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Ummmm.... knocknock, coeurdelion.
Does the lithium price mean anything to you at all... 👀
CEOL is months away.
ASX listing hasnt happened yet.
Oh and the lithium price crashed to death over the last 12 months - did you miss that?
For starters.
If true that the CEOL is a shoo-in, you'd struggle to understand why the share price is where it is. The combination of the ASX listing and CEOL approvals were always, in my view, the contingencies that would open the SP to levels beyond 30p
This is why the CEOL application will be stamped through with no issues, and ultimately granted (amongst other reasons)
'...CleanTech said around 70% of the operational workforce, according to the Lanshen plant design, would be employed at the carbonation plant in Copiapó, offering significant benefits in local hiring, including improved diversity outcomes and economic contributions to the local community...'
Agree, generally. Its all fairly academic since after ceol, pfs and confirmation of final lithium grade CTL will be trading back in the 20s or 30s.
Hard to predict how ASX will affect things. Most dual listings dont help much but with ctl that might be a different story.
Anyway, its holding support so thats a good sign.
Dare I say it... the difference between 14p and 13p is negligible. If holds support this week I may take an initial tranche.
Let us not forget that Regal et al and the brokers themselves and their friends and family (according to one investor presentation) all have significantly higher averages.
When this moves it will move.
Just a matter of how much capital is raised and when that will determine the ultimate floor here
Time will tell, this is not a huge difference, I am larger number in two to three months, you are relatively smaller and almost immediate. The terms of the CLN push me to 3 months and practicality means 10-20mm.
RNS this morning was constructive. I had been wondering where the offshoots from the PFS work Gordon mentioned some time back had gotten to. They are positioning the market for the move from an exploration to a development company. They are using their lead position as a DLE developer to position the company as a downstream service company for the sector. This is a wise application of their first-mover advantage. It may (or may not) bring fruit from other downstream processing for 3rd parties but clearly saves them from having to re-invent the wheel for themselves. An expected decision but nice to see it settled upon.
Munnie sounds spot-on (once again, and have much appreciated all MT's recent posts!). There will be an interim raise of at least 5m AUS dollars, says it quite clearly again elsewhere in the RNS :
"In assessing the reasonableness of the terms of the Loan Notes, the Directors considered several prevailing factors including the Company's cash position in general, the need to replace proceeds from the CLNs which had not been paid (as referred to above) the pressing need to manage Company's near-term working capital requirements with suitably priced alternative funding and also to find supportive Loan Note holders who are supportive of the Company's wider objectives". Elsewhere, under the terms of the loan, states that : "following the completion of a capital raise of at least A$5,000,000"...
I suspect that they won't be looking to raise much above the quoted minimum ( which is £2.6m, so say £3m), and also that the ASX listing still remains a short distance away time-wise, maybe a fortnight or so. Interestingly they may be waiting for the now imminent CEOL response, which I guess could before the end of this week or else Monday/Tuesday afternoon, given that I think the govt said that the response would be something like "by July 9th" as the apparent deadline. Given CTLs close relationship with the local communities and the government, to me everything points to the CEOL response towards CTL as being very positive, which would remove another lingering risk factor, hopefully bumping the sp up a bit prior to the raise. So I'm not sure that the current sp will drop that much before the ASX listing, depends on what happens in these next 3 trading sessions, and it's a question for me as to how long I sit on the fence watching before topping up at these low prices... Besides the quotes above , all the rest of my blah blah is just guesswork and personal assumptions. GLA
'This loan is intended to be a short-term bridging facility to be repaid from the proceeds of the next capital raise, which as previously announced, the Company intends to conduct in connection with its dual-listing on the ASX. '
What is there to not understand. Its crystal clear. The ASX listing will happen soon and with it a significant capital raise. From which this short term loan will be repaid.
That makes no sense whatsoever though to be fair we will know in two weeks if you are correct or not, so am happy to admit that they may do as you suggest however given that they have just taken in in excess of 2mm gbp it does not make any sense to then go to the market to ask for them to raise it to pay it back. You'd just ask for it and avoid the CLN. My take is relatively simple and given the move today from them they are clearly looking to raise sufficient capital to take them through to the big lift which is likely end q1 2025 / q2. My expectation from original minimum raise to get listed is now considerably higher - they need to raise at least 5mm AUD as they have stated in the RNS. I think it will be considerably in excess of that if in the interim period between now and (likely) sep/october they have done all the developments on the ground that they are expecting and consequently get the re-rate this project is, to my mind, deserving. Then (and only then) do I think they will go to the market - my guess is somewhere between 10 & 20 million AUD raise to get the next programme of works underway and through to the full project finance they have been pointing to and at which point all these small working capital raises are then put to bed.
In fact its even more stark than that as this 2.1m bridging loan is to be repaid from the upcoming ASX capital raise. So expect the next raise to be substantial and a lot more than £2m. They are literally telling the market what they are going to do. Why on earth is anyone buying this 😅
The writing is certainly on the wall shorter term.
RD as part of their ASX listing they have to demonstrate they can raise capital, we were even told roughly how much. They have to do this in order to list. Thems the rules. That raise will be circa £350k. My supposition is they would bolster the books with an additional raise. They have just done this. Next will be the ASX capital requirement.
Within next few weeks.
I think that is largely missing the point. They are telling you that they are not going to raise capital from the market (either AIM or ASX) at this price - this is a stop-gap financing (largely provided for by their largest shareholder which speaks volumes). The stop-gap is to relieve short term pressure. They have a slew of releases coming up over July and August which should be very positive for the price. They will then likely tap the ASX at a price that they consider to be more reflective of their value - ie: not here.
