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With the election looming and a lab govt incoming, it seems as if house building is the subject of much angst and promises (ha ha) for an overhaul. what are the predictions for bdev with a labour govt? is there a construction/housebuilder type company that's set to really benefit? I hold a few bdev and thinking of adding. what think you good people?
If this deal unravels, share price will go up . theres no doubt about that, these are super cheap at the moment, just to prove I am putting my money where my mouth is I am about to buy 9999 shares to add to my holding...
I'm not sure what effect this investigation will have on the short term share price as surely this would have been factored in already as a given as its such a large deal on the table?
The UK Competition & Markets Authority said it will investigate the planned GBP2.52 billion takeover of Redrow by Barratt. The CMA said the investigation will assess whether the creation of that merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition within any market. "To assist it with this assessment, the CMA invites comments on the transaction from any interested party," the watchdog said, with invitation to comment closing on June 28. The CMA has a deadline of August 8 for its phase 1 decision. It had opened a preliminary investigation in March, after the all-share takeover was announced a month earlier. Housebuilders have already attracted the attention of the CMA. In February, the regulator said it found "fundamental concerns" within the UK housebuilding market, and launched an investigation into eight housebuilders, including Redrow and Barratt. Publishing its final report on the housebuilding market which followed a year-long study, the CMA found that "the complex and unpredictable planning system, together with the limitations of speculative private development, is responsible for the persistent under delivery of new homes".
Barratt Developments price target raised to 540 GBp from 488 GBp at Berenberg
Yes , it was in by lunchtime
Hi,
Has anyone had the dividend payment today?
Thanks
Date: Monday 13 May 2024
LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - UK supermarket group Asda on Monday revealed plans to redevelop a 10-acre site in North West London, hoping to create a new town centre that includes 1,500 new homes.
The grocer said it is partnering with develop Barratt Developments to redevelop the brownfield site, currently home to its Park Royal Superstore in the Borough of Ealing.
The proposal, which is subject to planning approval, will see Asda build a new 60,000 square foot superstore and car park, in addition to 1,500 new homes - 500 of which will be affordable - "creating a new town centre for the local community".
The mixed-use redevelopment of an established store site is a first for Asda and follows moves by a number of other retailers to get into the house-building game, such as Sainsbury's which submitted plans in October to deliver 2,519 new homes alongside a new 1,300 sq ft store near Ladbroke Grove.
While there was no financial information given, Asda said in a statement that the plans represent "one of the largest land deals of the last couple of years".
Ian Lawrence, head of mixed-use developments at Asda, said Asda's foray into mixed-use redevelopment marks a "significant milestone for the business".
"By working with leading developers like Barratt London, we are able to maximise the full potential of our property portfolio for the first time."
Lawrence added that Asda is "also unlocking further opportunities to release value from our extensive property portfolio, which can be reinvested back into the business to fund other initiatives".
gla
Took some profits with one of my miners yesterday ........ buying back into BDEV.
Sold before the Redrow deal was announce 562p.
gla
"So as the resolution was passed yesterday does that now mean we all get 1.44 shares for each one we hold ?"
..........................
Willy,
Not quite yet, the Fat Lady still has to sing...
The Fat Lady in this instance in officialdom...
If you check out the Barratt circular in the RMS dated 19th April, the timetable allows for (hoped for) approval of the deal happening during the second half of this year...
Until such time, this is an aspiration ~ albeit maybe a likely one, though it would be above my paygrade to have a view on that ~ rather than a done deal...
Which is why, at the time of writing, Barratt's share price is i515.2p, so 1.44 x that is 741.89p, yet Redrow's share price is only 728.5p.
So, the gap ~ between 741.89p and 728.5p being 13.39p, or 1.8% of the 1.44 rating ~ will reflect any market twitchiness about the deal maybe, just maybe, not going through....?
If you happen to be drinking buddies with the Captain (Hindsight) ~ which sadly I ain't ~ then you would surely have an opportunity to make an extra bob or two...?
Because if he told you that the deal would go through, you'd get the benefit of the inevitable relative price hike (relative between Barratt and Redrow, that is, there's no absolute here) by being invested in Redrow shares, and if he told you it would fail, you could sell Redrow and then re-buy once the result was announced and Redrow's share price (almost inevitably) fell back again....
