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Big over reaction here, short term traders leaving as no news on deal..... That's fine. Q1 mostly as expected really. Seems obvious to me EU is one of the offers which needs a bit more time, and all offers waiting on the drilling results and possibility of copper, ATM trying to bring this altogether for the benefit of shareholders. An interview would be good.
Cracking company
What an opportunity to buy in at 3.9p
A no brainer at these prices
Agree, I topped up again this morning.
Operationally all is as expected, they always seem to deliver, but this damned Strategic Process is killing us.
The comms around it have been appalling from the very start. Let's not forget, ATM themselves said in June 2023 - "The entire strategic process is targeted to conclude at the end of September 2023."
There has been no meaningful update as to why it'll be a year late, and why the scope has now changed - that's just no good enough.
I agree that this seems like an overreaction although I can understand why some investors are losing patience
The main disappointment is slow progress on the lithium front, the process to find a partner (now partners) seems to be going on forever but I'm sure there will be news on this soon, maybe before the next quarterly operational update. The second disappointment is higher than expected AISC but that'll come back down through the rest of the year. The margin being seen, even at say $28k aisc, is the best Andrada's seen in 18+ months. And it's even more guaranteed now with ~25% hedged at $33k, although obviously limits the upside slightly if tin prices take off.
I thought this was the best bit of news in this update:
'Further assessment and modelling of the integrated plant has resulted in an increase in the planned petalite production tonnage from 30 000tpa to between 40 000tpa and 50 000tpa.'
Call it an additional 15000tpa petalite at $1500/t, that's an extra $22.5m.
I can understand the fall but 52 weeks lows despite having secured Orion finance deal within that time frame, DBN financing, closed to Namibian bank financing conclusion and very consistent tin operations with improving margins seems excessive to me.
Agree with your balanced view HarChris.
I would like a brief interview by AV just to explain the strategic new process thinking and what has been the main reason no deal came forward after a year.
Investors deserve a little more clarity otherwise sentiment drifts, maybe a bland update, but don't forget there is lots going on and the likelihood of some more good news in the pipeline in the coming months ahead.
The update doesn't signal that a deal is imminent which gives traders the confidence to dump with a view to re-enter a few weeks down the road, that never helps in regards to the sp reaction.
There's a proper company being built here for the future but Anthony is doing an awful job on certain fronts and if it wasn't for the high tin prices the share price would be closer to 3p than 4p - I agree with your sentiments, it's time to hear more from him now.
Agree - AV needs to step up here. Unfortunately too much talk and not enough action..
Top post that Har Chris 👊
Any shareholder who thinks the current communications and strategy aren't working should contact the company to express their views. I have done this several times over recent months, and have again today following yesterdays update.
To be told for 13 months that a Strategic Process is "progressing well", and then to completely change the scope of it with no further information is extremely poor.
To be told for a year that the petalite output from the lithium pilot plant would be sold, and told in Nov 23 that discussions with a ceramics offtake partner were "progressing well" - and then for this update to say there will be no commercial production from the pilot plant until at least after the pre-concentration circuit work is completed next year - again very poor.
To be clear, I'm still a believer in the long term growth story here - obviously, otherwise I wouldn't still be holding and topping up. Operationally, I think they perform great. Communications and Strategy however are currently abysmal.
If you feel likewise let them know :
Financial Public Relations - charles.vivian@tavistock.co.uk
CEO - anthony.viljoen@andradamining.com
Investor Relations - investorrelations@andradamining.com
Head of Investor Relations - Sakhile.ndlovu@andradamining.com
Hi bohercom, out of interest do you ever get a reply?'
I used to get a reply from Investors Relations, and AV had forwarded some of my previous emails internally to get answers - but I've had nothing from them in over 6 months.
Only way I get a response lately is from Charles Vivian - he's very responsive.
Good post and highly recommended.
After Fridays blood boiling I still come back to what the company has got to offer and it huge . You only have to look at the plant and operations and staff they already have . It’s quite a set up , I think over the weekend I’ve convinced myself to buy more at these prices .
I don't have much of a holding but I might build one from this level.
I was taking a look back at the funding to get to this stage, in particular the price of dilutive funding.:
£13m raise at 6p in 2021
£19.8m raised at 5p in 2022
$25m Orion deal - $2.5m shares at 6.39p, $10m cln that converts at 9.45p + warrants at 9.45p, $12.5m tin royalty
With a highly supportive tin price 4p should end up being an incredibly cheap entry if AV can deliver on the enormous potential of ATMs assets and if the lithium price picks back up by the time that side of the business goes live in a few years time. If we get a lithium rns update like has happened most quarters over the past year or so then that'll hopefully kick start the recovery here, especially if we hear more on the increase in planned petalite production from 30000tpa to between 40000tpa and 50000tpa.
Adding at this level should make sense - ATM's hare price has returned -44% since 15/8/23 versus +32% for spot tin (and + 23% for Alphamin, pure tin play). I use that date as it's when the Orion finance package was confirmed - the loan itself was received in November. In the two years prior to this date, ATM had outperformed the tin price by 55% (all in GBP). Coincidence? I think not.
It felt like a sh+t deal for shareholders at the time and it's proven to be one. Friday's weakness was partly down to disappointment on lithium partners and sales, but also due to concerns that ATM won't make the Feb 25 deadline to get production up to 1,600 tons of concentrate pa, to benefit from a royalty discount. If they don't, then it ramps up to above 9% until they do, which is punitive. The estimated date for this to happen has shifted from FY25 to CY25, big difference, carefully concealed.
With the absence of meaningful Li sales in this financial year it seems, it raises the issue of how long the existing funding will last. Hannam don't project a +ve net profit figure until FY27 (so some time in 2028). ATM haven't issued a revised strategy presentation or cash/income forecast for as long as I can remember. No surprise investors are unsure about the next 24 months, massive lack of clarity from the board.
>>> "The estimated date for this to happen has shifted from FY25 to CY25, big difference, carefully concealed."
I hate the way they do this. Referring to the expanded pre-concentration circuit, on 12th March they said “Commissioning of the circuit is planned for Q1 2025.” and then Fridays update said “commissioning commencing in April 2025". "Commencing" - so will it take 5 days or 5 months from April 2025 ?
No explanation, no details, no acknowledgement that it's been delayed by something. It's just changed, and it's as if they hope no-one will notice. Obviously they're not going to communicate every detail of what they do, I wouldn't expect them to, but this is the major expansion project that will (hopefully) transform profitability. More clarity is needed.
It's the same with the "CI2" initiatives they keep referring to in the updates. I've asked them numerous times over the past year what those initiatives are - could they just give us 4 or 5 lines on what the scope of CI2 is and what the timelines are. They just won't tell me for some reason. They keep mentioning it, but won't explain what it is. I thought perhaps I'd missed the details in an RNS or presentation so asked them when I could find details - they ignored my question.
All comes back to the communications again.