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You ask about the chartist position...
I'm no expert but just about everything I can see is positive.
The current trading range looks to be between £1.61 and £1.57 so we could well test those a few times before breaking through. There was a bullish looking MACD crossover yesterday which suggests to me that mid-long term (i.e. over the next month or so) the share price should break through the upper trading range. There looks to be deeper support at £1.46 and should we get there, £1.80ish looks to be an upper line of resistance.
But the charts aren't everything...we live in febrile times the geo-economic uncertainty around may have the final word.
Currently I'm happy to hold, the Autumn statement was relatively kind to the banking sector and they are churning profits and printing money at the moment with Barclays being no exception.
Well one of the better moves I made was closing my second short at 154.7 yesterday at around £1500 loss. Can’t get them all right but happy to close a position I was clearly wrong about.
Will keep an eye on barcs as I still think my pessimism is justified but may take a bit longer than originally thought to filter through.
Or ofcourse I could just be wrong and this is going much higher, which in the short term does look to be the case.
Congratulations to all the longs and those making money of these swings, well played. Have a good weekend and ATB everyone
To badjob: Entirely agree with you. The dividend cancellation for Covid was a scandal, having gone ex-div. The bank deliberately hiding behind a Govt directive. But I see no reason, given that the losses didn't materialise, why the bank could not then have paid an extraordinary dividend to those holders who were entitled to the dividend in the first place. It was all too convenient for Barcs to hang on to the money. They are only interested in looking after those who run the bank and not those that own it. Even Staley pretty much said he felt embarrassed as to to how long-suffering Barc's shareholders were being let down and promised to rectify the situation with 'progressive dividends' (my ****) - he never did. And the buy-backs - don't get me started. What on earth has been achieved with the £2.5bn so far shelled out? The SP is still more than 20p less than it was when the buy backs began! And it sickens me how the bank points out what it thinks is an impressive Return on Equity rate, when it is based on the current and appallingly depressed SP. Dividend rewards are there for investors - I stress the word investors - the inference being long-term shareholders, some of whom (not me) will have bought in when the SP was nearly £8. Since those times, returns have been nigh on negligible in comparison to the sums they will have invested. It is so evident how difficult it is to shift the SP of this stock northwards and it is entirely down to how the bank has behaved over the last 15-20 years and how it has treated shareholders - it is the company not to trust. The only way they can start repairing the damage they have done is to now put shareholders first, but they have absolutely no intention of doing so.
I think Barclays should be looking at rather more generous returns to shareholders. Although their profits have continued to impress, they have still not paid out the dividend that was cancelled with covid. What has happened to that? Anticipated profits after tax for the current year are in excess of £5bn after impairment provisions. A £2.5bn pay out, which should be achievable, would equate to a yield of 10% at the current depressed share price. They might be reluctant to pay out because of political fears etc but they need to bite that bullet. Share buy-backs only really count as a pay out at all to the extent they are larger than new share issuance. Sustainable and significantly more generous dividends should, if they come, prompt a re-rating. The fact it is only yielding around 3-4% at the current share price is frankly pathetic.
As I see it Barclays (and the other banks) are seeing their tax rise to 28% - 25% Corp Tax and 3% surcharge tax. This was flagged up before the Autumn Statement/carefully leaked to the media. Previously the tax situation would have been 19% Corp Tax plus 8% surcharge tax. So a rise of 1% overall. That's pretty lenient considering. There are other taxes to factor in though.
Short-to-mid term - certainly until financial year end and maybe Q1 next year the future looks good even though we are in recession in the UK. Bear in mind that Barclays has good geographical diversification so isn't over reliant on the domestic market.
Good afternoon Mr A,
Trust this day finds you all well and in profit, im sure you will find an entry point to "lump on" as we are approaching the playground bulldog soon (The 200 MA) always get a bite from that lol.
Fortunately yesterdays punt is looking tempting to close too, just logged on to monitor the US waking up, hopeing for a positive nudge and I'm closed out, until we clear through the 200, still looking @ 170 mind you.
Seaking1, Yes indeed, far better than it could have been.
Razzledaz, yes but look at the profits they have achieved in playing with near zero interest rates. Lots of negative is out weighed with better rates. Barcs have had to restructure its books several times this last decade.
It does appear that finally the, re: Tide is turning lol
M1k3Y, hope your well, most of those articles all read far more positive than hesitant for once.
Trust you all have a nice weekend.
Regards W'
Actually it means the bank surcharge is being reduced from 8% to 3%, de;livering a net benefit to banks profit margins.
Https://www.cityam.com/government-slashes-bank-surcharge-in-boost-for-the-city/
So this is in the statement so no direct change in the 3% levey but will pay more as Corp Tax increased
Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge - Following the decision to proceed with the Corporation Tax rate increase to 25% from April 2023, the changes to the Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge which are legislated to take effect from the same point will also go ahead. This means that from April 2023, banks will be charged an additional 3% rate on their profits above £100 million – meaning that they will continue to pay a higher combined rate of corporation tax than most other companies, and a higher rate than they did previously.
