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We desperately need a crypto explosion from here over summer
No HPC musings from Riot as yet. I don't know if they'd be suitable or not - Texas being hot and them curtailing a lot, plus track record not great for uptime/storm damage. Presumably all these things could be solved though. Will the poker star gamble or stick with BTC?
Yeah it's the uncertainty keeping BITF down.
Q2 will be dire for hodlers - although the uplift got largely ignored by the markets so the drops might also - but Q2 results won't look good without fasb due to the halving as it is.... Agree a sideways step might be appropriate when August gets closer. Hopefully BTC runs this month and gives a nice opportunity to rebalance.
Hi clsk - still only a small portion of my total holdings but yeah, added a bit to my MIGI position and bought some Mara at $20.50. I'm happy with that for now.
Are any of RIOT's portfolio of MWs suitable for HPC or have they commented if they would look at HPC? I am guessing not, otherwise stock would have pumped.
BITF last thing I want in this environment is for money to be tied up. It is a tempting valuation though and I think might continue to go sideways for abit yet vs peers, which will make it even more tempting.
Q2 results will be interesting aswell, with FASB and the halving. Thinking it might be prudent to flee to non miners during this period, APLD and possibly MSTR and COIN, and hope there is a bloodbath to take advantage of.
Yeah RIOT is a tricky one, it's a terribly run company and they seem to lie to/mislead investors while taking heavy bonuses, and making a mess of BITF takeover attempt. But on the other hand they are heavily shorted, have a strong HODL, a large MW base and great electricity contracts. I've got some as I think they might pop upwards - but might end up dropping them as I've no conviction with them.
BITF definitely undervalued - but no CEO and the ongoing RIOT takeover attempt. If they actioned the poison pill I wouldn't want to be holding them as it would require a sum of money to participate in the placing, and would involve admin/timing burdens that I don't want.
Corz I value as fully diluted - which is around $4bil mcap - so I seem them as undervalued due to the hpc contract but not massively undervalued (could be wrong).
Yes I see the next few months leading into the first rate cut and US elections as a key time, so worth spending time keeping up with announcements - but if I can't outpace wgmi then it hasn't been time well spent!
Yeah the only miners that have really moved YTD are the HPC tickers, bar CLSK. BTBT being the exception because they don't own the infra probably. Seems logical that non HPC miners catch up some when Bitcoin moves but I'm not sure that happens, as the market seems to be pointing to the long term value being the quality of infra and power.
I was looking at possibly Bitfarms next. And Riot. And will return to BTBT as I think they announce more HPC business but think it might go sideways for a couple of weeks at least. Also thinking that Corz CoreWeave deal hasn't been fully priced in yet, with the warrants still up in the air.
Not enough time to look into all miners properly but it is time well spent because of the potential gains on the table, this next 3-4 months.
Yeah $6 would make it about $1.85 bil, which seems about right against Wulf and similar peers. Agree I thought it was overvalued also. Hard to argue that many miners are undervalued just now - there's a few laggards like HIVE, DGHI and BITF - probably HUT also - but the Canadian miners just seem to be this way and always underperform.
The HPC movement has been pivotal to the miners - without it we'd be a lot lower I think.
Yeah looks like Bitfury have been offloading 500k shares per day and now 900k left
https://investors.ciphermining.com/static-files/2bf36dcc-c13d-4cfd-a752-7b86de020962
Was thinking $6 aswell for 25% gain. Always a chance it busts through $6 this time, with selling pressure gone and if bitcoin moves. China is turning liquidity taps on and alot of that money is going to find its way to btc imo. It spent most of this year being 2.5x the valuation of Wulf and Iren, now both are ahead. Always thought it was overvalued then tbf but $1.5b now seems undervalued alittle vs peers.
Are you in any miners now HC?
Agree on Cifr. Choppy stock but has a lot going for it like machine newness + low energy costs + holding btc. Very aggressive expansion plans too, 13EH+ by 2024 end, then targeting 500MW+ of own sites by end of 2025, if they succeed that's a monster in the making.
Going back to this it would be rather helpful to know what the cash position is now - could be anything from about $5m right down to just a couple of $m.
Any further BTC price erosion without a comparable fall in difficulty and Arb might just find cash dwindles to zero even before Q3 is out.
Good to know on BTBT - I'm sure a number of the western mining execs should also be jailed but instead they get hefty bonuses. Quite like the name Golden Bull actually. The new CEO is proving popular just now so I don't think this will impact any more than it has to date. But once I get targets I'll rotate - into what I don't know.
CIFR has been suppressed by Bitfury selling. It appears that the current batch of sales may be near an end (Note 3) which would support a run up soon. I'm thinking a run to $6.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000106299324013238/xslF345X05/form4.xml
Not seen margins on Soluna HPC. They're unique in the space as they do stranded energy - which means it isn't 24/7 power - but they get for a good electricity price - 2.9 cents last update. I would expect 75%ish but margin who knows. Meant to go live in July so hopefully a news release soon.
