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The good times appear to be ending as Germany reported its first monthly trade deficit since 1991. Energy imports are the main explanation with Energy markets mostly set prices in dollars, so the weaker euro is raising euro-denominated costs for German manufacturers. Whats happening in the southern countries in Europe is interesting, and mayhem as usual in Italy
The Japanese yen has tumbled this year, breaking through Tokyo’s red line of 125 yen to the dollar and now hovering near 137. After thinking a weaker yen might help the economy, Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda and other officials are trying to talk the yen into stability. They’re having mixed success.
Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are now realizing how complicated the private economy actually is, and how easy it is to wreck it, and proceeding to wreck it, but of course that does not effect the vaue of the USD?
The European Central Bank is even less aggressive in fighting inflation. It stopped net asset purchases only last month and says it won’t start reducing its balance sheet until 2024, reactions take much longer in Europe when they have to go through endless faceless committees, and then they get to Brussels?
The dollar-euro exchange rate is the most important in the world, as the late Nobel economist Robert Mundell observed. When the rate starts to shift, companies must spend ever greater sums hedging against exchange risks, can be deterred from job-creating investments, and risk currency mismatches when they borrow. All of this weighs on financial stability, and on the Main Street economy.
Hard to believe the USD is going to stay rock steady through the mayhem, and that includes the mayhem within its own shores
the gnome
Have a look at European gas price chart below - I knew it was savage but didn’t realise just how savage! You reap what you sow.
https://www.ft.com/content/a0bc7996-ab5d-465b-aab4-90472e088af7
Spoonington,
Nasty stuff. Germany should have stayed with nuclear. In fact nuclear is the most obvious and fastest way to deliver the power needs the worlds population needs. 7.75 billion people and increasing every day, a lot of the greens don't factor in energy equality into their spreadsheets.
V hot global inflationary picture as US consumer price growth runs at a 41-year-high, increasing the pressure on central banks to lift interest rates and heightening the risk of recession.
The central banks of the Philippines and Singapore raised interest rates on Thursday, following supersized moves on Wednesday by Canada, South Korea, and New Zealand.
US President Joe Biden last month blamed fuel price inflation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (its better if he does not talk!)
The delicate balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve is mirrored by the worsening inversion of the US yield curve, a classic barometer of recession.
The US 10-year bond rate was at 2.95 per cent on Thursday, and the two-year bond rate 3.19 per cent. When short-dated yields exceed longer-dated ones, the market is implying that the imminent tightening of financial conditions will erode future growth, requiring a return to monetary easing.
A short dash of inflation or a protracted battle, with plenty of aftershocks? Paul Krugman coming clean (finally)..."But, of course, we don’t know that. In fact, given the wide discrepancies in economic data, economic pundits (including me) have unusual freedom to believe whatever they want to believe." and get paid for whatever they want to write, right or wrong.
Go gold!
the gnome
The Cop 26 cost a huge amount of public money yet it seems to have been little more than expensive "Jolly" for the worlds political elite and pro fossil fuel lobbyist which has achieved very little if anything other than kicking the can down the road for a bit longer!
That said, and in view of the present unprecedented huge increase in energy prices and its detrimental effect on the cost of living I write to bring to your attention the worldwide continued pollution of our planets atmosphere by the unnecessary oil rig flaring of a very precious natural resource "Gas".
Our present government is failing to tackle an obvious ongoing unnecessary pollution of our planet by the wasting (Flaring) of a precious natural resource!
Worldwide 4% of natural gas is flared annually , that is enough to supply the UK & Germany for a year!
The estimated cost of wasted natural gas of $30 billion in the BBC saving the Planet broadcast was prior to the huge increases in wholesale spot prices so the wastage now may well be $50- $ 60 billion or even more!
If the environment damage caused by this gas flaring were not bad enough to bring about some sense of urgency amongst our political leaders to bring in legislation to compel Oil/Energy producers to start saving this valuable natural resource, then surely the present Ukraine crisis and the huge increase in energy prices has now made it imperative to take some immediate action to stop oil rig gas flaring and instead to capture the natural gas?