At last I do believe the tide is turning for the financial sector which I have some funds in .All my funds and share are in isas so no tax on profit or dividends.
Good budget for financials but not for taxpayers.
MrWolf,
I hope you are well my friend? Driving to Malta? My God… a journey and a half in my eyes. Hadn’t been for 20 years and luke warm to the development that had taken place. But as far as a cheap week goes, couldn’t knock the accommodation, food or weather. Many thanks for your updates on your trades. Very interesting… thank-you for sharing. Truly grateful.
As I think I may have mentioned before, thankfully my traditional buy and sell trades are always within my self-select isa. So today’s announcement via the Autumn Statement of a reduction in CGT won’t affect me directly.Similarly, I’m not an Investor for Dividends, so again no direct downside for me on that point. That said, I need to read up on all other elements of today’s announcement as I’m sure that I will be hurt in other ways. I’m sure I read somewhere of Andrew Bailey being described as the worst B of E Governor of all time. If I find the link, I’ll post it.
Anyway, I’m still sniffing around for my own re-entry point for my ‘lump’. Typically looking for a circa 10% return give or take on my capital, so are struggling to see very short term how £1.55 can turn into £1.70 at this precise moment in time. As seen, the trend and momentum can change very, very quickly in either direction, so who knows? I may get one final purchase in before the year end, even more so if £1.45 or less were to return but will not be rushed.
Any updates or thoughts from Chartists on the Barclays Price Movement actively encouraged and listened to.
Good Luck All, MrA
Morning 2 all,
Mr A, you did enquire if I would keep your good self abreast .
So, having stalked my last position from months back with a T of 170 from 134 back on the 12th Oct.
With this week and hitting the buffers (EMA & breaching tight framed RSi) I closed out for 159.40 (Posting last Fri 10.55am)
leaving me cautious as to what lay lurking over the weekends tension.
Which I am glad I did now, as all hell could have broken loose if over them two stray missiles. If not for a few keeping their heads and avoiding hand bags at dawn.
Barcs charts yesterday had a few short term false signals, even caught out a friend who got stopped out at 154 (from 15.94) confident he was grabbing the early worm, couldn't see it myself. Though in fairness he's usually bang on.
So taking a step in advance myself today I have gone L @ 153.75 / S @ 152 having gained a few % on the slight EMA resistance and budget hesitance.
Anyhow I hope this sticks and we can look forward to my original T into 170.
Paws crossed, GLA
. . . An option to buy Brent crude for $200 per barrel in March 2023 at one point last week became the most traded contract on the market, signalling that despite concern about Chinese demand, expectations of tighter supply were still going strong.
Just what we need to price in alongside a nice run of stagflation lol
What is still niggling in the back of my head, is Fat Boy smugly saying his fave word "Transitory"
The bloke may have a great c.v, in reality he is nothing more than a blundering, lying disgrace.
Who is not fit to be G' at the BoE.
Before anyone thinks ole Mr W's just on a rant lol DYOR on Bailey.
UK M.P .....‘We need to take a root-and-branch look at this. I therefore support a further investigation along the lines of the Elizabeth Gloster Report on London Capital and Finance, which was extremely critical of the FCA and individuals within the FCA – including Andrew Bailey.’
Not to mention him lying to a government enquiry panel, over his acknowledgement of critical emails he sent regarding RBS, back in the day when Mark Wright blew the whistle.
How can we the public / tax payers have someone so dishonest taking control of our monetary system, beggars belief ! Honestly makes me question the fact, is our government not just taking strategic reference, from old sketches out of Yes, Prime Minister ?
Is there anyone in power with influence to stop these fools ?
Because all I can see is a train wreck, trashed NHS, abusing our back bone British farmers (Bojo's botched NZ / Australia free trade deal)
"But we can sell them lots of whiskey and biscuits !" Completely destroying living standards for Joe Average whilst trying to pay commuting costs, child care, mortgage repayments and lets not forget "eating or heating " for our OAP's (who we should be respecting and looking after)
Personally I could not care if the tax rate went upto 50% and VAT 25% just as long as I knew the younger generation and OAP's got looked after first (the word "first" being used in an expansive term.
Our government has let this country implode in broad daylight, crippling the banking industry under it powers.
Crikey the money the FCA alone, has fined Barclays over these years is criminal, compared to what Bailey has cost the economy.
On that note I thought I would glance at my current chart, still waiting for re entry lol
GLA
Enough said.
The chance they both took out grain storage units too ! Nice Russian patsy going on there ?
Poland missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian projectile, US officials say
Yes badjob, it was that I had in mind when writing my post, perhaps I should have better described it as 'stealth' tax.
I think there might also be continuing worry about the possibility of some change to the interest paid by BOE on reserves which could dwarf any corporation tax changes. I think it was this rumour which initially knocked the shares back and it would be a popular change if made. Hopefully whatever happens, the additional certainty once we have had the autumn statement will generate a bit more positivity. I am still surprised that bank shares are trading well below their levels when PPI was at its peak.
