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@Panthrax - i got in a bit late and fumbled actually, saw the price drop on the Friday and thought about it all weekend, On the Monday i bit the bullet at around 57p if i remember rightly, price rose to a £1 by lunch time, was crazy, i sold but bought back to soon as it dropped again even lower in the March of 2009
January 23rd 2009 Barclays closed at 47.3p but intraday traded as low as 43p.
They also traded at 43p intraday on the 21st of January 2009 but closed above 60p.
Apart from those two days they traded as low as 50.81p on March 9th 2009 but closed 56.72p.
10 days later they were over a pound.
If you bought at 50p then you bought at the bottom and couldn't have timed it better. I think the lowest Barclays have ever been was 49p and it was brief.
Oh, I completely agree. 2020 was a good year for me in the markets. My first (and to date only) 10 bagger, a couple of three-baggers and a number of 15%-30% plus quick wins too. Totally agree also that the US market is frothy, certainly when compared with the UK markets. I also take the point about the 100 versus 250. Volatility IMO is stimulating (but I accept that might be a fault in my own brain!) Certainly not advocating anyone buy or sell anything on my suggestion. I am simply of the opinion that while history may not repeat itself, it sure does rhyme.
OK - cards on the table - so I can be justifiably mocked when I am proved wrong....based on the long term US charts, I can see an almighty crash happening at some point. If it happens, it will take all the other main indices down with it. If it happens, it may, or may not, take a decade to recover, but I would still ladder in to certain names at that point and over the following years. Trust me when I say I do not want to be right about this; I will make far more money if I am wrong, but to discount such a possible scenario is not wise IMO.
@Angerz - this has the feel of an early bull run, spring shoots, commodities sector is usually the first to start it and as i said to you before xmas invest in GOLD, ive have a large holding in POLY metal and that is up over 50% since just before xmas, im seeing many signals that a bull run its about to start... is this a fake out without China coming back from covid?
@DB - i wasnt comparing price specifically, only momentum and how main market bottoms present themselves, is history going to repeat itself?
@LWHL - big money to be made when market is so volitile, thing is if you wait for the signal to buy your already behind the curve, its also worth noting the amount of money that has already been taken out of the financial system via crypto and BTC drop, i cant see the market sustaining and another huge drop after covid, anything of that magnitude again in such short time could collapse the whole market. Im cautious as i know how history likes to repeat itself but i am also of the mind that we have already seen bottom at 130 area, if in doubt im already in so ile just hold for now...
DB2014: You could be right. Maybe this time will be different. GLA.
I believe that the bottom will be in when everyone is saying that it is all over, panic is widespread and people are literally disgusted with the thought of the stock market. Similar to sentiment back then, Newdealz. We are still seeing buy the dip mentality IMO. Don't get me wrong - I am going against my own instinct here, which is to keep buying, not trimming and outright position closures. I still have a few positions open, but most of them I have trimmed recently. Smarter people than me cannot time the market well, so I am under no illusions as to my own capabilities. I just want to be in a position where I have plenty of dry powder should these fears be justified. And then, if it does, start buying/repurchasing at oversold levels...when it feels least sensible and comfortable to do so :)
Guys keeping this simple - comparing past performance is a mistake. This SP is appreciating because the bank has increased margins on interest rates and the expectation is that provisioning will not be detrimental. It is a financial
landscape that has not existed for many years now. Don’t sell!
@LWHL - agreed, i bought Barc in Jan 2009 financial crisis, thinking it had bottomed filled my boots at 50p only to see it go lower in March 2009, conicidently we though we had had bottom Autumn 2008, is history about to repeat itself?
The technicals (as far as I understand them) suggest this has more road to travel. It was a derisk decision only, based on those concerns I mentioned. Yes, I know they are not 'new' variables, but I cannot help but feel that what we are seeing so far is bordering on euphoria and a hard and fast correction often follows such a trend IMO. But I am often wrong and maybe all of H1 will follow the current trend before some reality sets in. Or maybe the whole year will be positive. Anything is possible on the stock market :)
@LWHL - what did you use to make your decision to sell? did you let a tech indicator take you out (i doubt) or just wanted to derisk your profit?
