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Oh, the hedge. From memory isn't this around the lowest price on the hedge. I thought that it went up from here? HITS can you clarify?
9,272 x £3.15 we receive per day from Mercuria.
9,272 x spot price we pay per day to Mercuria
Remind me again, what is swap2?
Gallder, who's to say there isn't another swap 2 to take it's place?
It won't continue past the end of June as we lose swap 2.
If this continues at this rate of 10 days a month to agus there will be no problem with debts being paid in fact l would expect them to be paid off much quicker than a lot of posters are suggesting
MULTIPLIER 66,964
FIXED PRICE £0.7597
MERCURIA PAYMENT TO ANGUS = £50,870
MULTIPLIER 66,964
SPOT PRICE £0.6753
ANGUS PAYMENT TO MERCURIA = £45,221
PROFIT on SWAP is £5,649 (made up from a loss on swap 1 £17,296 and a profit on swap 2 £22,945)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY PRODUCTION therms 103,198
SPOT PRICE per THERM £0.6753
GAS SALES PAYMENT BY SHELL TO ANGUS = £69,692
GAS SALES gross profit = £75,341
Month to date GAS SALES PROFIT £357,870
less Shell 1.5% and Ntsec 0.386p/therm
1)SAP used instead of NBP
OUTPUT DATA 05.06.2023 & 04.06.2023
05/06/2023 00:00 05/06/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3100 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
05/06/2023 00:00 05/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 3,024,444.0000
05/06/2023 00:00 05/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2637
04/06/2023 00:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3500 ***ABOVE AVERAGE***
04/06/2023 00:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 3,015,556.0000
04/06/2023 00:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2632
Daily Output (Therms) = 103,198
Month To Date (Therms) = 506,589
Average Per Day (Therms) From 25.05.23= 101,650
F/C Monthly Hedge 1+2 Completion = 20/06/2023 19:52
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,604,715
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.5760
F/C Hedge 1 + 2 Revenue = £1,526,106
F/C Market Revenue = £593,595
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £2,119,701
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £2,087,906
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/DataItemExplorer
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Average Output Of 57,693 Therms To Complete The Monthly Hedge*
1) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of 5,250,000 Therms / 91 Days: 01.04.2022 - 30.06.2023
2) 3 Month Hedge Requirement Of Additional 843,750 Therms / 91 Days: 01.04.2023 - 30.06.2023
2023 Q2 Therms Revenue
Apr-23 1,751,187 £1,264,570.11
May-23 2,604,715 £1,960,176.78
Jun-23 3,039,536 £2,119,701.08 Forecast
Q2 2023 7,395,438 £5,344,447.98 Forecast
Month Therms Revenue
Jan-23 1,909,995 £1,759,930.52
Feb-23 1,665,428 £1,481,677.39
Mar-23 1,833,268 £1,673,093.54
Apr-23 1,751,187 £1,264,570.11
May-23 2,604,715 £1,960,176.78
Jun-23 3,039,536 £2,119,701.08 Forecast
H1 2023 12,804,129 £10,259,149.43 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 9.2mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 3,590,393,701
FC Avg Therms / Day = 100,000.00
Debt Outstanding = £3,109,828.39
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £21,677,374.94
F/Cast Share Price (p) = 3.78
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)
Nov-23 1.79
Dec-23 2.19
Jan-24 2.48
Feb-24 2.80
Mar-24 3.11
Apr-24 3.43
May-24 3.64
Jun-24 3.78
Regards,
04/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1: 0.2632(9.24mmscfd).
05/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1: 0.2637(9.31mmscfd)
Once the permanent connector is in place for B7T well, the flow rates will be 10mmscfd plus and consistency will be more defined.
In time, PF will be reducing his holdings. For now, an impact on price, but will not be an issue in time. Plus, gas prices should increase in winter months. In time, the price will hopefully move one way. It's foundation time at the moment. Once the above iron out, things will start to look better.
