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This is difficult.
I have made plenty of poor decisions buying and selling shares, selling and it then rises or vice versa. Last year I made a profit of approx 150% from which I have gained confidence from. I thought I had a magic touch. No I don’t. I put about 50% of my money into Barclays in July. My reasoning was tough Financial Times ahead. Barclays has a reasonable amount invested in US credit. Seems like a no brainer. When the results were released last week with 2bn profit Inwas ready for an uplift of 8% or more. This didn’t happen. Furthermore, NWG produce a poor report and due to computer algorithms Barclays decrease.
I can either stick with my original research or accept that it isn’t to be. Instead I’ve bought into yellow cake (uranium) and Atym (copper). After only 24 hrs I’m on starting to recoup some losses.
My advice - don’t expect the sp to follow a logical path ( ie increased demand for credit and banks suddenly make decent profit for the first time in 20 years) instead invest in the next big thing - alternative sources of energy.
I know exactly how you feel bladerunner. It is getting on for 8 years ago, when I made the biggest mistake of my life and getting involved with Barclays - with my holding then, at an average of around about £2.70 a share and the Barclays chief at the time saying they were looking to double the SP in 3 years. Well they managed to halve it instead! Since then, I have reduced my average to around £2.20, but it has meant increased exposure to a stock I want to get out of altogether. My current situation is that I am compelled to do something, rather than doing nothing. But my current strategy is dangerous. Selling a significant tranche at a 70p a share loss. in the belief that it will fall further and then buy back and bank the profit when it does. Repeat the action when another false rise occurs. But to think I have to bank well over £400 profit in such transactions to reduce my average by just 1 penny is a sobering thought! And the danger is of course that the SP goes the other way and continues to rise which, whilst good for the remainder of my holding, means that the 70p a share loss on the tranche sold is crystallised for good. Not good for my mental health!
I'm quietly confident we'll see a decent rise next week. Its being reported that Rishi isn't interested in a windfall tax and that interest rates will be hiked 75 points on Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised if Barc finished next week between 160-170.
TheReducer. I have been playing this game since 2009.
The hardest lesson I learned was not to hold a share regardless. This was sometimes a painful lesson. What has worked for me over the past 5 or so years, and exercising a fair bit of flexibility, was buying Barclays sub £1.40 and selling above £1.80. During this time there has been the opportunity to buy just below £1 and sell at £2.20+. It is about taking a profit and waiting for circumstances to change. What we all fear is selling @ £1.80 and missing the climb to £2.70, and in your case, profit. It hasn't happened yet but it doesn't mean it will not. Equally a smart move could be selling the next time the share hits £1.80, taking a 90p a share hit, and waiting to buy back in @ below £1.40.
This is why the game is so fascinating and the second lesson learned was that no one knows what will happen next so always follow your own strategy. Good luck.
Thanks for the advice, sounds really sensible. I’m currently over the moon with my purchase of Cine at rock bottom prices which looks like it’s heading in the right direction.
Good luck with your investments.
Good to see someone reducer,speaking the truth. Rather than a lot of fools writing that they have made heaps whereas they have done the opposite. You know who you are.
To Seaking1 - That's kind of you to say, though I still would rather be one of those making heaps!. I called it right with Powell & Bailey, but bought my shares back at £1.47 today to bank a £175 profit - which is exactly what I did last week. Small beer compared to my paper losses, but every little helps.
Opened a short again just now. I still see more downside than upside at these levels I’m afraid. Could be wrong. Good luck all, hope everyone’s well.
To Rookie1 - I will stick my neck out and say, subject to another bombshell being dropped (Putin, Barclays conduct, unforeseen domestic / global economic issues) I think we will see a reasonable rise in the Barcs SP leading up to the 17th November. If that follows, then I would be looking to sell a tranche on 16th November. The rationale for my thinking is that it is now out there - rising interest rates , worst recession since the great depression, unemployment doubling and so on - but the Barc SP and FTSE pretty much took it in their stride today. But I would expect some retreat / profit taking, before Sunak / Hunt deliver their mini-budget mark 2 on 17th November. I also feel that in the last week or so, the SP has been wanting to move into the £1.50's and out of the £1.40's. If it rises rapidly to £1.55 / £1.57 I will be looking to sell another tranche and buy back if it falls 4/5p. That is my modest strategy at the moment. But obviously none knows, we are all just working on our hunches. And please don't anyone follow my strategy - I have a terrible track record with this stock!
You could be right , thereducer. Barcs has marched on well today considering.
It may pop up to mid 50’s but as this short is only £300pp I’ll let it run. I think long term when I see more weakness I will increase a short here looking for around the £1 mark.
