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Great news!
Both individuals of Working Capital Advisors are from Singapore 🤔
CABP better not be taken over!!
Been saying for a while, it is a Cash Cow.
5%+ free float gone just like that. Last few weeks just been a simple transfer from impatient holders to these big boys.
That's a nice percentage, hopefully they are in the know lol
As suspected someone has been quietly building a sizeable position
Another 5% of free float gone
Could get very interesting 🚀
A good time to top up now CAB is in its closed period and those with insider information are not allowed to trade. Should see a significant re rating end of the month.
Summary
- CAB Payments is undervalued and trading at a PE of 5 after its recent 72% price decline.
- The company has experienced rapid growth - 79% per year from 2020-2022 and 25% in 2023.
- Their scalable, transparent, and cost effective products have a customer retention rate of 96% and net revenue retention of 150%.
- CAB (Crown Agents Bank) Payments (OTCPK:CABPF) is an undervalued (P/E of 5), rapidly growing (25% YoY), and out of favor (down 72%) global money transfer business hiding within a 191-year-old UK bank.
- Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
- THE EXPERIENCE, NETWORK AND KNOWLEDGE OF THIS BOARD AND EXECUTIVE TEAM IS MORE IN-KIND TO A $100 BILLION DOLLAR LARGE CAP THAN A $250 MILLION DOLLAR MICRO-CAP
- CAB’s management team is aligned with shareholders as they IPO’d with a clean balance sheet, outside of a 7% minority interest
- CAB’s payment and FX products have multiple advantages over the incumbent correspondence banking system that accounts for 80-85% of the cross-border payments occurring today. CAB products are scalable, transparent, fast, and cost less
- If CAB’s product has a durable advantage, they are operating in a market estimated to be $56 - $271 trillion dollars and expanding at 7.3% per year. CABs advantage lies in emerging markets, which has a market size of $2 trillion and CAB’s current market share is estimated to be only 1-2%.
- The current valuation appears low and I expect CAB to re-rate higher if they continue to execute and diversify their geopolitical risk. To put their current price into perspective, it is 1/2 the valuation of regional banks (P/E 10), and 1/8 of their fintech payments brethren Wise (P/E of 45) and Shift4 Payments (P/E of 50). Flywire (FLYW) which is not perfect, but a business to business comparison has an expected 2024 P/E ratio of 123
- How long can CAB continue to hold a P/E of 4-5 when their peers are valued 2-24x more. If the re-rating does not occur through investor demand, CAB could buy back their own shares as they are estimated to cash flow more than £50M in 2024 while growing revenue 20-35%.
Look forward to share buybacks, with the tight free float, low liquidity, should get very interesting 📈
7 days remain, tick tock...
We're thrilled to have been shortlisted for the Technology Innovation of the Year category at the Professional Pensions Awards.
Congratulations to our pensions team and this year's finalists. We've got our fingers crossed! 🤞
You can find the full shortlist here: https://lnkd.in/euPUJ4u2
#TeamCAB #Shortlisted
After today just 9 trading days remain 😉....
Listening to a Robert Peston podcast this morning talking about the LSE being massively undervalued due to major structural issue I.e. Institutional holders have moved away from UK companies. CABP is a prime example of significantly undervalued companies on every single metric, if in the US, CABP would be worth billions.....
Premium Listed Company ✅️
UK Banking License ✅️
Significant Growth - 25% in 2023 ✅️
A Truly World Class Management Team ✅️
Recently quoted they have the knowledge expertise and skills to be running a $100 Billion company ✅️
Profitable ✅️
Huge FCF Positive - £37.9m in H123 ✅️
Consensus FCF est: 2024 - £73m/2025 - £106m
Cash - Should have £140m+ by end of 2024 ✅️
Clean balance sheet after IPO ✅️
Significant growth potential - 2 Licenses pending anytime ✅️, currently have just 1-2% of the total market ✅️
Types of Customers - High quality and growing customer base, made up of G10 government entities, some of the world's best known international development organisations, global remittance companies, emerging markets financial institutions and, increasingly, major market banks ✅️
Territories - Operate in 150 different countries ✅️
Significant Blue Chip Customers - 74 New customers between Q1-Q3 in 2023. Eg New clients in several regions, including Santander Group/PagoNxt. Signing client agreements with the three largest exchange houses in the United Arab Emirates etc ✅️
Super High EBITDA Margin - 57% in H123, is this one of the highest on FTSE ✅️
Recurring revenue - 96% 3 year retention ✅️
ULTRA low P/E - Less than 4x for 2024 ✅️
2024 EV/EBITDA Est - Totally disconnected to Fair Value - Current Market Cap £250m, Debt N/A, Cash £140m, EBITDA £83m = 1.32x 🤯 Yes 1.32, it's totally mind blowing ✅️
IMO Dividends/Share buybacks will come in 2024, then it's a full house, there will be no stopping ✅️
We kind of know 2023 results, more interested in 2024 guidance. Maybe also get Q1 trading update next month. With the expansion, new clients onboarded, 2024> could look spectacular. H1 23 growth was 94%, with a reset in H2 and new licenses granted, structural shift to specialist providers like CABP, and like they said expansion in US and Eurupe, growth in the next 12-18months could be phenomenal.