My decision was based on the markets being around ATH's. You would have thought that private and public debt and inflation levels were at record lows, with recent company earnings having posted record highs across the spectrum, to justify this chart action! But I fully accept the markets may have higher to go still and BARC is not expensive now, even with the seeming indifference to the above flashing red lights. Surely you must expect a sensible recalibration at some point?
Maybe I should have just put that instead lol.
Month, Week looking superb, Day / 4hr around the 200ma just looks like another opportunity to me, thats all.
Not having heard, neither read one negative comment referencing Barclays this last quarter.
The ball lands totally on the finals, especially now the larger income related institutional vehicles are looking for steady income. So hopefully that bunch of inept fools may just switch on a enticing neon light.
Of which we will see some flies return and start buzzing around again ?
Lastly, it is refreshing to read everyone else's constructive contribution on here.
Logging off now, so GLA
Good Morning to all contributor's
Maybe using "are the lights changing?" maybe, was not the most sensible header, hopefully a few of you picked up on it as a potential (descriptive) breather / opportunity. No way meant as a turning point at that. Hence using it as a questionable point "Are the ...?" not as bold as "The lights are changing".
Unless someone had some inside information that a pooh-storm was hitting the SP this month I for one, would not be closing any long position (unless to gain back a few % at the 200MA)
Having placed a S this morning @180.30. Looking to add at each opportunity if we see any lunges in to 182+
My sole purpose at this level is just out of greed and just trying to potentially accumulate / add a few more % to what is a very healthy position.
As kindly noted by MaryBr190 "think amber was in the 130s" yes, it certainly was, illuminated in fact lol.
So my strategy still remains focussed on holding, gaining pace towards the finals next month.
Regards W'
Well, I got my target price so have decided to sell up for now. Not BARC-specific, just feel the market is due a correction. Frankly, I am fairly staggered we have not had it already. Equally will not be surprised if the markets continue to rise for a while yet...irrational for longer etc. Good luck to all still holding. This is a terrific chat board, with some excellent posters. I will continue to follow it and the company and hope to get the chance to return again at some point. It may need to be at a higher price of course, but I just feel comfortable taking profits in this climate, rather than a more patient buy and hold strategy. All the best everyone!
Make of this what you will (FTSE). The previous rallies have had 23 to 31 bars, and hit the same resistance area and then dropped substantially with deep retracements. This time we've had a 40 bar from a double bottom with an almost 38% retracement only to go higher and finally break that resistance area which 4 attempts previously failed to break. It looks very different. Its currently at the 61.8% expansion with 78.6% at 8000. This is looking like a bit of possible trend. Why the FTSE, I look at the FTSE primarily, but even with stocks I look at the market first out of habit. GL
https://thumbsnap.com/i/Wa5FwHsj.png
You’re right but to be precise 180.56. Sweating tonight, think it could have been a mistake selling. So many reports from financial commentators saying Barclay undervalued. If it drops tomorrow I’ll be back in!
Nice write up MR A. Looking at the technicals we have to be on the bullish side, with caution. There are no reversal signals at the moment. The one thing bothering me is the FTSE is 50 points away from an all time high. The US just seems so uncertain. I was planning on getting on last night and looking at how many daily bars were part of the last bull rallies which failed, but baby furniture took over! Will do tonight. Barclays volume hasn't been anything out of the ordinary. Will have to keep an eye on FTSE and SPY first, if these turn the tides they will drag BARC down, unless BARC has big volume pushing it up which i don't see. Its difficult to trade when you start guessing tops or think one is near. Had a tough week, its been a while since I've had a loosing day, i actually can't remember the last, and thats cause I've started thinking "this could be the top"!
think amber was in the 130s
@MrA - thanks for your in depth TA, yes its the most important thing to get into the feel and rhythm of each stock as they have price window they like to oscillate in, like yourself been in here many years. Appreciate the dates, got a nice little run up to exdivi in March by looks of it, watching cautiously though as March is the favorite month for market bottoms! Yopu knbow what they say history likes to repeat itself!
