IntelliAM aiming for significant growth with £5 million Aquis IPO. Watch the video here.
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Year of transition??? This is rubbish. Banks are saving face and July news is going to be grim, methinks. Dodgy Nigerian Naira dealing has clearly dried up (BINANCE!) and the last call they referred to revenue in wider the basket of currencies being driven by GBP, EUR and USD? No chance the volatility in those currencies compensates for NGN and suspension of other key African countries that are their emerging markets strength. Buy again only once 80p broken again guess near the IPO anniversary in Jul.
“ CAB Payments
Adjusting estimates
We have made small reductions in our total income estimates for FY24/25 (lowered by 2%/3.1%, respectively) driven by slightly lower volume assumptions.
We expect CAB Payments to have a year of transition in FY24 due to the decline in the Naira and XOF currency corridors offset by growth in new corridors. Our revised total income estimate of £147m (up 7.4% YoY) implies that the Non-Naira business grows by high-teen percentage while Naira revenues reduce by approximately two-thirds YoY. CAB Payments has a new CEO Neeraj Kapur and with the disappointment in the past year having been on the growth of income, we expect him to invest during the year and potentially beyond with a focus on ensuring higher long-term growth. Some of the additional spending will be related to building out the presence in the EU and the US once those licenses are in place (have already secured a payment service provider licence with De Nederlandsche Bank N. V. to provide services in the Netherlands and the ability to exercise passporting rights to offer its services across the EEA).
Assuming higher operating expenses associated with these expansions, we are reducing EBITDA estimates by 6.4%/8.9% for FY24/25, resulting in FY24/FY25 EBITDA margin reducing by 205bps/293 bps, respectively. Our FY24/25 net income and EPS estimates are 13%/16% lower than before on lower operating earnings coupled with a higher tax rate (25%) assumption. Despite cuts to our estimates, we do not change our target price for the stock (174p) because we raise the valuation multiple slightly on the back of the growth guided in FY24 despite known headwinds that impacted the past year (calculation of the target price is explained in Valuation section).
And as expected, here comes the classic Stage 2 of the shorters strategy once their manipulation has been called out - fear.
They do this by starting a new account and then spam the forums with their scare tactic comments. These are followed up by some of their long-term accounts (that have probably never posted on CABP) suddenly taking an interest and posting "I agree" type comments.
We've been here before with that clown predicting a drop to 30p when we were at 80p. It's no surprise to hear 80p mentioned again, because that's where the shorters sold off originally and they are desperate to get it back there.
Just sit on your hands and watch the shorters get burned.
Shorters are indeed panicking as the drop hasn't been anything like enough to avoid them losing a pile of money, even with the assistance of some fairly dodgy pricing by market makers. The intention is to force private investors to sell in fear. A consequence of low liquid float is that private investors move prices far more than they ever would in a normal situation. Don't expect FCA to be interested in apparent collusion between shorters and marketmakers, at most there will be a word had in private telling them not to be such naughty chaps. Sit tight and keep calm, the next reporting date and US license will be here before you can know it. Hold steady and need the shorters dry.
This board is always good for a laugh, @SmallHands. The trade of the year was you retail sods buying the pile of crap that a Nigerian fund dumped on the market locking in their pnl. No understanding of the fundamentals around any of this, clearly. Even the banks that underwrote this public offering shorted it at one point. This is worth 80-90p at best until they can evidence they have a sustainable business that doesn’t revolve around 2-3 countries and hiding their Nigerian bank account statements. The only clowns I see here are the ones desperate to justify a punt on a business they have no understanding of. How many wishful thinking, GME wannabe stocks are you holding in your portfolio, mate? If the answer is a non-zero number, you should probably seek help. Call free 0808 8020 133.
Looks like we've moved on from fear to ad-hominem attacks. I'm calling that Stage 3.