DYOR
10 more working days until CAB Results.
I'm predicting an average price increase per day so 115p by 26/03/24. IMO - DYOR etc.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/nigeria-sees-surge-forex-inflow-overseas-remittances-rise-2024-03-08/
ABUJA, March 8 (Reuters) - Foreign exchange inflows to Nigeria rose to $2.3 billion in February, the central bank said on Friday, fuelled by renewed interest from foreign investors and a rise in overseas remittances.
Africa's largest economy has been experiencing crippling dollar shortages that have pushed its naira currency to record lows in recent weeks and forced the central bank to devalue the naira twice in less than a year.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spokesperson Hakama Sidi Ali said foreign investors bought at least $1 billion of Nigerian assets last month, bringing total receipts of portfolio inflows to $2.3 billion. That compares with $3.9 billion for the whole of 2023.
CBN data also showed overseas remittances more than quadrupled to $1.3 billion in February, compared with $300 million a month earlier, Sidi Ali said in a statement.
"All the different measures we have taken to boost reserves and create more liquidity in the markets have started to pay off," CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said in the statement.
The CBN's series of measures to boost forex liquidity include limiting how much banks can hold in foreign currency, capping their net open positions at 20% of shareholders' funds, and outlawing street-trading of foreign currency.
Higher forex inflows have continued in March, Sidi Ali said, driven by increased investor interest in short-term sovereign debt after the CBN hiked its key interest rate by 4 percentage points to 22.75%, the highest in around 17 years to tame soaring inflation.
At the CBN's Open Market Operation auction on March 6 when it sold securities worth 1.053 trillion naira, bids from foreign investors accounted for 79% of the total, or $530 million, Sidi Ali said.
Reporting by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo; Editing by Leslie Adler
Looks like a rectangular bull flag forming on the 5d
The smaller free float moves the shareprice faster
A strange day at the office all round! 450k of sells to 150k of buys with the share price only dipping by a few pence before bursting upwards at the finish. Trades going through for 102.8 to buy before 4pm and then up to 110.8 before close. No idea what was behind that but I am hopeful of a steady rise up to results on the 26th. Gla
Why the sudden uptick in buys for the last 30 mins?
I have been holding since the big drop and bought in a it seemed cheap and not sold since, so looking forward to a continued rise with results hopefully very positive!
Our VP of Emerging Market Financial Institutions, Mauricio Munguía is representing Crown Agents Bank this week at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and IDB Invest annual meetings of the boards of governors in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.
From the 6-10th March, economic and financial leaders from 48 member countries of the IDB gather to discuss development topics covering climate change, economic growth in emerging markets, social and financial inclusion and so much more...
Reach out to Mauricio for a meeting and to find out more about the event, see https://lnkd.in/d4q9c3h
#idbinvest2024 #development #growth
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:7171149752338776064
From Linkedin
Last night during the Central Banking Spring meetings, Simon Huckle and Barkot Tekle from our Emerging Markets FIs team, hosted a roundtable dinner on behalf of Crown Agents Bank.
With moderation provided by Judith Ndissi, the session explored the complexities that exist for central bankers in settling foreign debt commitments whilst managing valuable international reserves and the solutions available that allow for funding international payments from local currency liquidity.
Special thanks to Judith and to all who attended this engaging session. We look forward to following up further with the solutions discussed and an action-packed second day to close out the event.
#centralbanks #fx #solutions
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/crownagentsbank_centralbanks-fx-solutions-activity-7171167315072331776-QE6W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
The tradeable free float of shares still looks very small which is ideal for a big move up...
Haha THE IRONY of some!
