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Paul you are right, I sold some Centamin for Hoc probably around when they hit parity - Hoc share price has historically been around 40% more than Centamin, however as you point out Hoc continued down and is now far below cey, the politics has been far worse than expected, the main mine under siege etc. However it was only a small percentage of my cey holding that I then bought back, and I haven’t bought or sold either since last Easter and sorting tax, till my small cey top up yesterday. Yes I have been reinvesting dividends in Tharisa as I continue to think it is a great and undervalued company, but the price stays low as despite its huge profits (pe about 2.5) it reinvests the vast majority in growing a new mine, so it is another jam tomorrow but I have great faith, hope I am right as at an average price about 25% above now. Also the market worries about electric car effect on PGM prices but forgets half the Ths profit is now chromium which continues up, just as they think Hoc is still a silver miner whereas now it is mainly and increasingly gold. Cey remains by far my biggest holding and you are quite right I should have kept the faith and reinvested divis here, but also didn’t want even more eggs in one basket. And Tibbs I have a mortgage I wouldn’t have needed if I sold Centamin so you could say overall I am leveraged but it is only about 15% of my total wealth. I couldn’t resist the mortgage as it was 5 years at 0.9%. On £100k the divi should be £30k, and inflation should lift the share price even if it falls in real terms. Maybe foolhardy.
You are RICH!
im scratching around, making jam on the fire and making my own wine!
Im hoping that Centamin does start to look up soon. I think I've been here ten years and only about level , but had the divis. If Centamin did manage a big leap (say --up to £1.40 or £1.50) , I'd consider cashing some in and getting some more post office IDS shares as they should eventually start moving again and also paying a divi.
Hi Paul,
I am very hesitant to post anything now that may be prove not to work out, as predicted or hoped for, or anything that may be misconstrued as investment advice or that might influence members investment strategy or decisions.
However as you understandably after all that has happened in past years may feel somewhat let down or disillusioned I thought you may like to read an opinion on the latest Centamin Q4 report from Kees Dekker mining analyst that has come my way.
You may recall that Kees was the only mining analyst to warn of the way that Sukari was being operated in 2015 & 2018, his concerns were subsequently proven to be justified.
Kees opinion on the latest Q4 report
"The company came out of this year not to battered with only US$17 million negative net cash flow. Having passed he capex peak and with the rising gold price next year should be a lot better. My understanding is that the share price has already reflected that and Centamin outperformed the market last year."
I hope that may help you feel a little more upbeat!
Tibbs
Thanks Mr T. I,d feel a lot happier if we reached the £3 a share that Sotolo spoke of before all the waste hit the fan! I'd even get some gold plated steel toecaps for my gardening boots :D
I have the feeling that with a bit of good news or good luck that we could have a jump----------but looking over the years, £1-30 ish seems a "normal" sort of price for us, without having problems.
However------£1-30 would be ok with me with decent dividiends.
Hi Paul,
Yes indeed so would I like to reach £3 and indeed we could well have done were it not ior having to pay for Pardey & Youssef's pile of crap too be cleared up!
That said and no one seems really bothered on here but $367m in what can be described as illegally or unjustifiably withdrawn diesel subsidy would have also gone some considerable way to paying to put things right at Sukari, but no Centamin decided it was better to walk away and not risk losing the appeal?
Unbelievable, the fuel subsidy was part of the original concession agreement and that is enshrined in Egyptian law.
If it is OK for EMRA to change the terms of the concession then why shouldn't Centamin amend the profit share to 60% Centamin 40% EMRA, see how that would go down!
When the fuel subsidy was withdrawn Centamin layers stated that Centamin had a very strong case foe the appeal , however if the case was found in Centamins favour then the Egyptian government would have to pay back the withdrawn subsidy but that would be impossible in one lump because of the dire state of Egyptian finances, so the only alternative would be stage payment from profit share , that wouldn't be popular to say the least!
So by coincidence now it seems Law 32 is ratified, the court case goes away and Centamin have thrown in the towel on getting back their, our money!
