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Canetoad
I think most of us are sitting on a paper loss, as the share price hasnt been this low for the last few years apart from the Covid blip for a couple of weeks in March 2019
What worries me is if the share price doesnt rise quite soon and the markets in general fall then so wil CEY despite the price of gold
And that’s at 1780 usd gold price!!
You have to remember the stock prices in general have been artificially boosted by QE.
If QE is tapered ,then everyone may be in for a surprise.
Not a pleasant one. IMO.
Don't know how long you have held this share but the long term holders will remember it was at more than this when the POG was lower, stage four was still being built , the CAPEX had yet to be repaid, profit share was way down the road and dividends were a dream for the future!
Then there were a couple of revolutions , explosive and fuel shortages, allegations of corruption and an invalid Sukari license regarding original 160sq km initial area, withdrawal of agreed fuel subsidy putting up operational costs and barely a thought of a solar plan t ant time soon !
So consider now, a mine still producing 430, 000 ozs at near $1800 POG with other concessions close by granted, West African reserves confirmed, yet to be exploited or sold . $300 million in reserve, no hedging , the allegation's made in court face admitted to be groundless by ex politician making them,the Sukarii license enshrined in law , solar power coming on stream soon, new CEO with a credible strategy to safeguard and stabilise future Sukari production at around 500,000 ozs at potentially higher gold prices.
The rest of the market may drop, although common sense rather than market mentality suggests that there is no justification for the present share price let alone ant further drop.
I dare say some some will consult the charts or whatever other predictive methods that use to try and state otherwise but that is there prerogative.
Sukari production is being restored and with it AISC costs will fall, but perhaps more importantly and what will help the future share price is the restoration by Martin Horgan's strategy of market and investor confidence in the running of the company for the future!
We all know the share price doesnt reflect the value of the company,but our reasons dont count.Some loss making companies share price have done very well in recent months due to the Ftse at around all time highs,but we are going down and down each week and even when gold recovers we dont follow it up,so something is amiss
So if like Mrbond suggest that things could get much worse where does that leave us perhaps 70p
What I was inferring was if the Dollar drops or even worse crashes, all stocks will drop because of panic and short covering / margin .
I am not suggesting that will necessarily happen.
At the moment trading volumes are very low ,two weeks time when vacations are over there may be a large upturn.
Last year August was a huge improvement for Gold because of the lockdowns and virus so it was a freakish year.
I agree that the share price doesn’t reflect the value of the company just now as on this years profits should be half what it is, but this year is hopefully a very abnormal year and if AISC falls back as much as Mr Tibbles hopes to anywhere near where it was before, as (if) ounces rise, then at these gold prices we should be worth 50% more, so the value in between seems about right particularly as gold stocks are anticipating falling gold prices and rising mine inflation, in both of which hopefully they will be wrong. We have been on a downward staircase for a year now, pausing and then lurching further down and there is nothing yet to suggest this is over either in gold price, costs or ounces but hopefully we will turn sometime not too distant! Have a get weekend
The Jackson Hole meeting is taking place next week - 26th - 28th. Could this be the spur for precious metals to resume their climb? When Bernanke started 'tapering' in Dec 2015, that was the low for gold and rose until Aug last year - completely the opposite to what everyone thought! Same again, please.
Red sparrow
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-sworn-fed-chair-succeeding-bernanke-202043573--finance.html
Yellen replaced Bernanke and it was Yellen who tried to raise rates in Dec 2015 when rates went up. Bernanke tapering brought gold lower in 2013. Nobody has a clue how things are going to play out but a lot of analysts are calling it a non-event. Centamin divi is the following week and the grown ups come back to the trading desks from holidays and daily volumes increase again. A case of collecting the divi and trying to work out what happens in 2022. Some of us were expecting a 5-10% growth improvement for 2022 and a good recovery on the AISC outlay for CEY. This may buffer any downside on gold if it happens from here.
Thanks, Tony. Yes, Yellen raised interest rates back then and gold went up. I knew something interesting happened in Dec 2015.
What interests me at the moment is that the Commercials are very short on the dollar.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-august-20-2021
They are also happy to take longs on silver and platinum, but are very short gold.
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_sof.htm
The last time they were so short on the dollar was when gold bottomed at $1670s earlier this year and then the dollar dropped and gold rose to $1920s.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-february-19-2021
We could see a temporary top for the DXY at around 94 - 94.5 before a turn down and rise in metals and commodities. Dollar to 87? Gold to double top $2075?
I'm waiting to buy some very cheap companies IF we get the turn - I could even get some more Centamin but probably wont.
Maybe Jackson Hole will be the trigger. We'll see. I shall be looking in the MSM for a sign - dollar to the moon; gold down the pan. The trouble is, it ain't free markets any more.
All this excitment would have to happen when I'm at my most busy!
Take care.
Yes we all are nursing losses, although I entered at £1.03. The thing that worries me most is that the single mine they have only has a 12 year lifespan ..with no proven prospects on the horizon ..on this basis its surely a speculative share. .A dividend yield of nearly 7% won't compensate for a share that could be valued at zero within 12 years unless the licences yield fruit or in this case Gold ..or have I got something wrong ? Whatever the answer , this is still a speculative share and buy and hold forever is foolhardy. I am looking to make a stealth move , in and hopefully out with a 35% profit maybe and as quickly as possible given its fundamental resources weakness