In relative terms, of course... :-)
Personally, I was very fortunate to be 100% invested in Redrow at the time of the offer (I don't get many of those right) and I sold the same day , got a result, and don't wish to overly push my luck...
Anyway, hope that helps..?
Strictly
So as the resolution was passed yesterday does that now mean we all get 1.44 shares for each one we hold ?
Wondering whether to reinvest my dividend on Friday
Drift the usa economy is growing at around 3% based on energy costs that are half ours and taxation around 66% of ours which is reflected in future earnings and hence sp. Our prosects are grim and labour will not help. Net zero opportunities in the UK is what net zero means in reality.
“Details” at https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/barratt-slash-redrow-merger-inquiry
It’s hard to see how the merger of the largest and 7th largest creates competition concerns when PSN, TW and Bellway aren’t far behind BDEV.
Finally, the CMA has got involved! RDW not a done deal yet.
I would also like to see what holders views on UK house builders going compared to US Counterparts.
KBH Home ( biggest house builder $5.2bn), has grown 196% in 5yrs since.
BDEV has lost 21% same period of time.
It seems to be all US equities have outperformed !
Why is this?
The US equities do carry a lower yield, like 1.7% for KBHome.
Views please..
Thus also applies to oilies as well.
XOM +750% plus dividends( USA)
SHEL 144% plus dividends in that period
BP. 320% plus dividends
CVX. 700% plus dividend's (USA)
On the quality of builds. I do believe Mctaggart & Mickel are one of the best. Think a US company acquired them?
I do live in a Victorian Red sand stone build from 1912. Would’ve nice to bring these back rather than the paper thin new builds
Own new rate reducer mortgage scheme is being launched on Monday. This is making new build properties more attractive to buyers than the 2nd hand market. Launching initially with Barratts
Trout. I hope you don’t mind. Your comments sparked so many similar thoughts.
I left school at 15 with no qualifications but pushed by my parents to find a job, any job, that could contribute to the family’s poor income by way of paying “board”. I joined the University of Life in the building trade of the 60s where health and safety, diversity and ESG would have been laughed off site by brickies, chippys and sparks. When arthritis kicked in as it inevitably does to tradesmen scrabbling around on the floor for years, I found myself in the Civil Service where 30 years in the building trade gave me a head start on the skivers, misfits, deviants, and the “instructors” who filled many a day a with “courses” designed to correct my thinking. I think a number of them were budding lefty politicians.
Just now I try to influence my two 18 year old 6th form grand kids to get a proper job in the real world and to be unswayed by thoughts of a partying debt-fuelled uni, the Mickey Mouse degrees and the brainwashing they will witness.
Fortunately, and influenced by their parents and grandparents, they both have part time jobs, one in a MacD, the other in a supermarket. They mix with people of other backgrounds and are learning about life in a far more rounded way than a University could. When they reached 18 they both received a sum of money with appropriate advice from Nana and Grandad, invested in their early years in amongst others, BDEV.
And now I am back in BDEV in a small way but looking to build my stake. GLA.
Interesting debate... I've always loved the phrase "standing on the shoulders of giants", meaning we don't have to discover everything from scratch but can learn from our predecessors and build on that knowledge. That can be applied to all avenues of life, but in schools it seems to be done very badly. We chuck random facts at children with no context of the history of why it is relevant. Take a subject like trigonometry... how often have we heard the phrase "when will I ever get to use this in real life?" Whose maths teacher ever explained that trigonometry provides a perfect model for working our the best place to convert a rugby ball from? We bore our children with facts without teaching them how to think, by showing them how these principles were discovered in the first place.
I'm of an age where I got a grant to go to university, but I quit after a year because it was a worse quality than I had experienced in school and 6th form. Now I find myself as an employer being presented with CVs of graduates who simply don't know how to think! They tout their qualifications, but have no practical experience of using any of this knowledge. Give me a 22 year old with four years of work under their belt over a 1st class honours graduate any day. And don't get me started on the levels of entitlement and salary expectations of these graduates!
If I had had children (I managed to escape that burden) I would definitely have encouraged them to learn a trade and only take on years of debt for university if they showed massive aptitude and desire to follow that path.
