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looking like push up to 1.90 next week
Nice one Wayzgoose. I'm still long, not actively trading Barclays now but am invested for the longer term, and I like this board, the only people that listen to my ramblings lol.
The US is still low, if its breaks 404 resistance then one would think the FTSE will contiune to climb. Markets are enjoying lower inflation, lower interest rate rises and some stability. Inflation will contiune to drop most likely too. Maybe just maybe this is the start of a bull market. I guess we can wait and see.
You’ve done well there.
I agree, sold 20,000 at 280.5 just after 4pm. Feel there will be a pull back in next couple of days. Risky as can see this going a lot higher in next few months.
Evening MrWolf, Mr A and everyone.
Its Friday night, our guests have left and Im back at looking at charts.......rock and roll!
US Bank earnings were a mixed bag but on the whole most bank stocks dropped. A quick summary here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhfWgVjldBI
SPY opened a big gap down but filled and closed above its 200MA. With the FTSE 50 points away from the all time high one has to start thinking is that going to be solid resistance. In Pre Market for the US the FTSE was falling because of the low opening of the US but as that started rising it sent the FTSE back up. Barclays mirror'd this action.
We will have to see what Barclays results are, I should be optimistic but I'm largely pessimistic. I trade what I see, but I feel like this bumper of a rise just might not last long. Anyhow, for now its bullish, but its wise to be cautious in my opinion.
Morning Mr A and all
As per the obvious, we're heading into our bezzie mate (200 r'ma) between 180 /182.
Due to Barcs looking so damn peachy atm im not supporting the chancellor with more S.D so it makes far more sense to hedge at these levels of profit.
Once we clear 182, the next set of lights are 219/220 and dare I say 240 without wetting myself lol.
Above 220 is looking like a text book bull flag, which waves right in at 250/270.
If Barclays management can keep a steady course without twatting any icebergs (Simple ******ed mistakes, scandals) holding above 220 opens up a traditional [Cup and Handle formation] into play with a tree in front of a Bingo callers "Clickety-click" . . . Can't help thinking how many times we have been in the same position, only to be let down by scandal after scandal !
Probably the reason half us egits bought into Barcs in the first place, they always look to good to be true.
Just heading out the door, have a wonderful weekend & GLA
For me, as previously mentioned, the Share Price needs to close ABOVE 172p for 4/5 sessions to convince me that another leg-up is likely.
Fri 6th Jan 23 Closed at 172.10p = Session 1 ABOVE. Just
Mon 9th Jan 23 Closed at 172.62p = Session 2 ABOVE.A higher fine margin
Tue 10th Jan 23 Closed at 171.60p = Session 3 BELOW. Circa a full penny drop
Wed 11th Jan 23 Closed at 173.54p = Session 4 ABOVE. A good 1.54p higher
Thu 12th Jan 23 Closed at 177.08p = Session 5 ABOVE. A super 5.08p higher
Mission accomplished. 4 out of 5 sessions finished above 172p
Regards MrA
Barclays is joining forces with an insolvency specialist to try to recover millions of pounds of misappropriated loans advanced under the UK government’s Covid-19 bounceback scheme.
The bank is among the lenders that provided loans of up to £50,000 to small companies at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, which were guaranteed by the government.
About £46bn was given to companies with only minimal eligibility checks to encourage banks to lend quickly. The loan scheme has attracted controversy as official estimates suggest UK taxpayers now face losses of more than £1bn from fraudsters who exploited the programme.
Barclays, the largest bank lender in the bounceback loan scheme, advancing £10.8bn, has joined forces with Manolete Partners, an insolvency litigation financing company.
The pilot scheme to recover the money, which runs until June 2023 and is under supervision from the British Business Bank, covers more than 100 companies that have defaulted on bounceback loans. The project is being closely watched by other high street banks.
Steven Cooklin, chief executive of Manolete, said other banks needed to start taking action. “The longer they wait to engage with us the more likely that the target directors will have dissipated the bounceback loan monies and the less we can therefore return to the taxpayer,” he said.
Cooklin added that in practice many directors who faced the threat of legal proceedings against them personally would usually opt to settle rather than face court action — and in certain cases the bounceback loan money did not even appear to have been spent.
“In some cases loans went out of business accounts into personal accounts. There seem to be a lot of directors who have tucked the money away and think if someone comes knocking on the door I’ll give it back,” he said.
Through the scheme, Barclays would issue a winding up petition against non paying companies, which would then be put into compulsory liquidation administered by the official receiver.
The official receiver would continue to act as liquidator or appoint a large insolvency practitioner to administer the company liquidation — after which Manolete would buy the right to pursue directors of the insolvent company through the courts. When money is recovered from directors, Manolete would receive its costs back and split the remainder with Barclays.
Barclays said: “We have an active programme to investigate fraud and we are working closely with the BBB [British Business Bank] and other government agencies to ensure that we are following proportionate recovery action.
“We utilise debt collection agencies and use our rights as lender to take civil enforcement action. Where appropriate, we inform law enforcement agencies about borrowers where we suspect criminal wrongdoing.”
