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Scardey, thanks for taking the time to post back a thoughtful rebuttal of my er... rebuttal... :0)
I guess the first thing is, I can't say (and nor can you), if my or any posts here, influence anybody. We have to make assumptions. Your reasoned view is that it does, even if its in a small way. (Lets assume I agree based on some posts get recs which is an indication of agreement), my point is its makes no difference to the SP so ultimately, as that's all we care about, these posts of all stripes, have no influence.
I'm not an expert in the the psychological triggers of advertising, but we are maybe looking at the same thing differently.
You use "Flight or Fight" as a reaction to "negative posts" I prefer "Fear and Greed". I would suggest your basis is a much more fundamental reaction to actual physical, potential harm and much more basic where my mine is not. (You can't be fearful of losing money unless you have money, however it was obtained, which suggests for most its not as a basic reaction as you are suggesting. In other words its not life and death but it is important).
Many of my posts have reiterated this point. Don't get emotional, go into every trade (even if its long term buy and hold), with some sort of plan, (ie when to buy and when to sell), don't over commit funds, only bet what you can afford, comfortably, to lose).
Apply those basic oft repeated rules and almost all the angst of any shareholding is removed whatever system is employed.
And that's important because, someone might read a more (I am going to use your word), negative post or scenario, and if they have obeyed the "rules" they can be rationally objective about the comments and decide if they have merit or not. If they are over committed then the emotional reaction will be immediately to denounce the post and to get others validation to support their view, because failure would emotionally and also financially, be harmful.
However, I can't know but I think some or maybe many here are over committed and although COULD afford to lose their stake (or a large %, say 50%) in the sense it would not ruin their lives, would still be extremely painful.
Most of my posts are not written in a negative way actually, simply not as enthusiastic as the general concensus here and that triggers the (what I think) are over-the-top reactions to them. You will , no doubt have your personal favourite's of mine that you vehemently disagreed with, but I think my theme over the last 6 months has largely been, its going to be longer than the majority here think, before we get a test out, and its going to be at reduced numbers due to improvements in treatments and the overall length of time mass testing will be required is not years and years etc.
My "comfort" caveats have always been, quite rationally, if there is new info that alters my view then I will change it. Ie, a variant evades vaccine efficacy, or a new strain that is more harmful for instance.
Wyn, there was a difference of 120k shares bought and sold on Friday. There was a 1.33% drop. There are investors on here who have more than that amount of shares. Of course this bb can have a negative or positive effect on the share price. There been 5% plus swings on here with half a million shares difference either way.There some investors on here have stated that they hold more than that. So, one of your more negative post if plausible enough to spook one or 2 of said investors CAN have an effect on the sp. Simple. No arguing. Accept it.
No Gr33, I wont "accept it" for a variety of reasons:
You have no idea what other sales go on in the background between brokers and larger share holders that are not listed. When a shareholder is selling down the sells have to be matched by buys, we have no way of knowing, as is reported here frequently " my buy is showing as a sell!" what in actuality is going on. Also Large selling is reported after the event.
And secondly, as there are way more positive posts here than "negative", by your logic the SP can only be above where it "should" be. So in fact its a falsely positive valuation right now?
My view is that all info is out there in the SP right now, all most do here on this BB is regurgitate other professionals thoughts and links, and that is already reflected in the SP.
It really is fanciful beyond measure, given the pelters I take now, on almost anything I post, that anybody here takes the blind bit of notice of what I think. (I could forecast tomorrow its going to rain and because its in the summer I am just being negative!) It is equally absurd to think even in your own words, 1or 2 posters on this board would sell based on my view so big a holding that it would force down the market cap of a £700m listed bio Pharma!
( However, I guess if its me, then you have given up on the idea that it might be MM's playing around with the SP? Or maybe not, sometimes when the SP goes down it is the MM's, or sometimes it is me, (don't know which, but lets carry on pretending we can see cause and effect here), what can be ruled out it out apparently, is actual news that disappoints the market, or people for whatever reason selling to take profits or re-invest somewhere else or whatever. (Now do you see how ridiculous your idea reads?)
I always ask people who post unsubstantiated stuff like this, how do you know? Who has either publically on this forum, or privately to you, has said "That Wyn bloke... I'm not sure anymore, I'm selling...."?
None, to save you going through a million posts.
And even if you are right (and I don't believe you are), if anybody makes a decision based on a stranger's remark & thoughts on a BB, has to own their decision and suffer whatever consequences come from it.
And lastly, what if in your words"... one of your more negative post if plausible..." turns out to be correct? what then?
The assumption being, presumably behind your post (and others) is that I am always negative (which I am not) to deliberately force down the SP with wrong or misleading info or ideas. your presumptions is somewhat buggered if I turn out to be right, isn't it?
Thought you'd green boxed him Will?
No Wyn, I'm not suggesting that you are always negative buddy. Bit you are more negative than positive. I guess that suggests you are either in or out. You have said that you trade. I have no problem with that either. I'm not good enough to trade but admire others that can make it work for them. I also don't buy into mm manipulation. I'm sure there are some nefarious goings on behind the scenes on times but every bb claims that they are being manipulated. Very very doubtful imo. What I am stating is that if you look at most trading days the margin between buys and sells isn't large at all. So when a very plausible negative post is read and believed by a few on here then us, I truly believe posts on here have an effect. You are right in saying that some of your posts turn out to be true. No denying it. The rumour of the share buy last year is a prime example. It was posted on here and within minutes we had seen a 10% drop and it carried on dropping until the RNS came out and proved the rumour correct. Also can be said for positive posts of conjecture. It does go both ways. Finally, I'm not attacking you per se but was answering to the thread on which you commented buddy saying that no post could have an effect on the sp. I totally disagree. That's all in my opinion but I believe it to be fact. I enjoy your posts because they make me think a lot harder about things and then do more research just to clarify my own thoughts over again. So thank you. Some others on here I have filtered because the are so obvious. There are a lot of negative and user positive posts on this board and sometimes when you post in between them then you get caught in the crossfire. Human nature is a funny old thing. Anyway, enough of my not so eloquent waffling. Have a good day Wyn and all. Tomorrow will be interesting one way or another
Will
Why did I filter those people ages ago ?
Seriously why someone as dumb as me filter those peoples ages ago?
I know why!!!