Mr Tibbles, that is just my reading, and I think Kees is as ever right: in 2023 ounces mined are predicted to be back up to 465k, with a mid predicted aisc of $1325 cey would be making around $600 an ounce at current gold price or $300k, or hopefully decently over £100k with Emra and royalty removed. Which would put us back on a pe of 13 our historic norm or less as I have been very conservative. Of course we are very geared to any gold rise or fall, but. With luck gold may rise to take account of t he rising aisc, tho we will never get back to the days before the Emra profit share.
That's way too simplistic Sotolo- the SP never reacts like this- sentiment, and the key drivers that drive CEY sentiment is key for the SP. As is beating the targets set.
Yes Steve its all about Centiment, :-), as the last time when it hit its highest.
But time has past ,its just History .
The future prospects are important ,not re-iterations of what happened in the past.
If people have no confidence in a new CEO, the the solution is simple.
Because if you think you are going to change them ,then you are dellusional.
But some are persistent, but for what, trying to change Centiment ;-), a little like the arrogant King Canute.
But after all this is just a Bulletin Board , so I suppose it is the normal.
wise words 007 - but I share actual company information so that current shareholders can
a) get out
b) gain confidence while remaining invested
I agree we probably cannot make a poor CEO exceptional - but the point of highlighting when the company does or doesn't do as it indicates during the past year - is to educate shareholders on the pitfalls or possibilities going forward
if the 2022 exploration spend wasn't made it's a good indication other spends are open to failure/change - like meeting 2023 production guidance and/or AISC forecasts
if you want to opine on King Canute why not join a historic book club chat group instead ?
Oh now we are public spirited are we .
Even though you say you are no longer invested in CEY, Admirable ,above and beyond the call of duty.
HA Ha.
Steve I wasn’t talking about the share price but profit, of course the share goes all over the place but ultimately if Cey is making hundreds of thousand profit the share price is likely to be higher than if it makes none. And the good thing is at the current gold price profit looks like it would be around 2/3rds up on last year. I think the share price has risen quite a lot (around 60% coincidentally) in anticipation of this. It fell AC outlet of years ago in anticipation of the collapsed profit that transpires, of course there is not a direct link and lots of noise, but I prefer profit to be increasing.
Oh and Cowichan thanks as ever
I am only interested the SP, as I only care about my profit not the company's.
007 - what happened to you in life that you are so bitter ? i pity you more than anything and wish you recover
Re The future prospects are important ,not re-iterations of what happened in the past
Hi Mr Bond,
I totally disagree with you on this, we have had over well over a decade of the management trumpeting future prospects and then after a few spikes up in the share price the level to which it had risen couldn't be sustained because the results had been achieved by intentionally using unsound mining practice at Sukari and making what the management knew to be undeliverable guidance predictions, until the next RNS of the unexpected low grades which they knew about in 2015 but kept hidden necessitated the release of yet another RNS guidance cut, this usually after the BOD had already filled their boots with bonus shares or sold a shed load!
So what's different his time, so far it's much the same we are still waiting!
The big downside to owning Centamin shares today is the outrageously high AISC which seems baked-in for the next 2 years!
It was intimated that the astrochemical AISC the 2020 announcement of the 'Bonanza Zone' would be a way to add some high grade, allegedly these bonanza grades were very close to active mining stopes - so what happened?
That is to say ,why talk about a potential windfall only to have it fizzle out like a damp squib!?
Fantastic aspirations and promises that fade away, rather like a desert mirage! always seem to be the norm with this company!
As yet how can we be certain that that this current waste clearing blitz will not be the last - especially considering the north hill covering the Cleopatra zone was supposed to be further along in its removal by this stage?
If true, then how will that massive load of waste be 'caught up' ?
I recall in the past the management were questioned in regards to the dump truck fleet not being used to capacity (something like 20% spare capacity was noted in quarterly report after quarterly report) and that was the norm for years!
It never occurred to me they were not following the script on purpose - just had overcapacity built into the mining fleet, why?
So I shall keep revisiting the past until I see proof over several quarters that things have really changed!
Whos 007, and why do you once again use suppositions of which you are so fond.
Give yourself a rest, sounds more like you are the bitter one.
There are many people on this BB that do not coment, just sit back and laugh at the entertainment.
As for trying to provoke me to insults ,give up ,you have proved yourself in the past to be the guilty one.
What,another history lesson Mr T.
Look to a better future ,otherwise you know what to do. Or do you?