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For those who do not understand what C1 and C2 Reserves are these are simply Contingent and will eventually be moved over to 1P (PROVEN) and 2P (PROBABLE) Reserves.
This Reserves update is so they can apply for an international sales license for the Airshagyl Deep structure. The Yelemes Deep structures 1C/2C Reserves will be updated soon once the A3 completes so they can again obtain an international oil sales license for the deeps.
The A7 Deep Well is no where near completing as drilling was stopped at 1,250m so not sure how they can assess Reserves with this well?
IMO it's just to get the international trading license through.
Very carp initial C1/ C2 numbers BTW.
BM,
A polite way of saying crap.
These numbers are just to get a BNG international deep trading license(s).
These numbers have been (rushed imo) put through so they can sell the oil at international oil prices as they no doubt expect the deep oil to flow soon replacing their shallow income stream.
These C1/ C2 Reserve numbers are tiny and will increase with next years CPR to include 1P/ 2P Reserves, just imagine if the Airshagyl structure only had circ, 80m Reserve barrels as just stated, if you went by the shallow P1/P2 40m barrels sales Reserves sale that would put the Airshagyl structures 80m barrels of P1/ P2 barrels value at circ. $130m + the smaller Yelemes Deep structures barrels to boot.
We need all 6 BNG deep wells to flow for a proper Reserves estimate, two on each structure would be good.
Didn't use Gaffney Cline this time.
The Appraisal Yelemes Deep structure (BNG) license runs out 4 August which is another reason to do an initial Reserves updates to help get the license renewed no doubt.
Airshagyl Appraisal structure license runs out 4 August and probably YS too.
Once the BNG appraisal license has been renewed I'd expect a tick up on the share price as the market will be relieved too.
''The reserve estimate has been prepared using the former Soviet classification system operated by the Geological Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as required under the Kazakh reserve reporting rules and has been submitted to the Kazakh authorities in connection with the scheduled licence renewal.''
And there you have it, the reason for the Reserves update is to get the license renewed ASAP as thought.
Thanks somm, all very helpful & clear.
Looked through what's coming up next.
As its gone NT and I can't sell any here's a thought for you.
West Shalva - cost them not a lot of money, they flipped it into CASP as soon as they could will receive £5m in shares at 4p, £5m in shares at 4p and rest in cash.
It would have cost hundreds of thousands at most, when the Son in law bought it they were giving them away for peanuts - read it online its all there.
A5 isn't flowing and the boat hasn't sailed, that news could swallow £5m easily.
Call me suspicious but after the 'Consultant' flipped his stock before he got it when is the first tranche of 4p shares that owes him fractions of a penny each about to land.
My theory that West Shalva and its dead camel are to make up for Kuat selling us the C.E. so cheaply does he need 4p to get his cash back or is it 3.3p? is it lower?
Ask Clive at the AGM, also ask him how Benny Iggland was made aware of Caspian Sunrise and why he isnt a member of the concert party?
And if he isn't a member why isn't Al Marri also a member?
Cc you are suspicious
Todays Reserves are estimated from the immediate drainage vicinity for wells A5, A6 & A7.
The Airshagyl structure on the BNG Contract Area is a whopping 58 km2 so what was the distance of the immediate drainage vicinity between these three wells? At a guess I'd say the initial drainage area of the C1/ C2 Reserves is around 5 km2 as we know the wells are only a few kilometers apart, FDP appraisal wells will obviously push the boundary out a lot more later (more Reserves).
I noted they didn't include the A8 Deep Well in the drainage vicinity that flowed 120 bopd from one of three intervals, oil was there so why not include it in the drainage vicinity, though it wasn't commercial oil that flowed oil is there - why they're including the A7 Deep Well that hasn't been drilled yet in the drainage vicinity area?
There's no oil 'yet' from any deep interval(s) at the A7 Deep Well as the drill bit is currently only at 1,250m (5,200m TD) so where's the drainage vicinity stretching to if there's no oil to prove being there, they must be relying on the seismic data only to include the A7 Deep Wells drainage vicinity, but why not use the A8 Deep Well as a boarder/ drainage vicinity, another well close by might hit a better fractured spot?
A question for the AGM perhaps.
Also if the 801 Deep Well has 4 very thick intervals ranging between 6m and 58m thick, which interval has oil - all of them - how far do these interval stretch? Could the smaller Yelemes Deep structure have more oil in its 36 km structure, Carver refers to it as smaller, but could there be more oil in these multiple thick intervals?
Question for the AGM.
How many intervals did the initial A5 Deep Wells 3,800 bopd flow from that was perforated 63m of the 105m net pay zone, and how far does the seismic indicate these intervals go on for?
Anyway the latest Reserves update should be enough to allow them to satisfy the appraisal license renewal requirements until 2050? I think this has been holding the share price back, hopefully it doesn't take as long as Block 8/ A3 Best with thousands of production barrels waiting in the wings.......
Well, the market wasn't overly enamoured with todays' news. Personally, I'm very happy to see any booked reserves for the deeps, that's a step in the right direction. As stated, they have to renew licence as appraisal period over and a production licence would add considerable value, firstly if they flowed oil commercially or secondly, if they decide to bin the deeps at some juncture.
I don't understand how they can include A7 and A8 did flow but not in commercial quantities. Only the immediate drainage vicinity and A7 not completed ? Can they complete the drill pre appraisal licence expires ? A5 will obviously be key as will all Airshagyl wells, if the remedial work delivers commercial oil production.
Same process going on at NY and oil has flowed at both 801/2 so let's hope that 803 is the same BUT no blockages !
What if they don't flow them commercially ? They're going to sell them with very valuable production licence or sell part and retain a carried interest. They have to book reserves as part of the appraisal licence process and it also gives them the opportunity to sell the BNG deeps if they can't get them over the line. There is zippo value booked for the deeps but todays news has changed that positively but PIs aren't buying it .The true value will depend on 803 and the remedial work on all the deeps and I believe there's a considerable sp re-rate coming our way.
Anybody seen a new Broker note released today ?
Somm,
You've hit questions, if you're not there, do your offline voting and send a note to Zclive to state you can't make AGM and will they accept and answer your questions, the answer will be yes OR ask someone who is going to do it f2f.
As stated, worst case scenario, we'll get a chunk of cash for the deeps, magnitude decided by H2 drilling outcomes. They'll then keep B8/WS, CE and rigs business and continue the journey with x hundred million dollars in the bank :)
To add.
The sp is on its arze . Many investors are battle weary but for those who can remember the initial excitement re A5 initially in 2014 and for the subsequent side-track flowing at 3800 bopd for 15 days on open choke. Caspian may never get the deeps to flow as their skills aren’t up to the challenge. A bit like the shallows, they can’t exploit the oil with the new horizontal approach but Absolute will. The same will happen at the deeps and Casper will prove and flip, moving onto the next assets. Maybe they’ve got lucky with B8 and WS is a far easier proposition and within their capability.
Money to be made and loads of it.
Im amazed anyone has been able to keep up interest in this for a decade !
That makes two of us ;)
Four..
You lot might not know how to invest but at least you can count ....... 8-))
Bottled your humour brightens up this Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter day ......... yes, we have just had hail stones
All hail bottled ;- )
How the heck did we go from oil reserves to hail?
Trust you DM.
Looks like I missed the afternoon drinks down the club by the looks of it....