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I am starting to give up on this , been waiting a long time, its less than 1/2 its intrinsic value and will not move much!
anyone any info or outlooks that will make me hold on?
RNS and there it is :) should see a nice % up today!
The only interesting thing is house broker still forrcasting positive eps today. But then again it is a house broker with 100pct buys.
And purchase rights are majority of stock price.
These guys have to let us know how they will exercise the options otherwise they are worthless and npv is alot lower than stated at 280p
Worthless ? dont think so!
Well I have to sell out, its wasting to much time and I have uncertainty ahead with this new ‘Pirola’ and the hospitalisations, gl I bet it gos up!
I put in lots of questions, waiting to hear the answers to decide.
If they can explain they have funding for exercising purchase rights and give details on exercise dates i will hold. Otherwise i will rethink.
13.5 million shares traded today, 20% of AVAP...@ 79p (vs 98-100 at time).
Oceanwood had 16.1m, per stockopedia.
A quick search brought up this :
hxxps://www.pionline.com/hedge-funds/oceanwoods-deputy-cio-start-own-firm-hedge-fund-shutters.
Seems it's closing down, and may be in a hurry....
..."Oceanwood Capital Management's Deputy CIO Julian Garcia Woods is striking out on his own, and the hedge fund he co-managed with founder Christopher Gate is shutting down.
Mr. Woods, who has been at Oceanwood since 2007, is taking a team from the firm and plans to launch CoreLane Capital Management early next year, according to Andrew Baker, head of business development at the London-based company. Oceanwood will return capital to investors while Mr. Gate, 59, is retiring, he said...."
Somebody got a bargain.
ATB
Sometimes financial markets are skewed for rich.
They get access to best ipo's that fly on day 1 30pct.
Also get block holdings at stupid prices. Everyone would double up at that price :).
Glad to see in presentation options maturity date effevtively get rolled.
I value derivatives for a living and the option model they use does not have that feature. So i feel much better knowing they have time to use them.
Also having a purchase price linked to inflation with cap is great. Prices of planes will rise with inflation but our purchase price does not.
Nice trade. Or maybe the bank that was their prime broker took control.
Anyway they saw good value
Just having a look at this again .. I sold out and sort of wish I did not! … seems to be on a rise again!
I was in same situation.
My main worry was that 1/3 of nav was purchase rights. The company explained these rights ( or options) do not really have an expiration date, they mutually role the dates. They also said they can purchase below market value because purchase price in option is has a cap. So as inflation goes up. Aircraft goes up but purchase price less.
Nothing in detail given but it did make me have some more comfort on nav
I think I may buy back in!
Also worth remembering that Avation had negotiated a 'very good' inflation price cap whereby they heavily implied is well within the current inflation environment making the rights more valuable. Furthermore the Purchase Rights cost no further money to maintain as is. Neither do they need to find any customers for utilising these rights as they can either form a JV or immediately sell the aircraft at delivery (as they have done in the past generating significant profit.
Furthermore they are believed to have the largest number of ATR Purchase Rights than any other lessor.
With constrained ATR production(~30 this year and hopefully rising to 80 in one or two years) the longer they maintain the rights the greater the value.
Nevertheless, apart from the two additional ATR's next year, organic growth of the ATR fleet appears to be muted for the next 18 months or so. Therefore am hopeful some jet narrowbodies will be added to the fleet.
Thanks for your view Carcosa, back in with a few to see!