Regarding a surcharge/windfall tax on banks this week...banks are already subject to a windfall tax of 8%. The issue is that corporation tax is rising to 25% and this would make the basic tax paid by the likes of Barclays up to 33% (plus there are other taxes to factor in). The plan was to reduce the surcharge to 3% but there was some speculation that it would only be cut to 5%. According to leaks/rumours this won't happen, but who knows...
Since I last posted, it has gone as I predicted and I sold a tranche on last weeks highs and am waiting for an opportunity to buy back. I'll stick my neck out further. I presume the cautious lull we are now experiencing, is down to tomorrows inflation report and Thursday's Autumn statement. I think this might see another 3-5p come off the current SP of £1.56 before the Autumn statement is delivered. Whilst I think there will be an initial bouncing around upon delivery of the Autumn statement, I don't think there will be a reference in it, to a windfall tax on banks and therefore by early next week I believe the Barcs SP will react favourably to the Autumn statement and I am hoping the SP will rise to break the £1.60 mark, with some initial 'bouncing off' at £1.59. So looking to buy back in at around £1.53 before then. Of course and as usual, this could all blow up in my face.
Good Morning MrA
Trusting this day finds you well, despite our haze / blanket of fog, un like Malta, nice choice for a break.
Yes a destination I used to drive down to a few times a year, then fly back, friends have a few interests on Tanks Street, Birzebbuga.
Don't be too concerned about the cut backs, everyone's doing the same atm, CIB arms are chopping staff, as per.
Having closed (temp) my last position before T due to the lack of momentum. Which I can only put down to Hunt moving forward to the 17th. Looking to place it again once I get the right signals, more left in the tank with that.
Either way Im just off to huff & puff at some tenants, it's amazing how so many people "know their rights," whilst trying to live rent free for over a year !
On one hand we have the government making it hard as possible to evict selfish tenants (despite I do help the decent ones out) then on the other, the government thinks that just because tax payers money bailed out the banks, Barclays also owes the treasury that same favour, well think again !
How is anyone supposed to make an honest profit without just throwing money at the HMRC all the time ?
Just hoping that Hunt "By name," does not cause too much projected damage this week, for all our sakes.
GLA
An update on headcount reduction in one part of the bank.
Regards MrA
https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/2022/11/barclays-cutting-juniors
Deutsche set a target price of 230 GBX for the company, which when compared to the Barclays PLC share price of 154 GBX at opening today (09/11/2022) indicates a potential upside of 32.9%. Trading has ranged between 132 (52 week low) and 220 (52 week high) with an average of 41,896,067 shares exchanging hands daily. The market capitalisation at the time of writing is £24,274,174,377
Ho-de-Ho!
Good Evening MrWolf, I hope all is well my friend? I had a wonderful cheap, warm week in Malta. 22c in the shade in November! I’d recommend it to anyone, if you have the funds and the time. Good to see you are on top form. Thanks, for your entertaining updates.I’ll start searching the net for some Barclays news now.
Have a great weekend. Mr A
PIng pong ding
Mr A, do hope you had a nice week away . . . sharing my inept train of thought I just closed out the latest prey.
Originally I was hoping to T of 170, though considering the week ahead, it seemed the sensible option, still its enough for Mrs W to scurry down to Aldi and grab a deal on some frozen lamb chops lol
Eastern Investor . . . loving the optimism "Barcs not messing up for at least 12 months" we can only live in hope lol
JayK . . . The writing was on the wall for the crypto exchanges, they can not survive in a positive rate environment. Lot of people left upset finding out the King wasn't actually in designer clothes lol
Though ole Fat Boy does keep hinting and pushing for the digital £, not if but when.
Best of luck with the landscaping, always best to leave that to the professionals.
Especially at our den . . . As I told the police officers, it was a simple misunderstanding. Mrs W clearly said to me that she wanted "Decking on the patio"
Rookie1 . . . Fundamentals and common sense went out the window with all the QE, lot of headwind very soon, though we all need to consider the overall picture, funds are already (not the ole school x3 months ahead) working on the basis of x6. Most are just waiting for the tanker to reverse its course.
Hence the happy clappers went risk on yesterday over the pond.
Bloggins . . . Typed with sincerity. If you can give a little and make a few adjustments for any bad grammatical errors lol, why not join this board. Sure you will find everyone on here are decent folk, welcome any constructive input always appreciated. Banter always appreciated.
GLA
@MrWolf, nice to hear you had a good day! FTX, what a mess thats been, soon as binance announced we can't save it BTC tanked. I stay away from Crypto, since I sold my holding in BTC / XRP a while back. I said a while ago I think Crypto is dead, its an unrelated mess. Who knows what the future holds, digital would happen at some point you'd think. Right I best go look at some garden slabs as the garden is being landscaped, great fun NOT. I much prefer staring at charts!