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Just an opinion, but I think Centamin trashing its credibility in recent years and blowing its piggy-bank reserves has a lot to do with market-sentiment here.
This is not in reaction to your comment Rebess, just my opinion on the matter in general.
No matter what way Centamin tried to dress it up the company missed their Q3 guidance, and this is being reflected in the share price.
I think unless there’s something positive in Mondays conference call or in the time thereafter, I think the market won’t credit the pps until April when the Q1 2024 numbers are released which according to recent guidance should be circa 125k ounces.
I think the current price is an unfair disgrace, but I guess we are where we are.
Sadly April is the first definite marker where the price should rise failing anything prior.
On 3 year graphs Endeavour mining , Shanta Gold and Centamin have outperformed Fresnillo, AAZ, HoC, Sol Gold, Hummingbird and GGP by a reasonable margin. On a 3 month graph HoC and Shanta Gold have outperformed other UK listed precious miners with Centamin and Endeavour holding joint third place.
The problem is not so much with Centamin as it is to do with all UK precious metal listed stocks. None are higher than their listing 12 months ago.
Centamin has a lot of intermediate positives for 2024. It is likely in a bottoming process. The most it may go on for is around a month. The next rally for Centamin could well deliver a 25-30p increase on the current price.
That’s what I’ve been saying for months and yet some persist in simply seeing issue as a cey one
Agreed Razor's & Rebess,
They needed to surprise over the last quarter, had they done so then the share price may well have risen by a respectable amount now because people would have not wanted to miss out.
Unfortunately It seems that Centamin has morphed back into its old guise of treating share holders like mushrooms and glossing over the true facts, but despite a slick presentation with the pet corporate analysts onside the market hasn't been fooled and is punishing the share price!
Very bad form Centamin, time to start delivering more than promises sometime whenever in the future and deliver some really good results with reduced CAPEX and AISC!
I certainly hope that you are right Tornado!
We need dovish fed Tony, anything other and this will go for a lot longer and will not be “the bottoming process”- costs have to drop.
I hope you all submitted your questions for the 30th October
S & P said today that Egypt's economy could suffer due to the Gaza conflict. Could that be dropping the sp here, and even though the gold is mainly exported, CEY has the Egypt label ?
Jeeze, noooooo- looks fres and so on- look at the markets and so on
Yes Clued ,the market looks at risk.
The risk is a Middle East War.
Even though Egypt is unlikely to be directly involved .
The uncertainty is what drives sentiment, it does not take much risk as we have seen many times.
Trading is sluggish because of the worlds and US debt problems, even commodities are struggling.
It’s the higher for longer… look at the yield, topped 5% today although dropped a little- and we all know this implies across everything - it’s a consequence
For fun try plotting Centamin against Bank of America shares as they have followed the same pattern for 3 months. The share performance is nothing to do with Egypt or Centamin or what gold is doing. It has a lot to do with increasing long term Treasury bond rates. At some point the USA economy breaks and the Biden administration pretence is revealed for what it is. Banks are seeing 85% of the money in saving accounts withdrawn in 3 years or around $5.2 trillion dollars and are now at extreme lows with around $800M left State side unless the FED print money on the side-lines to maintain bank solvencies. The USA has forgotten how to save for anything and generate growth and a recession is rolling down the hill. 67% of the USA consumer economic engine is begin to stall like a plane engine at a great height. On Bloomberg they pretend all the jobs data is real and the collapse underway in the USA housing sector is just temporary as higher wages will save the day. I am amazed they can say it with a straight face especially when they deny all the loan non-payments and delinquencies rising through the roof. Time to check out zero hedge.
Yep like I said, yield, topped 5% earlier
Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-most-obvious-financial-crisis-nobody-sees-coming
Spot on zero hedge with Peter Schiff. A case of holding on and join nearly everybody else State side and take cash out of the banks.