The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “The government is cracking down on fraud in the bounceback loan scheme — working with lenders, law enforcement,
UBS continued to have a positive view of the UK banks with Lloyds, Barclays and NatWest all attracting ‘buy’ ratings with the broker seeing upside of 46%, 53% and 20% respectively.
JayK "the books are so boring but extremely valuable" My sentiment exactly .
Though I see trading a bit like driving a car. How many times have you driven a journey and thought 'If I was on my test I would have failed badly' well thats why even I pick up the odd book every now and then.
Though sometimes it helps avoid a conversation with Mrs Wolf wanting to discus blah, blah.
In fact the 2 main reasons why Mrs Wolf and I sat in front of a wildlife councillor a few years back was the fact she claimed:
1. That I did not listen to her.
2. & some other stuff she was rattling on about ?
Anyhow J' on a genuine note, must dash im getting mobbed this end.
BOL
Hi JayK , it appears your post landed smack in the middle of a screen refresh and separated my reasons for why Bailey has been a narcissistic, inept twat these past years and should be sacked.
. . . Though back on current track, on paper it looks good today . . . but so does a Hyundai warranty lol.
Our Barcs are looking great for day trading atm too, L&S in this channel.
Trust you are making profits, as the saying goes "Make hay while the sun shines"
Regards W'
. . . . was the word "GREGGS ."
Really good figures from the US across the board, including Jobless Claims. With commodities falling, interest rate rises slowing, this could be positive on a wider scale. UK news tomorrow dependent, but a close over 175 here would be good.
Hi JayK , yep as per the trusted '200' always returns a quick short or re-buy opportunity.
Hey, hey Mr A' trust this day finds you well and profitable too.
As not to forget Warsaw contributing also, "hi" . . . in agreement with you, just not on the interest hikes though.
Cut n paste's from . . .
14.07.2021 "The real the concern atm is the CPI spiking, food and fuel costs and could double the BoEs
'S target within months .
Where as anyone with half a brain "apart from the Mr Bailey and his team" once we had the import c& shipping costs from China launching from an ave £2k to £16k and still getting out bid whilst loading at the hubs ! . . . but some how Bailey and his crew , even the Feds reassured everyone and preferred to use 'transient' as a more appropriate explanation.
Which leaves most analysts second guessing what they will do when it dawns on them that they have only been fuelling the fire !
Whilst the Feds still insist the economy still needs $120b a month, which is over 1.4T per year, more than all the ECB Q.E plus the BoJ combined !
They can not properly address inflation until they get the jobs figures under control.
Just look what affect it is having on the "Holy Grail of equity markets" The T Note, the current Cape at 40 (Well above bubble territory)
They have backed themselves into a dangerous position and really have no real choice but to hope the economy sorts itself out.
This is why equity markets and bonds have been affected the past 48 hrs and when the 'Big Boys' release blow out results like yesterday . . . only to watch them drop in sp.
So all bank related stocks will linger until the equity and bond markets settle and ease of some what."
04.02.2022 "Think that jobs data got them a little too excited, Nas took a dive and their real 30yr yeild went above zero for a 1st in a while.
It stuck the 10 yr Note up and above 1.90% think it was a faster reaction than most anticipated. Fed will have no choice now but move faster and more aggressively."
17.05.2022 Re - Bailey a twat. "Only our government can be blamed for this mess, wasting billions on (covid contracts for mates) dropping far too much money in the wrong part of the economy, just after so much QE had been flooded in.
Sitting back and watching a 0.25% rate . . . ffs a 12 year old child would know what the outcome would be.
Bailey can not hide behind tomorrows inflation print, if it is what most of us expect, also factor that Risky wants to step in !
When it was Risky that just poured fuel over the simmering fire these past years .
Bailey should have had the elbow, way back when he proudly nodded off while the BoE board was discussing our countries predicament.
Either way , this all goes down one road from now on . . . a more aggressive rate"
. . . Personally as I am old in the tooth, having seen idiots like Bailey's kind before . . . the writing has always been on the wall (In bold large font lol) Though all Bailey could read
It's hard to compare US banks with British banks - they have a different model with banks focused on retail banking only and others just do corporate banking, while our banks freely do a mix of both.
My thinking though is that earnings for US banks will be down while money put aside for bad debts will be higher, but a lot of that will be priced in or at least expected, it's just the details we need to worry about here. And remember, higher interest rates = higher net interest margins. Most banks will be coining it in on NIM - and to an extent this is unexpected profit, no one saw interest rates spike this high.
The fall in share prices (on both sides of the Atlantic) has made P/E ratios more realistic and in this febrile environment companies that pay dividends are a more attractive investment. Look also at the tech sector - especially companies on high P/E ratios, across the board they had a bad year. There's a news story out that Elon Musk's personal wealth, in paper terms anyway, decreased by about US$180bn over the last year, remember that next time you stub your toe.
The banking sector always trades on much more realistic yields and with dividends should be seen as a relatively safe bet for investors. That said expect some turbulence, there always is. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and BlackRock are posting their numbers before Wall Street opens, so keep an eye on the news early afternoon our time.