A plumber with integrity is worth 100 accountants in my book!
Hi Strictly,
I was watching a clip from Elon Musk on schooling and education, and I’ve tried to have
a conversation with some elites, his point basically is the whole principle of schooling
needs to be thrown out the window and started again.
Of course it won’t be, but it’s a common point from business that the kids coming out of
education are not fit for business. Why, is that, well it’s the great elites who run the shooting
match, and have no interest in what business is saying, and it’s needs.
A shame really, because the consequence particularly with the house building trade is
that all the house builders want to build is little noddy houses, which they have got
down to a semi skilled level of construction.
Tradesmen in there 50’s are leaving the industry in their masses, because it’s not the building
trade they all started in.
And, yes I know loads of self made people, who didn’t enjoy school purely because we just
all wanted to get out and start earning money and starting businesses. Even more opportunities today for hard working young people, and property is particularly appealing.
“London, the east end, where I grew up from a working class background has produced some of the best businessmen by far. “
………………..
Finley,
Well, I’m from West London, I’m afraid, but now living on (not in) Dartmoor….
I had record wholesaling then video wholesaling companies, back in the day from the mid ‘70’s, sold out in the mid ‘80’s, left the capital with others to manage until 2000 when I took it over myself and ended up all in house builder shares for the past twenty years…
And Captain Hindsight has shown that to have been a good call… but, another twenty years on from here, who knows?
But I’m imagining I’ll be pushing up daisies by then anyway ~ cheerful b.stard that I am…? 😊
But, yes, I’ve read plenty of biographies about successful businessmen and, back then, pretty much all of them didn’t do well at school…
Not because they were thick ~ far from it ~ but largely because they couldn’t stand being told what to do…
Just like me…! 😊
Strictly
I did like your comment about the boy from Bermondsey. London, the east end
where I grew up from a working class background has produced some of the
best businessman by far.
All out of hard working class values, and not a graduate in site, those were the days.
"Finally, I’ve found Bellway good to work for."
.....................
Finlay,
Thanks ~ good to hear that, especially now that, since last Wednesday, I am 100% invested in Bellway from having been, just the day before, 100% invested in Redrow… 😊
In our investing circle, Bellway are our “benchmark” share….
And Jason Honeyman, Bellway MD: Bermondsey lad, tick; didn’t go to university, tick; been in the building game since leaving school at 16, tick….
I don’t suppose folk who’ve been to university will think much of that, but there you go…!
Anyway, Bellway have pretty much always got it right in their forty years of having a stock market listing…. they are alone amongst the quoted house builders, that I track at any rate, in doing so in my view…
Though I would probably express it differently, I share your seeming concern about future prospects.
Bellway have averaged a 16% return on equity over the past forty years ~ that really is quite something.
However, from here, I’m only budgeting for them to gradually return to a 10% return on equity, and also taking several years to get there…
The three hundred year record for the Bank of England is that interest rates are typically around 5% and they may have moved away from that through periods ~ above in the late ‘80’s and ‘90’s and below since the credit crunch, but I’m allowing that, for all the talk, they’re not likely to move that much from here…?
I hope I’m wrong, but it seems to me that high borrowing costs as a percentage of income, due to the ratio of earnings to house prices, are likely to impact on house builder profitability, as the market inevitably does its bit to force them to take their share of the pain….?
And, in the interim, barring house price falls, I would say ~ from the inside as an investor ~ we just have to be patient and wait for inflation do its thing to bring down the cost of houses in real terms and so, in turn, increase the ability of people to buy them…?
And that’s hardly an overnight job, is it..?
But that is what is now seems to have been happening over the past year or more…
It seems to me that the country has become poorer….?
We may not be heading down the plug hole as a nation just yet , but it’s hardly a time for complacency on that front ~ I would suggest that anyone who has come across Alexander Tytler’s “Eight Stages of Democracy” would have reason for being concerned.. ☹
And he died back in 1813, so that was written a while back…!
Anyway, enough of that ~ good to exchange perspectives here, I would say, and in a civilised manner (especially as, by contrast, the Persimmon share chat seems to have recently descended into something of a series of hissy fits, which is hardly constructive…)
Strictly