10 Oct 2021 BBC World Service
There are thought to be over 10,000 gas flares around the world that contribute to global warming by emitting tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane. Flared gas is a by-product of oil extraction and is frequently used as a method of eliminating unwanted gasses in countries such as Albania, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, Russia and Nigeria. Yet, year after year deadlines set to stop the practice are missed. The oil industry says better infrastructure is needed to stop flaring and some of the world’s largest producers of oil have committed to ending flaring by 2030. What will it take for that to happen? Presenters Neal Razzell and Kate Lamble are joined by: Bjørn Otto Sverdrup, chair, Oil and Gas Climate Initiative Mark Davis, CEO of Capterio. Sharon Wilson, senior field advocate, Earthworks
The Climate Question - Why can't we stop gas flaring? - BBC Sounds
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3ct2dr4
Gas Flaring Leaves Money on the Table
Every year, 150 billion cubic metres of gas is burned off globally into the atmosphere through gas flaring.
To put it in context, the amount of gas flared is equivalent to the gas consumption of two of Europe’s largest markets – Germany and the United Kingdom.
At a time of low oil and gas prices, National Oil Companies, as the custodians of their countries’ natural resources, can extract value from flared gas and help bolster government revenues.
Why knock Germany Spoonington,
Have look at Australia appalling attitude !
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57925798
https://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-australia-expects-to-continue-to-sell-coal-for-decades-into-the-future-12463871
https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/australian-coal-a-recipe-for-climate-disaster/
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211108-australia-vows-to-sell-coal-for-decades
Why FlareIntel exists
Our goal is to reduce and ultimately eliminate routine gas flaring. In 2021 flaring was responsible for 1.2 billion tonnes of CO2e, the equivalent CO2 emissions from over 260 million cars, equivalent to all cars in the EU.
Greenhouse gas emissions need to be halved by 2030 – this means mitigating 35 billion tonnes of CO2e by the end of the decade?. Ending routine flaring is technologically achievable in that period, but first there must be a credible, transparent and granular?global assessment of flaring – yes, flare by flare.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is a wake-up call to reduce our dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal, and more broadly, to accelerate the energy transition to a net-zero society. We urgently need to find new sources of energy. ...https://flareintel.com/insights
FlareIntel, launched in April 2021, is a digital tool that allows anyone to explore gas flares around the world. It tracks every gas flare globally via satellite by incorporating data provided by the Earth Observation Group at the Colorado School of Mines and other sources.
For the first time, FlareIntel makes it possible to see the scale, impact, and operator of all flares anywhere in the world.
FlareIntel was developed by Capterio, which provides gas flaring solutions for energy companies to capture flared gas, create value, reduce pollution, and improve reputation.
https://capterio.com/gas-capture-opportunity
https://capterio.com/our-solution
https://capterio.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/20210914-Capterio-article-how-we-can-solve-gas-flaring-final.pdf
The Independent
Voices: Russia is about to play its most dangerous cards – and the west is not ready
Sunny Hundal Thu, 14 July 2022, 11:04 am
A few weeks ago, the US bank JP Morgan offered an apocalyptic warning that barely made a ripple outside the financial press. It said that if Russia completely halted oil exports, the shock to the world economy could be so large it would instantly quadruple the price of oil to nearly $400 a barrel. Right now, it’s hovering at around $100 a barrel.
Since the world is still heavily reliant on oil, the shock to the world economy would be far worse than during the 1970s, and plunge us into a deep recession.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/voices-russia-play-most-dangerous-100441130.html
Thanks very much for your email and sharing the email you’ve sent to Parliamentarians about gas flaring.
We provided advice to the UK Government on reducing methane emissions from venting, flaring and leakage in oil and gas production as part of our Sixth Carbon Budget advice on setting the limit to emissions for the mid-2030s.
Please see our Fuel Supply chapter for further information on what we’ve said: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Sector-summary-Fuel-supply.pdf
https://www.theccc.org.uk/
Huh?
Why was I knocking Germany, I only said gas prices in Europe have sky-rocketed & maybe intimated that Europe brought this upon themselves by starting the Ukraine war & then imposing unfair sanctions on Russia (where were the sanctions on the US for its totally unreasonable invasion of Iraq - got to love the rules based system).
Where did I pick on Germany?