Morning JayK (and all),
Thanks for the CPI forecast. American Banks reporting season starts on Friday. Typically, but not a guaranteed precursor of what is to come. Having read last night that all US Banks Profits have been forecasted to be reduced downwards by the professionals, does this mean the game of we reduced by 20% but they only fell by 15% so conversely the US Bank share goes up? I guess time will make things clearer. A decent start up this morning albeit a long way to go. Let’s see what the CPI over the pond is returned at?
GLA, Regards MrA
Expectation for CPI is 6.5% so it will be interesting to see what happens. Across the Eurozone CPI has dropped so I think It should for the US. The US opened with a GAP up, it tested some of the GAP but then resumed upwards, which was a show of strength. The 200MA is approaching and we've seen a few time rejection. Also US has a down trendline from Jan 21 coming in at 403 ish. Roll on tomorrow. I'm still extremely surprised the FTSE is so close to an all time high. Maybe the year of the bear is coming to an end, it just doesn't feel like it yet. I agree with your sentiment, I'd like to see a few closes above and extend past 175. ATB!
No problem, I think there always someone out there who knows more than you, so its always good to listen! I shall take a look at that book for sure. The last one I read was TA of Financial Markets by John J Murphy, and Trading in the Zone, the books are so boring but extremely valuable. I remember reading Schwager on futures on the beach in Dubai a few years ago, the amount of nodded of was unreal, late nights didn't help ha! I mentioned on here I think end of September that I was developing a Intra day strategy to be used to trade the FTSE only, as I was trading US stocks on an Intra day level. I had to take November and December off but I had 3 months of FTSE trades at 78% win rate. Now I am back to it and just getting back into the swing of things, I find reading price action something that almost needs time to learn and understand and you get a feel for the market. I have set rules, and a set strategy, although it requires me to decide so I'm not ready for automation yet. One thing I do have a different take on is risk and reward, I do not use a physical stop, mostly mental and it depends on what the price action is doing to tell me I got it wrong. If the trade meet all my criteria then I'd take a larger position, if only 2 out of the 3 then smaller etc. I learn't this when trading with professionals in the US, it was completely different to what everyone says but It makes sense and seems to work, however intra day you need to so fast on entry and exit, you cannot hesitate and that takes a bit of time to get into, sometimes you scalp. I've had 1 big loss in stocks, when a green energy company went bust, about 12 years ago, remember it well! I had the right Idea, just the wrong company! All the best. J
Very Good MrWolf… enjoyed that one!
Good Luck My Friend.
Regards MrA
JayK… thanks for that. Ha, ha.
Regards MrA
For me, as previously mentioned, the Share Price needs to close ABOVE 172p for 4/5 sessions to convince me that another leg-up is likely.
Friday 6th Jan 23 Closed at 172.10p = Session 1 ABOVE…Just
Monday 9th Jan 23 Closed at 172.62p = Session 2 ABOVE…A higher fine margin
Tuesday 10th Jan 23 Closed at 171.60p = Session 3 BELOW…Circa a full penny drop
Wednesday 11th Jan 23 Closed at 173.54p = Session 4 ABOVE…A good 1.54p higher value
Tomorrow is the day (in my mind) that the short term direction of travel for this share will be confirmed subject to the reaction of the December 22 US CPI (inflation) figures. Last recorded at 7.1% a reduction is what is required, the bigger the better.
All IMHO please MYOC and GLA.
Regards MrA
Hi JayK
Thank you for the compliment, not necessary but appreciated.
LSE get really bent out of shape, hence they block out esnail links for that very purpose.
Years it was used as a "heads up" resulting in loads getting chopped out.
Just pop in every when Ive got something that needs nursing along, im afraid my email is the last thing I check and far to time consuming lol.
If your trades are making profit, you are doing it right.
Something I have learnt is that not one person trades the same, thats why they use bots and algos now.
Its the emotion / nerve, not knowledge or age, that lets a good position run profit.
Risk and reward is the key, its pointless to trade without R&R factored in, once its up and away T, with a nursed SL.
If I may recommend a well seasoned book, FOREX Patterns & Probabilities / Ed Ponsi
Certainly do not see myself as one to give advice, just to share experience of what does or does not work.
For which I still take losses, some heavy ones in fact, crikey Ive blown up at least 3 profitable accounts in my past lol
The only people I know who make constant income from trading are the brokers.
You may have heard this before "Its like trying to pick up pennies in front of bulldozers"
Regards W'
Good Arvo one and all . . . off topic humour as per'
Sorry I do not attach links ect; though if you or anyone else has a dull moment and in need of a proper "Ole school" belly laugh .
Just YOU TUBE "Ray Winstone tells legendary joke!"
Regards W'
Oh email addresses get redacted here. Well its at yahoo dot com lol
Hi Mr Wolf, your advice and comments are always most welcome and a good read, you seem to have been in the game way longer than me and much more experienced. I do look a the FTSE as primary focus whilst Investing in stocks, I used to be stock's focused. Thank you for the tip, its much appreciated. I am a lone ranger on this, this board is the only one I use to talk to other humans about stocks / trading. Would you be able to maybe drop me an email at chartaddiction********** so I could pick your brains and maybe share my system too if it has any value for you. Cheers