
I agree tonyj. All the questions were answered, either within the presentation itself or via the Q&A session. An excellent presentation, with additional information thrown in, for good measure.
Take care tonyj.
LTI.
Sadly....as usual..... the market doesn't agree Tony.
Several things i liked from todays presentation
Revenue will at least be 10% above market expectations , results end of July.
Confirmation that CCs relationship with Genus is still on, and continuing to work together.
The AMISP development will now open up yet another route into approx. a further 120 million meter opportunity so to increase market share in future.
Only a very small percentage of AMISP awards have so far been made to subcontractors - so the bulk of approx. 120 million meter awards yet still to come, plus good opportunities in UAE / Middle East and Africa.
Cheers Vas
Good afternoon Vas and all,
A good recap Vas, to which I would like to add:-
- DigiSmart - the ongoing projects will be considered on a case by case basis - whether to go down the AMISP route or whether to proceed as normal.
- We are now working with 12 meter manufacturers in India.
- DigiSmart is 100% owned by CyanConnode.
- Ratna moved for family reasons.
- Tax credits will still be claimed for R&D updates of Omnimesh Solutions and any other developments.
- Looking to integrate the Gateways into the meters and off poles.
- CyanConnode may look at a Duel Listing, if they think it is appropriate.
- Values will not neccessarily be put on all order confirmation RNS's, for confidentiality reasons. Very sensible, in my opinion.
To finish off, a very good investor presentation, I feel. With plenty to consider and mull-over.
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
Nothing said today is even remotely new, it could never be. YE report will tell us everything, the Q&A should take place within days of that landing. End of July we will all know exactly what CC knew when fielding the 'selected' questions today. That's when the questions really need to be asked.
In the presentation we were informed that CC Holds the largest RF deployment share in the country, approximately 45%, showcasing our leadership in communication solutions for smart metering.
He also mentioned a 16% figure. Can anyone recall what the 16% figure related too. I have tried to find it but seems to be hiding.
thanks Vas
Hi vascular ...good presentation ...maybe 25% reduced to 16%. But increased numbers based on volume ....I wonder if Digismart invested in any electoral bonds 🤣
Hi Gizmo and All.
Found the 16 %!
So some statistics and copied them from presentation.
(Cyan ) Holds the largest RF deployment share in the country, approximately 45%, showcasing our leadership in communication solutions for smart metering page 9 slides
In the Qs and As section at 57 min and 15 secs this question was asked.
Is the Cyan Win rate still at 45%?
JC answers
In terms of no. of bids 29% ( win rate)
in terms of volume 16%
So am correct in thinking we are winning approx. 30% of all bids we compete for in India , which translates into 16% of the total volume ( or meters) available from these awards. !
Maybe this explains the move into an AMISP which could bring in larger awards and higher revenue / better margins etc ,
Anyone know how these figures would translate if these figures where to remain so through out the rollout?
If we say 300 million meters for tender in total rollout in India. Cyan with an approx. win rate of 30% of bids ...but we do not know the value of each bid, not sure of mix hardware / software etc .- so no help.
However, presently the win rate above translates into 16% volume ( i take this to mean actual smart meters) which would translate into volume bids won at approx. 16% of 300 million = approx. 50 m smart meters over course of rollout if figures remain same.
Does this seem plausible?
I initially thought the 16% sounded low, but if this is anywhere near correct then, looks good, plus with AMISP opportunity's could improve significantly.
Happy to be corrected . GL Vas
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/qa-session-2
16% is probably the installed figure. It'll be 29% when all CC units have been fitted.
Good morning all,
John Cronin did mention during the InvestorMeet Presentation, that DigiSmart would be funded by/through Infrastructure Funds that are there for the long-term. So the length of the smart meter projects, does not seem a problem for these funds, as long as everyone makes money.
Separate SPV's will be used for individual projects, which have different start dates and different finish dates. John also mentioned that there may be a 6/9 month delay before share-holders see DigiSmart actually making headway. There still seems like a lot of work to do, before that happens.
