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16.8 million revenue....
38% mining margin....
reduced debt by 12.4 million......19% reduction to Dec 23
$3 million net gain on sale of mirabel facility
All looking good and steady .......!!!
people go on about fundamentals in the crypto world where they don't mean jack !!! BTC could be 200k or 10k tomorrow on nothing more than whim , rumor or some one farting in Texas !!! GLA
If there was ever a time to recognise results as backwards looking and therefore not representative of the state of business it’s the quarter before a halving. Especially over a month after that halving has started with no discernible change in BTC price or difficulty.
As for your point about fundamentals not mattering re crypto related stocks that’s certainly true when cashed up, it’s not when you’re soon to need refinancing with no investment case to put forward in what is a very tough market
The 38% mining margin is the problem Spitfire. This indicates direct costs were 62%. Now we have passed the halving, this indicates direct costs could be 120% (ie. losing money to mine). If this is the case then clearly it is a concern.
But this doesn't add up with Galaxy's Q1 (owner of Helios), which claims a cost to mine of $19,500 per bitcoin. Also a big increase in hosting revenue with Argo as the main hoster.
https://investor.galaxy.com/news/news-details/2024/Galaxy-Announces-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx
"Now we have passed the halving, this indicates direct costs could be 120%"
CLSK - that's not quite the case. The 62% was based on average BTC price of under $53k so all else being equal the direct costs are probably around 90% or so now. As I said earlier though this does mean that they are indeed close to the point where it is no longer economic to mine (unless those costs have come down - or BTC goes up).
There may be a short-term trader's case here - but there is no longer term investment case that I can see.
Thanks Hexam - I take it you summed the revenue and divided by BTC mined for the period to get this average price?
That would give an average cost per coin of 32800, or 60+ post halving (adjust a little for block fees which didn't halve)?
Add the operating costs and interest payments near $2mil a month and it's hard to read these as good results.
Yep. And $32,800 is what I got for direct cost per coin.
Full breakdown for ongoing cash costs per coin mined:
Direct: $32,800
Overhead: $9,900
Interest: $7,300
Total Cash: $50,000 per BTC mined
Then there's an additional $21k of non-cash costs (depreciation and share awards).
However you look at it those figures were ok pre-halving but just don't add up post-halving where they all nearly double. They are likely losing about $30k cash for every coin mined at the moment. So six months left at best unless something changes (new funds, much higher BTC or significantly lower costs).
Still, there should be enough cash to make it to the next accounts in April which will bring all this to the fore and spell out the situation in black and white (cash burn will be impossible to deny), in the meantime the average punter will simply buy or sell based on BTC price movements with probably a slightly weight to the downside. And there's where the small headroom is for a potential trade.
So if btc pumps before the interims in August the Argo price will still likely be higher than it is today, despite being so close to the edge now and with any pump almost certainly being followed up by a survival extending placing.
Assume you meant August? Otherwise agree.
For those interested I watched the Imc and q&a and it was 22 mins of my life I won’t get back.
No strategy to get out of this, lots of stupid questions asked such as how Argo are going to get back to growth etc
so why did you watch it and waste your life if your not even invested here ???? you pleb ! go and find something constructive to do instead of keep trying to **** off this company along with your other buddies on here? like i've said before if you dont like argo leave !!!!
@HarCris: I watched the Argo webinar as well; and your summation is disingenuous.
Not in any dismissing the situation Argo is in, according to you, and some here it is in a perennial state of going bust.
They are pursuing the only strategy that is feasible at the moment, - debt/cost reduction, will exploring possible link ups with energy providers. And remaining a small niche, focused operator.
If they were to come out with some 'smart' expansionist plan, that would indeed be worrying.
Yes, they are going to be in trouble if BTC price remains depressed, but then I dare say a lot their more heavily indebted peers will be to.
But the WTFDIK - since I have invested here in the first place.
A I clearly don't posses your financial acumen must mean you are some financial genius, sitting on your yacht parked off a tax haven in the Caribbean.
Redinjun: current argo mgmt. came in after PW destroyed the company. many here have said that the new team have done a decent job, considering the company's predicament. However, why keep paying their salaries if there is likely no future for the company. Based on the real numbers, Argo is basically NOT a "going concern" at the moment. I can only repeat: investors beware!
That's undfair redinjun. For a start we've all said Argo has no future and won't be operating much past the halving... that is still the case. Chippas is looking backwards and focusing on the deleveraging that Argo have managed over the past eighteen month but that was because they had a flagship facility to sell, brand new rigs, a data centre and a few placings. They don't have anything now to sell and they are burning significant cash month on month from this point forward so there isn't any more deleveraging that can be achieved besides the odd small placing they might pull off (although that will be spoken for immediately due to cash burn). The hosting agreements ends at the end of the year and even if they were somehow going still they'll need to start replacing rigs just to maintain the same loss making hash rate.
Chippas did a good job of avoiding broaching the subject of what happens going forward because the bottom line DRAMATICALLY changes now post halving, from ebitda positive at least to steeply negative. But I watched just in case he was going to try to create a narrative that could be sold to the market but there wasn't anything apart from continue with current plan.
No not a financial genius but fairly experienced when it comes to identifying small cap lifestyle companies and that is sadly what Argo has become and the most they can do is extend their survival slightly by issuing shares to naive investors through further placings.
Clskbull, I know you mentioned slnh before and I was looking into them, any idea what's causing the premarket drop ? Can't find anything
Clskbull, looks like it's corrected itself now. Was showing -43%
There's very low volume on Soluna so the price can move around a lot. To be honest I've been disappointed with it, as the share price has gone backwards. I'm still holding them as I think it will eventually come good, but if you're buying I wouldn't recommend buying exclusively - buy a few different companies to mitigate the single company risk.
I'll only put a small amount in when they go a little lower, think they look good for the longer term with very cheap energy and their CEO seems to be well respected
Yeah probably one of the few actually doing something with stranded energy. Watched a recent video with him and agree. Hopefully it gets noticed at some point - suspect it will be a late runner.
Yeah, seen recent and past interviews. Also, CEO from btbt gave him and company praise