I’ve downloaded this and look forward to measuring this over the next 12months - the reason no one listens is cos the doomsayers keep on and on and on predicting when in reality are very very very rarely correct and anyone who has invested Uber there past 30years has massive outstripped the doomsayers - even thought were correct in 2008
Last sentence should read
“… and anyone who has invested over the past 30years has massive outstripped the doomsayers - even though were correct in 2008”
If I believed this I’d dump all my investments now and cash hold
Tony- if you believe it- I suggest you do just this.
If rates go up again this will only be because of inflation - so your money cash will be worth less also
Crypto anyone ?
Schiff certainly not spot on-
This time last year he said
“ This was not the first time that Schiff has voiced his concerns about the U.S. economy. At the end of last year, he said that inflation was about to get much worse, and the U.S. dollar will face one of its worst years ever. In October last year, he said the dollar will crash and the U.S. is going to default on its debt. He also predicted that the Federal Reserve’s action could lead to market crashes, a massive financial crisis, and a severe recession.”
Schaffer said recession worse than 2008 would happen in Jul 2022 and we’re still waiting
schiffGold…. Hmmm what possible reason could he have for dissing equities lol
Schiff not Schaffer lol
As always- choose who you listen too wisely , make your own decisions then you only have yourself to pat on the back or criticise
Every time markets and geopolitics gets spicey, everyone wants your clicks to make their money-
Bears are always right - in the end.
Re what will it take ?
1) Q4 delivery on guidance with strong production and revenue.
2) A more peaceful world.
3) More doveish central bank rate policies.
4) No global recession.
5) No G7 debt trap doom loop.
Not much to ask is it?
Lol- bears overall across the markets are grumpy- why? Because the bulls have by a country mile.
Sure the bears can be right stock to stock, but overall bears have been battered horrendously over past 40years
Peter Schiff on bitcoin in 2017- he would have made over 700% had he not been a such a bear- but hey Ho lol
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2017/08/17/bitcoin-bear-peter-schiff-doubles-down-even-at-4000-its-still-a-bubble/?outputType=amp
It's amazing isn't it here we are in the 21st Century and billions of dollars are being made trading in something that isn't regulated doesn't materially exist or have any intrinsic value backed by nothing but predictions and trading desk spin in the media.
Why bother mining anything, growing anything or developing and building anything it seems that all that needed is trading in something that you cant hold, taste, smell, regulate with no use other than being a trading token!
People are people Mr T and it was ever thus- most of gold has little use other than what people perceive its value to be, the desire for shiny stuff.
Mona Lisa and all art is subjective and yet generates bonkers money. If everyone decided Banksy was crap- his art would be worthless…
Bitcoin is so different- it’s allows payment instantaneously (I can’t buy something with my gold bracelet in a few seconds…
It avoids bonkers fees by the costly banking and fx markets
Long live crypto, it’s here to stay and grow .
Oh and BTC up 85% YTD… just saying …
Nobody gives a flying fart about the US debt problems because like it or not the dollar is king and they are all still willing to buy yet more trillions of US debt as long as it keeps paying ever rising interest rates in lovely dollars, backed by nothing more than a promise to pay in yet more lovely unbacked dollars !
Now there is a risk of escalated war in Ukraine and the middle easy the US congress and senate is hardly likely to refuse lifting the debt ceiling and who cares a flying fart anyway when the FED printing presses can just carrying on churning out the Greenback and the Comex trading desks can carry on selling paper gold!
Centamin is well and truly buggered just like the worlds monetary and trading systems ,but who gives a tying fart anyway, certainly nor the BOD!
I no longer believe that Centamin is being entirely honest with share holders because if the BOD really cared or even believed in their policies and strategy then they would demonstrate it by each of them buying a meaningful amount of shares, but I doubt they will when the y know that they can carry on kicking the can down the road promising share holders of good times sometimes who knows when whilst being rewarded with buckets loads free shares for basically doing a less than mediocre job!
In the absence of any evidence to the contrary, excluding the usual meaningless spin from pet corporate brokers I fail to see how Centamin is worth investing in .