As you're such as expert on this share can you please:
1. Name the Nigerian fund that dumped this on the market?
2. Of course banks shorted this at launch. They also went long. This happens on every single IPO. Do you not know what hedging means? Tell me, how many of those banks still hold short positions considering this is going to drop 50% according to you?
3. Why are the other existing shorters trying to close out? Have they just made too much money and feel sorry for everyone? Or perhaps they know this is only increasing?
4. All the talk about fundamentals, but perhaps you can enlighten us all clowns on how you were able to use your expert knowledge of these to come to your 80-90p valuation?
5. Comparing this stock to GameStop? You had low credibility before, but this is hilarious.
I know it's wrong to feed the obvious trolls, but sometimes they are just too funny to ignore.
P.S. I notice your reference to 'retail sods' in your comment. Does this imply you're a broker or professional investor?
Silencedogoode is a laugh. I don't know his/her credentials, but I know my own. There are definitely some speculators around, as opposed to investors, and perhaps they deserve to be burned if they don't understand the game. However, there's a difference between misunderstanding what you have and being shafted by unscrupulous players. The fundamental proposition of this business remains unchanged. Although short term pressures can adversely affect it, same as any other business, the fact remains that it is a good long term investment. Don't be frightened into selling and lining other people's pockets.
On support now, you wouldn't want to see if dropping through here. Overall market not helping though.
Searchinhg for stops, buyers now have a great oportunity imv
You must have some high standards. Are you saying that a company that has
* £130m in cash with almost no debt
* A margin of ~25%
* Revenue of ~120m
* Growth of ~ 20-25%
* Been doing this for decades and understands the markets it operates
Is worth at most £228m (90p)? A £100m more than the book value? I mean everyone is free to have their opinion, but I would be keen to know which other investments you have in your portfolio that shadow CAB.
@SmallMoves
Ahh, mate. If you are not aware of who owned this firm before the IPO (Helios IP) and still owns majority or the fact that it was initially acquired for ~£30MM some 8 years ago and then dumped on the open market at a massively inflated valuation lining the pockets of said fund with retail money before collapse, then you should do some research. Let us also disregard the timing coincidence of their Nigerian central bank issues taking place under their noses after 3 years of supposed high-growth, but conveniently not disclosed before selling to the public. Perhaps on their next call you want to ask them if they have recently lost value in any other countries to supposed central bank interventions that aren't disclosed in their H1 report. I suppose it doesn’t help that their JP Morgan analyst doesn’t even formally cover the Fintech/Payments sector.
Anyone claiming it is a positive point they have been doing this business for decades before the IPO is guilty of lazy research into whether any of that time was profitable enough to say they were good at what they do and to believe in these unsustainable growth figures. l'd also recommend reaching out to their people to learn more about the business. The Dutch seem particularly candid.
The GME reference was not comparing the firms but rather a comment on the desperation and strange David vs. Goliath bullet points that this thread contains. “Help! The shorts are evil!” To be clear, I am not recommending anyone shorts the shares. Surely, you noticed that my initial comment was “Take Profit”and that I have owned the shares. My view is the shares will go back to 80-90p because the numbers were inflated at inception and the FT articles I’ve seen only seem to scratch the surface of some of the underlying challenges. l would also recommend you learn the stark contrast between CABP and firms such as Adyen and Wise PLC to whom they compared themselves to inflate valuation.
You hold and we can reconvene at the end of July.
Looks like shorters want to close their shorts before July results. So they started becoming active and spread misinformation for volume. But as such, pIs own very less percentage of shares, so useless efforts by shorters.
There are some valid points in Silencedogoode's more recent post, but that's not saying he's wholly correct about forward prospects. Even if you slash the forward numbers by 75% (ouch), that would simply mean reduced price growth going forward (and would make a current valuation of 80p more tenable).
Worth remembering that retail investors were not the only ones involved in the IPO. As regards IPOs more generally, there are still, unfortunately, a large number of folks who recall privatisation issues and think all IPOs are like that. Similarly, there are a large number of private investors who habitually use stops because they fail to understand their limitations and are lazy or incompetent in their research. I'd agree that bleating private investors are being done down by institutional investors is sometimes wrong because it's often untrue, but there are also occasions where there is certainly market manipulation.