ATB
I am pleased with the recovery and hope for 1.90 by results day at the least. That said, this time last year or so we were 2.17p. That is some 37p ahead of where we are now and we are in a much stronger position. What we need now is a commitment to greater dividends now that savings rates of 4% can be achieved for cash. We also need to avoid an iceberg to use Mr Wolf's description of the conduct of the bank.
Wayzgoose, I assume you meant 180.5p rather than 280.5p?
That said, no such thing as a bad profit.
Well Done and Good Luck my Friend. Regards, MrA
Apologies, I meant to post this earlier in the week.
Some Key Calendar Dates…
…that inevitably will affect the Stock Markets. Not an exhaustive list, but key dates nonetheless.
Thu 12 Jan 23 US Inflation Figures (for Dec 22)
Wed 18 Jan 23 UK Inflation Figures (for Dec 22)
Wed 18 Jan 23 EU Inflation Figures (for Dec 22)
Wed 1 Feb 23 US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Announcement
Thu 2 Feb 23 UK Bank of England (BOE) Base Rate Announcement
Thu 2 Feb 23 European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Announcement
Tue 14 Feb 23 US Inflation Figures (for Jan 23)
Tue 15 Feb 23 UK Inflation Figures (for Jan 23)
Wed 15 Feb 23 Barclays Full Year/Q4 Results
Wed 23 Feb 23 EU Inflation Figures (for Jan 23)
Regards, MrA
Good Morning Posters Old and New, Mr Wolf, JayK, et al,
What a great start to the year! Friday 13th proving NOT to be unlucky for the Barclays share price.
My ‘light touch’ charting in addition to my guesstimate and pure good luck of indicating the share price could reach180p. Albeit, to arrive the following day after the full year results of Wed 15th Feb 23 appears to have arrived somewhat early! A classic case of premature elation? Although entertained, no Carry-on double entendres necessarily required at this juncture… ha,ha,ha.
Looking at the trend, assuming 180p can now be held and not broken for another 4/5 sessions, a.k.a the Amber Lights that MrWolf refers to, then indicates to me a potential more positive inching forward of territory to the next ‘round price’ hurdle of £1.90. JayK also mentions the landscape is not looking particularly healthy at the moment and that the tide can change very quickly - agreed. That said, short term I still see forward movement. I historically work in 10p brackets, no science as such just personal, historical and emotional behaviours I’ve seen with this share for many, many years.
The share worked really hard on Friday to breach and hold above 180p. Doing the hokey-cokey and dancing round it for some considerable time. Normally, I would expect at these ‘round price’ milestones, and support the theory that a lot of retail investor sell/buy limit orders are triggered. Hence the constant knocking on the door and then eventual breakthrough once all orders have been cleared. I’m sure I remember David Buik talking about this ‘predictable behaviour’ on LBC some years ago?
Looking at (to me) some (not all) Key Financial Calendar events to come in the next 4 weeks and prior to results day, if you were to make your own binary judgement calls on each event and whether you believe they will have a positive/negative effect on the Barclays Share Price short term, this may help on your call whether to hold, fold or simply walk away? Apologies for that clumsy long paragraph.
For me, with finger always close to the ejector seat button, I will continue to monitor and see how things pan out next week. But my gut feel tells me there may be, even with some profit taking and slowing of momentum, a further upward trajectory to come post UK CPI announcement on Wednesday.
I stress, these views form my unfounded, amateurish outlook and opinion are do NOT act as any form of guidance whatsoever. Please make your own choices and undertake your own research.
Good Luck All. Regards, MrA