I'm not holding CLSK just now, but think them and Mara will move roughly in step.
Various miners due short squeezes also. Exciting times, as long as bitcoin starts moving.
Nice sleuthing. Might explain the under valuation vs peers. Good info to know but still think big gains will come in this one over the next 6 months. Risk enhanced though for bad news to drop out of the blue I guess.
Not related to your findings but I moved some into CIFR earlier, based on the chart looking ready to burst and RSI having plenty of room to run, and same logic as BTBT couple of weeks ago, feels due a move. Insiders selling recently is not ideal but it won't be one I'll be holding for long.
CLSK looking very good aswell for a run into the mid 20s. Great day for miners.
On BTBT was able to confirm it was 100% Chinese, used to be called Golden Bull.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710350/000121390020020595/ea125130ex99-1_goldenbull.htm
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/lqvz4b9nt5yv5yjlvfunhq2
It appears they simply rebranded and appointed Western figureheads to board (they had to because a bunch of the Chinese ones were jailed in Shanghai according to a report).
Yes SMLR are cashflow positive but their SP did take in March, so that is a concern. They are in medical equipment, so did a patent run out maybe.
BTBT I don't think the market minded because they were undervalued vs peers anyway. At least relative to consistent prices throughout the first 6 months of this year.
The CEO said on Friday in that interview they have $100m ETH, but didn't say what their btc hodl was. HPC margins were 71%. They had a curtailment at the beginning of the contract, so they gave the client a discount, which dropped margins to 61%. The margins are slightly less (than 71%) for this 2nd tranche of GPUs though, as they have given the client discount for volume. Not sure how much though.
SNLH haven't mentioned margins yet I believe? Also contract says $38m - $80m, which seems like a massive margin.
I still feel we are currently lifting off away from fundamentals, but it is important that all the miners make the right noises in their monthly reports to support this - however tenuous.
Jimmy SMLR - 828 bitcoin is about 25% of their mcap. Their share price was going nowhere so they've done this for attention. However looking at their Q1, it actually seems the business is profitable so maybe this is more than a gimmick. They are profit making and don't have debt. Will be interesting to see what they do. It's not for me but seems fine from an investment standpoint. Expect some sort of MSTR style offering from them soon.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1554859/000155485924000017/smlr-20240331x10q.htm#Item1FinancialStatements_277381
I guess btbt's monthly report this week will have to show definitively what they have left. Monthly reports all round should be interesting. Mara and Corz have been consistent lately. Will help a bit next difficulty adjustment set to be biggest drop since halving. Entering heatwave season could explain hash pullback. Don't expect it to last either way. But we can probably expect Argo and Riot to make a song and dance about curtailment credits again.
Yeah me three, the extension was when I thought the loan matured anyway. Odd.
You're right. The recent annual report also states 3 years. Who knows.....
This RNS must have dates wrong.
The Galaxy loan was first announced in December 2022 and set to run for 36 months, so maturity in December 2025.
Now they say they have been given an extension to December 2024 - but that would actually mean paying it off a year early. Only way this makes sense would be if they meant to say extension through to December 2026.
In the last update BTBT had 1,038.4 BTC and 20,508.3 ETH. The AI announcement is targeting 92 mil a year revenue, and peers are suggesting 75 to 80% margin on AI/HPC - although BTBT''s Q1's showed 61% margin as Jimmy says.
Seems the new CEO is the acceptable face of the company and seems quite popular. As we know the miners are all dodgy to some degree so it comes with the territory - I'm holding multiple miners for this reason as you never know if one will reveal something and tank. Yes Jimmy there was a comment that implied more news to come - https://x.com/SamirTabar/status/1805829484433604997
I'm looking for min $5 before I sell these.
Soluna I need to double check the mcap as some sites say 23 mil, but google says 44 mil. There's some preference shares and I suspect some sites count them and others don't.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/slnh
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SLNH:NASDAQ
It's one of my higher risk/return plays. I didn't get the lows but an still up nicely. Hoping for a run to $12 in the near future at which point I'd sell half my holdings and leave the rest for the bull run.
The question is how soon after Argo share price follows Btc (if you’re right) is the placing executed? Is it too desperately needed and signposted to put traders off here?
That’s if btc rallies soon, you’ve been calling it for a while ;)
Figures imply a ~16% interest rate, but clearly higher interest rates are more manageable on a smaller loan - although Argo will certainly be struggling with current conditions. The end date is interesting - wonder what date exactly the hosting agreement comes up. Wonder if Galaxy will try and pivot to AI or sell the site.... BTC I think is going to run up this month, I can feel it.
Wait so they've reduced the Galaxy loan from about $12.8m to $5.7m - that will be the majority of their cash position ($12.4m Mar 31st) spent on this but on the plus side the monthly repayments reduce further.
Must be touch and go re working capital though.
Shows what we already knew, that they aren't able to cover such a figure.
This is surely a last chance from Galaxy so Argo have til the end of the year to raise enough to cover this $5.7m or bust.