Someone who has incessantly posted on the GGP board, including daily share price commentary and even starting a new thread about share price predictions ROFL, trying to give someone else advice LMAO. COMICAL.
I will do as I wish, thanks, apologies if some simple facts hurt Lol
""THE EXPERIENCE, NETWORK AND KNOWLEDGE OF THIS BOARD AND EXECUTIVE TEAM IS MORE IN-KIND TO A $100 BILLION DOLLAR LARGE CAP THAN A $250 MILLION DOLLAR MICRO-CAP""
Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
Plutus, please calm down. You have no idea what the company will decide to do with its excess cash this year or any other year.
You remind me of a friends Yorkshire Terrier that used to get so excited when I visited, it would wee all over my shoes. Whilst it's nice to see someone enthusiastic, your contant stream of copied and pasted posts are giving me flashbacks of urine soaked shoes. I'm sure you mean well.
No need to reply, I won't be able to see it.
Looking strong today
With just 15 days left to CAB Payments 1st full update, wonder what/when they will initiate the return of excess cash to shareholders?
Free Cashflows are staggering.
In H1 23, 52.8% FCF when compared to revenue (Revenue £71.8m/FCF £37.9m), it's unheard of.
Free Cash Flows:
2022 - £50m (ACTUAL)
H1 2023 - £37.9m (ACTUAL)
2024 - £73m (EST)
2025 - £106m (EST)
What are they going to do with over £70m FCF this year and over £100m FCF next year!
They simply have too much Cash if that is such a thing 🤯, for growth/expansion/investment. Surely some sort of returns to shareholders has to be on the cards.
They returned nearly £19m in dividends before IPO last year, or 7.7p a share.
DYOR
I found the reasons why Helios has to sell down their 41% in CABP before they can apply for USD
Clearing House Interbank Payments System. 'CHIPS'
Anti - competitive concerns & conflicts of interest
Helios Fund III At September 30, 2023 the underlying portfolio investments in Helios Fund III were primarily comprised of investments in: (i) a public
company providing cross border payment and foreign exchange services across Africa;
(ii) a public company providing electronic payment processing
services in Egypt
Helios Fund IV (ii) a private company providing cross-border electronic payment processing services globally (including Africa)
Indirect Equity Interest in Access Bank SA, listed on Nigerian stock exchange.
Also, the 2023 to 2026 exit range is to be considered normal.
It matches the the exit ranges length in the other Funds.
Small moves, there's a very good summary here and the author is also invested in CABP.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666496-cab-payments-pe-of-5-while-growing-more-than-25-percent-a-year
thanks smoothoperator , that statement is probably what's driving these sa and advfn posts which all seem to be a copy & paste of each other based off one persons view of what they think may or may not happen. they could of course be spot on, or completely wide of the mark. who knows?
my read on this is that there's nothing here though to suggest that helios' exit strategy on cabp is different to that of any other pe on any other company i.e. invest -> build the company value up -> sell and take huge profits -> repeat on next company. there's also nothing to suggest it's a pre-requisite to any license or approvals, or that any 3rd party has mandated they exit by a certain date. the dates they give are also somewhat flexible (targets not deadlines) and are not specific as to actual date (is it before jan 1st? before financial year end? before end of calendar year?).
the only pre-reqs i could find to get the us licence side of things through were a) have to be publicly traded (tick) and b) no one party can have overall control i.e. 25% or more of shares (not done yet). i may be wrong on both of these though, as surely there are privately held banks that are licensed? i'm not close enough to us banking regulations to work out how all their rules are implemented in reality, but i'm sure there's a well rehe****d process that cabp are following and helios are well aware of any potential impacts to their holdings and have planned accordingly, ensuring they obtain maximum value for their investment at all times.
one other point that interests me around this discussion is how all of this might also apply to the eu license? doesn't the eu generally mirror the us requirements around banking? i believe cabp were clear that they wanted (expected) to get the eu license sorted by end of 2023, so if there is a similar ownership requirement in the eu there must surely have been a plan to fix all of this before then? does the share price drop mean that the original disposal plan is now out of the window and we won't see eu or us license progress any time soon? i strongly suspect that won't be the case, as they specifically mentioned the importance of eu and us in their recent press release, which makes me think either plan a is about to be completed or they have switched to a very cunning plan b.
i'm really looking forward to results day where hopefully we'll get some clarity on where we are with both of these license application processes, and if there's any significant new markets they are planning to enter this year as i still think south america is a huge untapped area for them.