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In the interview, the timescales were:
FID Process - 6 to 9 months
Construction - 12 months
Production - Q1 2026
FID will be very soon I imagine. Then planning, contracts signed with construction people, 12 months of construction.
Yes it’s the introduction of FID into the process that appears ri be new. I think the JV partner might want to take a closer look at the resource and establish the upside before pulling the trigger on construction?
Perhaps the FID is just a formality. It's very common in construction...RNS tomorrow?
In the interview, GM states that they need to have a certain amount of HMC under licence to be able to push the button on the construction process. He expects to achieve the target within the next 3 months. There is clearly some uncertainty
re timescale and this could be the reason he states the FID process could be 6 - 9 months. Given the benefits to all stakeholders, I am optimistic that securing the licences is a matter of when, not if.
Really interesting aspect - thank you for sharing.
I had wondered if there was a sequencing challenge underway; JV before further allocation of resource from GSMB, or the other way around. I would imagine that as the contributing partner [SR/LB or combo] that you would appreciate the extra licences before you committed your cash contribution!
JV is clearly expected within 60 days from RNS. That's the news I'm waiting for. The FID is the final step to construction but once the JV in place, it's surely a given?
Hmmmm...Strange.
Not one single trade today, not even the usual £1 or 24 shares trades.
Hmmmm...
Why do quiet? Is that RNS coming? Can't be far away, would have thought market would be more awake.
Does Ando predict an RNS tomorrow?
Well the last Greg interview seemed to taper those expectations, he was talking about SR still doing their DD last week, and people are still predicting RNS by the end of that week. I think within May will be good, I don't expect it within the 60 days now.
@parker I never expected within 60days, but it never concerned me as I read the 60 days as solely concerned with exclusivity, not that they HAD to conclude the deal.
Obviously, very happy to be proved wrong though...
I know you had predicted out with this window Paul so you look likely to be spot on. I can only speak for myself here, predicting within didn't mean that if it wasn't concluded i thought it would be over, I just expected it to be concluded before the 60 days. After the last interview, now I don't.
Outline terms agreed with Sheffield to contribute funding to support the Project into production in exchange for up to a 50% interest in the Project subject to, inter alia, due diligence over a 60-day period.
The expectation was that Sheffield wouldn't need more than 60 days. I still expect a deal within the next week or so.
As stated in the 15/3 RNS:
Outline terms agreed with Sheffield to contribute funding to support the Project into production in exchange for up to a 50% interest in the Project subject to, inter alia, due diligence over a 60-day period
· Continued positive engagement with LB Group in parallel with Sheffield - either party may individually conclude a funding transaction with the Company within 60 days.
Should there be a material change to that statement, the nomad would make them RNS the change. I think the statements made in the interview were meant to reassure investors that progress is being made and that there are no known reasons to be concerned et al.
I think even Greg tried to prepare you guys , in the CRUX interview, that is may not be over by May 15th, but I don't think it'd be too long after that - matter of weeks, perhaps a month, IF there is a deal to be done.
Nothing is certain until it's signed, if it was then this share price would be hgiher.
I would expect that the market will be informed if an extension is required. That has to come next week if not before. Aim rules etc...
It's hard to imagine SR taking a 10% stake in the company, and then CMET ending up with no deal. I suspect, therefore, that SR will make it happen, but I think the deal might not end up as expected.
If you were SR though, would you not look to box clever here, especially once LB are out of the picture?
I think it is also worth pointing out that GM advised that "they are in the advanced stages of negotiating the documents". In my view, the outstanding steps are:
- Sheffield complete their due diligence, no show stoppers identified to date, and they are already invested.
- Review the offers
- Complete the JV documentation
- Board review and decision.
QUESTION: since Sheffield hold 10% and have a further option, how much equity would LB be given if they provide the best offer?
50% of the remaining amount, ie circa 40%?
As I understand it, regardless of who wins (if there is a race at all here, which I doubt), they get 50% of the project, with CMET owning the other 50%. Whatever shareholding they have in CMET is separate and in addition to this.
Sheffield might well hold all the aces here and low ball CMET in the long run?
I hope this is a good news signal and not the start of them renegotiating…
The conference has City investors but also the consumers of metal products such as automotive OEMs. It's probably deals relating to production.