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Just not via Centamin (nor Endeavour for that matter)
But at least Endeavour has been honest in their forecasts and communication with their shareholders. Take their Lafigué Project now under construction in Cote d'Ivoire. Today's press release states:
Construction of the Lafigué project on the Fetekro property in Côte d'Ivoire was launched in early Q4-2022. The project will have a 4Mtpa capacity CIL plant, with an annual average production of 203koz at a low AISC of $871/oz over its initial 12.8 year mine life. First gold production is scheduled for Q3-2024. Capital expenditure for the project is approximately $448 million. Average head grade of 1.69g/t Au over LOM
Compare that with Doropo's PEA that was stupidly copied and pasted from the Batie West PEA of 2012
Processing rates are estimated as 4Mtpa for fresh, semi-refractory ore requiring flotation with intensive concentrate treatment and 4.5 Mtpa of blended oxide / transition free milling ore to produce 1.96 Moz over an operating life of 13 years with average gold production of 208 koz/annum for the first 5 years. The initial capital cost, inclusive of working capital and contingency is estimated to be US$ M275 (based on a like project) with AISC of US$ 904/oz average target head grade of 1.30 g/t Au over LOM
That's almost a $ 200 million discrepancy for a near identical project
But of course the Doropo PFS is only delayed because of 'metallurgical fine tuning' (according to Mr Horgan) not because its cost metrics are based on fallacy
Oh, and Endeavour only began exploration drilling on Lafigué in 2018 , so much for it 'taking longer' in West Africa because 'that's just the way it is'...
https://www.endeavourmining.com/media/news/endeavour-achieves-top-end-fy-2022-guidance-announces-h2-2022-dividend-100m
Cowichan I suggest you read the 4th Qtr report in particular the link to Doropo you will understand that it isn't just your throw away line "metallurgical fine tuning" albeit not a bad summary there is considerably more involved.
Why not cut and paste the Doropo PEA from 2012 seems to me there needs to be a starting document that can be dissected and developed to put meat on the bone which is what is going on to arrive at a document that is the PFS.
As for it taking longer in West Africa my estimate was 5 years from when geologists start talking positively to actually breaking ground with the equipment to open up the site readying to go mining. Anything earlier tended to come across problems.
I compared the number of years with colleagues around the world such as Australia, Canada, Indonesia and South Africa and a 5 year gestation period was a pretty good rule of thumb.
Yes Doropo has taken longer but I am happy that the work done since 2021 with the new team will I hope overcome "problems" in the future.
Intrigued about the Met story you refer to Cowichan.
Do you know that Met testing is done on between 200-400 kgms of "representative ore". There is a fair bit to it, and plenty of room for errors, as has been noted by several studies (the industry tends to bury the bad results but sometimes bankruptcy is a bit difficult to bury). Some reading that is fairly reasonable in describing the process
https://www.ausimm.com/globalassets/insights-and-resources/minerals-processing-toolbox/anderson0503.pdf
Key is to have competent person sign off, and this should be personS, plural. It needs competent senior geologist AND metallurgist. One without the other increases probability of poor design, long lead time in commissioning, plant under-performancem high AISC..and project failure. What has impressed me about Horgan is his constant referral to Geology, and its important role (I am not a Geologist, but know a bit) in exploration, resource estimation and metalurgy. You do not hear this 3 bagger very often.
In McCarthy (2003) in a study of where things went wrong in feasibility studies showed that 27% of the issues arose in the metallurgical testwork, scale up or process plant equipment design. Of these issues the key areas where things went wrong included:
>Metallurgical domains within the orebody not understood
>Testing done on unrepresentative composites
>Failure to identify process contaminants
>Inability to handle ore types as per mining schedule
>Process water chemistry differs with lab
Plenty of very poor form by the industry! I am quite happy to build on solid foundations and what I hear and read is looking solid, even if it does take a little longer than armchair critcs and analysts think. Both will be the first to criticise when things go wrong, as they should but lets assume they are doing a good job, being fastidious. Investing in a $x00m plant and equipment is not to be rushed into.
A report from global consulting group McKinsey, "Optimizing mining feasibility studies: The $100 billion opportunity", has found that more than four out of five (80% !) mining projects came in OVER budget with over half recording an average budget overrun of 49% (!!!) – and this was just for those projects that reached production phase.
“Scope of work must be “is it feasible?” and not “make it feasible”.
There are plenty of clowns out there, wearing suits talking with arms waving..no feet on the ground so to speak. Happy in CEY
the Gnome