As expected ctl raise capital over and above the asx planned capital amount.
They have told us it is coming numerous times so I would expect share price weakness over next couple of weeks.
Each to their own if they feel they wish to buy now or after the raise. I suspect this will continue to trickle down to the 13s on the pressure of discount expectation.
Rns suggests that near enough term value will return, however. Suspect it will. Just a case of how low it goes before the rerate.
Long term decent gains likely.
Target 13p initially.
14p support broken.
12.8p hard next level now seems very likely to be tested
My opinion only (right so far on this ticker).
Thanks to @Ayecuramba and @MunnieTorx for your feedback. 👍 GLA
Bid 14p as exepcted.
No comment from Crocqman who said I was talking BS and had no idea.
Anyhow. Has to hold here or we all know what is next.
Agree with Ayecuramba. CTL shouldn't be affected by the Li price, but the whole sector is dragged down by it regardless. CTL *should* overcome this net negative effect with a listing on ASX and some position taking by our ozzie pals. However... the risk here is currently threefold
1. Placing (even if small) needs to happen as part of asx - at what discount, and will ctl raise more besides to bolster accounts against a longer term downturn in lithium price/volatility
2. With that in mind Li Price will continue to weigh down sector for some time it seems
3. Very possible that in fact despite asx there is an awareness of a drag effect and the asx dilution could be compounded by a lack of buying currently since it is unclear where the dust will settle, or when.
Other risk - operational, ceol, more surprises from the bod. Whats happened to the remainder of the prior ceos stock? Will they get offloaded if currently unaccounted for.
14p is a technical floor but this is easily breached in AIM when unfavourable news drops. And it often does.
If all goes smoothly then ctl gets a bounce on asx and finds a stable new level and trickles up from there.
Its got excellent long term prospects, but short term is decidedly dicey within 10 - 30% of the current SP. Could see 12p or even 10p.
Thats AIM for you.
My opinion.
Agree with Ayecuramba. CTL shouldn't be affected by the Li
I think the issue is one of perception more than reality, the present lithium price is irrelevant for this company and it has almost zero production at these prices. The market believe the lithium price in 1-2 years will be higher (above $20k) so this is when it becomes relevant, however the market looks at the current price and believes there is less opportunity for CTL. In reality CTLs cost of production is under $5k, so they are still in significant profit vs other manufactures whose cost of production is $10K+
Also as you say the price is agreed between the miner and the offtaker directly and due to the nature of the lithium from CTL (greener and trade issue free) it's Lithium agreed price will be higher...
I'm puzzled/intrigued by talk of the current lithium price because my understanding is that in many cases the price is agreed between the miner and offtaker upfront and is determined by the quality of the supplied product so all this talk of Mcap being dependent on the current lithium price is irrelevant. Just thinking out loud but alternative views welcome. DYOR
Not really luck needed, just time. The charts tell the story. The downward pressure is pretty heavy.
You do agree though that a placing is coming, even if only 3m shares or so? What is to say ctl dont use this opportunity to raise a lot more given the Li price weakness? Especially if there is a risk it goes significantly lower. Better to raise capital at 15p with 10-20% discount than at 10p.
Anyway bid 14p wont be long. And then the floor has to hold or... well you know where next.
... and yet not, better luck tomorrow Torx :-)
SP dropping in line with expectation currently
14.0p bid by close? Seems very likely
Thank you. Very much appreciated .
Hello Foot
Medium term... lets call it 6 months?
Next 10 sessions the prospectus is finalised, but before that this dips further but there is a good support wedge around 14p. Needs to bounce off or likely lands somewhere around 12p. Mainly due to weakness around lithium and there has to be a raise for ASX. I personally think it breaks down through 14p and goes to 13p quite fast over next five sessions. Only a Small amount of funds needed as part of new listing but the rns will shake a few out expecting an exagerrated response. Dual listings dont make much difference to share prices generally, however with lithium it makes a lot of sense to list ASX - most of the Aus insties will want some exposure, but cannot currently. I suspect that will be the start of finding a new level. Nothing earth shattering there. I would expect it to get to 18-20p by mid-end July, and be happy with that soon after we list in Oz, and if CEOL is pushed through mid July to phase 2 then regardless of lithium price we will stay around 20p as one major risk is elminated and ceol award is more of a formality. After/during that there will be results of battery grade and shipment for testing on larger scale. Mainly sp static until CEOL awarded and PFS complete. CTL will only really take off once some exclusive partnerships and approaches are detailed to market - namely who the joint submission Ceol partner is, IRA funding via (?), european finance/debt package. The money for DLE is there. By end of 2H 24 I would look for 30-35p. That would be a good result. By end of 2025 looking for 50-60p with a lot of debt and a significant partner on board.
By mid 2026 lithium price likely recovered and CTL >90p
FD has a huge incentive to promote ctl. If you listened to all the webinars you will note Daniel Fox Davies is deep in ctl for quite a serious amount of mula anywhere around 30p+ (although may have averaged down recently, unsure of course). Sounds like most institutional support also have averages around or significantly above this. If nothing else, that is the level that CTL is going to be nudged towards come hell or high water over next 6-12 months, barring some terrible news.
Might be wrong.
ASX listing could come sooner.
All manner of things.
Never saw CTL holding its gains and rather getting cut in half. So far I have been right. To call 12p bottom is educated guesswork, but its very possible and in quick order to boot.
My opinion only.