GLA
Added again £300pp at 151, looks the top.
Well that wasn’t one of my best calls.lol
It was a spot on call, you did say mid 150s! Its getting there.
Haha thanks razzledaz. Credit has to go to thereducer who was spot on.
I really think the markets have derailed myself, no logic whatsoever. We are heading for the biggest recession in history and the ftse rallied 2.6%! Lol
Short is £2k in the red currently, but we will sit tight and add on any more rises.
GLA
Hi Rookie, far be it from me to give advice…..
The stock market doesn’t often go with logic. We recently had 2bn profits yet the sp declined. When lockdown started shares shot up. Please do whatever you want to do and don’t act upon my advice. However, I have benefited from being au contraire. I bought on 20th March 2020 and quickly made 150%. I have recently benefited from a rise in commodity prices and CINE doubling in value. My next tip is ATYM to increase in the near future but please do your own research. I personally would not have too much invested in this share.
Morning guys! Hope everyone is well. I do have a read from time to time, just been super busy recently. Roll on the recession that's never coming lol. We have seen plenty of rallies in this bear market, reading below everyone is really cautious to this now. For Barc lets see if it can fill the September 28th gap circa 156. ATB Chaps.
Morning JayK
its always nice to pop in and take comparable view point, tough sometimes it can cause too much hesitance on clicking that mouse when needed.
Its always a case of DYOR and as we all know to well, not every trade works out, in fact it takes a few attempts at the obvious ones.
Where as I had been laying in the the hedge row waiting for this las t pattern since back in July, shared on here on the 26th, again when it triggered my alerts which I shared on the 12th Oct.
Once I had a gained a footing / paw in the door lol, shared on the 13th having S @ 132 moving up to 135.
Have to admit a couple of times I popped on here and had some self doubt, whether or not to cash in at 148 /150 instead it looked so text book I nearly went hard at Barcs on the 26th (also shared on here) missed only by a claw of wool.
Though now the defensive 151 is getting eaten into I have moved that S from 135 to 145 leaving a nice profit locked in for once.
Knowing a few on here were probably thinking ,why did I not cash in on the two slight fall backs, well I used to and found myself over trading and losing out on the return.
These days I find it a lot less stressful to pick some injured prey. Equals far less stalking and chasing around lol.
Regards to Barc's atm I am "Half glass full"
GLA
Please plough thru the typo's . . . lot of distraction going on atm
Hi Mr Wolf! Hope you are good. Nice trade, I remember you calling it out. I guess it depends what your doing, swinging, day trading, investment etc. Sounds like your looking for a swing trade which could extend. The market seems to change daily at the moment, some stablity is much needed, and if the 156 gap is filled we have a few MAs coming. A number of times Barc has stalled at the 200MA. I guess these could be good exit points.
I do like the crowd in this chat, 90% seem a decent bunch to just talk about our interest, for me thats all it is. This is where it is of benefit to a trading system, no if's or buts, no matter what anyone says. This is how my FTSE day trading strategy works, you have a set criteria, and out of these if all are met its an A+ trade and you can enter a larger position, etc. I know what you mean about exiting early, its very common, I do it alot when day trading. Its worth doing walk away anaylsis, grab a bunch of trades and see what the out come would of been if you stayed in the trade for an extra 10 mins, 1hr, 4hrs, 1 day etc. If you corrlate that all your takes would take 10% more profit if you stayed in an extra hour then you have the sauce. I'm going through that at the moment.
Who puts shorts on in November ffs.
Hi JayK
You are totally right there, Barcs loves the MA's especially the 200 EMA
This last trade is getting monitored am & pm atm.
Mr A did ask if I would post when it gets cashed in, which I will do.
Seem's we have a few trades in common, as the FTSE is a nice little earner, IG must despise these past 2 yrs lol
Its all swings and rounabouts aye.
Im done for the day now, just logged on to reply, if you are still at it, have great afternoon.
KInd regards W'
Rookie1 . . . .plenty of people mate, do not beat yaself up over it, Issac Newton had the right idea.
BOL
I read JayK mention the gap to fill at c156. It seems to be hitting the fence there and dropping back at the moment.
Grammar and illiteracy! I read lots of posts on this web site and am in despair at the standard (low and falling) of writing in English. A few examples from this page are "Issac Newton", "seem's", "would of" . . . . . If you do not know what is wrong with these: go back to school! Communication requires correctness. End of rant!
Fanks for the advice Bloggins :)
I will try and do as you say and head back to a school tomorrow morning.
Will let you know how I get on (if I don't get arretsed)