Good Luck all.
LTI.
6 to 9 months is no time at all. Us shareholders can expect at least one SPV to be set up and ready to go within the current accounting year to 31/03/2025. Looking forward to that.
My understanding is the SPV will likely only be incorporated once cyan has secured an award in India. Once we identify a new SPV for India then we can safely assume cyan have been awarded a contract under the AMISP umbrella.
I seem to remember ( as the link below supports) that last year we where finding SPVs for several Genus awards , and others - long before the actual awards where made published and named.
https://www.tndindia.com/genus-power-incorporates-spvs-for-amisp-projects/
ITT and LT, Can i ask you both and others what your reading is of the answer regarding the present day win rates....
Answer .In terms of no. of bids 29% ( win rate)
in terms of volume 16%
If i am correct, !! To me it looks as if we are winning approx. 30% of all bids we enter presently. However, the volume of meters in each of these winning bids is quite small ( as only covering 16% of the 100% of units available in total) as opposed to some of the bids we are not winning ( remaining 84%).
This might be due to the framework agreement provides only relatively small tranches from the main award over time, as each tranche is only counted as an award once given to Cyan form the total number in the agreement, or maybe just as the tenders have fallen so far and will even out over time , and may explain why they have gone down the AMISP route for the next round of smart meters -so to get larger slices of and higher revenues from the pie on offer.
What do you and others think ? GL Vas
I think in the meantime CC will go for Cellular status. Presumably SPVs will mainly be funded by banks but what if meter manufacturers also join the funding groups, after all they are long term and could have self interest, if allowed. A small company like CC has got to be in there for a reason. May be GoI was pleased with INDORE and wants to set an installation standard, quick, clean, efficient. I think Utilities want
reliability and something that makes money from the word 'GO'.
I would like to see a video session dedicated to INDORE, no q&a, site installations, comments on performance, information on Feeders and districts. We got praise from GoI so make use of it. DYOR.
I can't see how Cyan could ever be awarded a contract without clear evidence that the project that they have bid for is fully funded.
Infrastructure funds (not banks) would need to provide an assurance that their funds will be backing the bid in the first place.
My guess is that Cyan have realised that they can't make a net profit as a subbie.
The problem with that is, who is going to believe them (infrastructure fund-wise) when they say that they can manage their business as a main contractor better? I'm not sure.
Hi ITT.
As a minimum any procurement team a customer would as a minimum check...
profitability, liquidity, debt levels, and cash flow. That's before any due diligence around capability etc.
Been there ,done that.
On that basis they will need financial backing,partnership or fundraise in my opinion.
Maybe RECPDCL or similar may partner with Cyan to provide a Direct Debit Facility (DDF).
Its been done before.
Maybe https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/press-releases/recpdcl-inks-implementation-contracts-and-ddf-agreements-for-gujarat-with-amisps/
Hi jakeandelwood
What I don't like is this new SPV business model being spun as if its as simple as shelling peas; that it's just a question of time.
IMO, it will be a lot tougher than that for Cyan to persuade the 'money' to back them.
Time will tell (within 6-9 months we should know more).
I agree ITT.
For anyone not familiar with this model this a quite a good article.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spv.asp
Hi jakeandelwood
Thanks for that.
It all makes for a decent distraction, which can't be questioned for 6-9 months.
A red herring?
Nothing would surprise me ITT. The price keeps drifting and I'm not sure it's all due to lack of news. I've set my price to exit based upon my risk profile with this lot so let's wait and see what develops.
Hi inthetin hope you good .....trusted and proven...over untried ......SPV are used to create a pool of money ..capital ...without the risk to cyan and shareholders ........chalk and cheese ...
Hi gizmo555
All good thanks. I hope that you are too.
I get the model. Just not convinced that Cyan will be able to persuade the 'money' to back them.