Ultimately, CABP is a judgement call. My view remains that 200p by year end is feasible; progress beyond that I'd expect to be gradual, with reclaiming launch price maybe two to three years away. Certainly a buy and hold presently.
Sold the lot, won't be back, bye CABP LOL
PP what happened to sitting on your hands and this is a top up opportunity before the next leg up? Lol
Tiger
Come on now, do don't believe people say genuine things on here do you? lol
Mr/Mrs SilenceDogoode
Your 1st ev
Mr/Mrs SilenceDogoode
Your 1st ever post I think was some sort of a research note. You didn't actually state who wrote that.
Is there a link? Or did you just make it up
As I hope it's not that note that has gone out to the privileged few which explains the selling.
@fre1
The adjustment figures I posted were published on June 5th by a JPMorgan Cazenove analyst named Sandeep Deshpande, who has been covering these shares. Take them with a grain of salt, though, as he is out of his depth in the fintech/payments sector and actually has a background in hardware companies. Doesn’t help that the FCA clearly makes no provision for recourse in the event of misrepresented financial projections and pithy due diligence by bankers (this is probably how JP Morgan and Barclays got away with peddling this IPO at such a mad valuation).
So JP Morgan note went out most probably to the privileged on the 3rd June, then to a wider pool on 5th, which now explains the rapid fall. There will be some who simply follow the big investment houses. Hope it's not any funds selling out. From the note the biggest concern is next to no growth this year, when many have been predicting a very healthy growth figure.
My only problem is last year h1 was 93m and h2 45m, comparatively, looking at like for like picture, I am certain they are never going to be anywhere near 93m, vis a vis probably be 30% lower. Positive is the European license, and expectation for a US license in second half of this year. Brilliant business, just needs a reset.
SmallMoves
You talk from where toilet paper should be used, I expect this to go sub £1 by the end of July.
Trust nobody on these BB's, it's a game where some of us take money from the others, don't be the others
Sp28, I would take JPM's so called "Research Note" with a pinch of salt based on the track record of the person(s)/team which published it.
Naturally, these people have to justify their salaries and make an assessment on the company they are researching. Then, they have to publish their findings and produce lots of facts and figures based on their interpretation of what they believe will happen to the company/shares.
Obviously, these "researchers" do not know what is happening at board level and are unlikely to be notified of any major developments the executive team have planned for CABP.
These "researchers" are just paid professionals who are employed and have to produce reports (to be able to say they are actually doing some work for their company), based on what they think at the time of writing. Some they predict correctly that the share price is overdone....so they get a pat on the back if the price falls back. Some, they get wrong - simple!
It's like the gambler in all of us....we only tell people about our winners and keep any losses to ourselves.
I'm in the for the long term and see the share price reaching it's high for the year in 2024 and then steadily increasing to over IPO levels in 2025.
All in my opinion and no advice intended - DYOR.
Good luck all (and don't panic)
Can anyone link the research note being discussed?
When I Googled it I got reminded that JPM worked on the IPO and therefore established the IPO price, weeks before taking out a large short. Still want to trust them?
https://www.cityam.com/jp-morgan-unit-opens-short-bet-against-cab-payments-months-after-bank-worked-on-ipo/
The reason I want to read it is to see for myself if they have factored in the growth from the new EU license, the US license expected in H2, the higher interest rate environment, the onboarding of 2 huge banks (Barclays and Santander) that was happening in April of this year, the increased revenue from organisations like Save the Children etc etc.
Onc the shorts are closed, these new gang of negative people organised by those shorters disappear. Half yearly results report is a month away, so those shorts are also panicky, hence they are aggressive and opened several new accounts to spread misinformation.
This is dated September 2023 so not relevant now?