You make completely fair and reasonable points HITS. I have no idea why the market has not responded better to Angus' new situation. The only sensible conclusion that I can come up with is that the market is unsure that production rates will continue at current levels and is waiting to see a few months of consistent production before it is granted that Angus will really deliver the consistent production and revenues that we are all expecting. Or there is also the possibility that the markets are crazy and value wild exploration projects higher than sensible financial deliveries because you can make a fortune on a single successful drill.
On T212, the price graph has changed from p1.xx to p1.x. I wonder has this big purchase signalled a change in volatility as the price moves higher. Makes little difference to the sp but I feel a significance.
I agree that's what all available info is strongly indicating , CITM, including the "almost completely derisked" comment - after all, over the next three years even including the remaining hedges, the company's set to generate comfortably in excess of £70m of disposable revenue out of Sfby alone, presuming average gas pricing over that period of 80p per therm (and probably closer to £80m if one includes condensate sales).
It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to work those figures out - it's the work of 30 seconds. But again, why is the MCap remaining at £41 million? Is the general market really that unaware?
Flow up slightly today (for yesterday(:
06/06/2023 09:45:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby , D+2 3015556.0000 06/06/2023 10:00:00
06/06/2023 09:45:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby , D+2 0.2632 06/06/2023 10:00:00
.
.
05/06/2023 01:00:00 05/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 3024444.0000 06/06/2023 12:01:01 L
05/06/2023 01:00:00 05/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2637 06/06/2023 12:01:01 L
Sorry Saint I meant 1.1488.
The important thing at the moment is that Angus keep steadily producing strong numbers on gas production without any decline being shown. This is what appears to be happening and the moment and it is all that needs to happen for the company to be a success. It is frustrating that the share price reset is taking time, but Angus is now a mature company that is delivering real money not just dreams of future riches and this will be reflected in the share price sooner rather than later. The company is almost completely derisked at the moment and it is a good top up opportunity.
Top up week for me... Jus waiting on funds to drop... ;-)
MULTIPLIER 66,964
FIXED PRICE £0.7597
MERCURIA PAYMENT TO ANGUS = £50,870
MULTIPLIER 66,964
SPOT PRICE £0.5888
ANGUS PAYMENT TO MERCURIA = £39,428
PROFIT on SWAP is £11,442 (made up from a loss on swap 1 £12,305 and a profit on swap 2 £23,747)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY PRODUCTION therms 102,895
SPOT PRICE per THERM £0.5888
GAS SALES PAYMENT BY SHELL TO ANGUS = £60,585
GAS SALES gross profit = £72,027
Month to date GAS SALES PROFIT £282,529
less Shell 1.5% and Ntsec 0.386p/therm
1)SAP used instead of NBP
Flows that should have been released yesterday at 12:00 now out:
03/06/2023 01:00:00 03/06/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2400 04/06/2023 12:01:01 L
03/06/2023 01:00:00 03/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 3010000.0000 04/06/2023 12:01:01 L
03/06/2023 01:00:00 03/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2627 04/06/2023 12:01:01 L
06/06/2023 09:45:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby , D+2 41.3500 06/06/2023 10:00:00
06/06/2023 09:45:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby , D+2 3015556.0000 06/06/2023 10:00:00
06/06/2023 09:45:00 04/06/2023 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby , D+2 0.2632 06/06/2023 10:00:00
I will put it out there, we have a savvy background buyer at these levels. A serious player that will accumulate in what they consider to be small %'s until they hit the % for disclosure.
Time will tell. I have a feeling that we have someone building a stake, and they are gonna take this past the 10% level in due course.
3p nailed on later this year, question is whether they want ANGS outright or whether they want a multi-bagger.
Just an opinion of course. DYOR.
Buy @ 1.488 that is quite a difference to 1.15 . Are you sure about this paddy ?
... today, the GMB general secretary, Gary Smith, who has often supported fracking, said the oil and gas industry needed “plans not bans”.
He told his union’s annual congress today:
“We have to fix and secure our energy supply if we are to face down threats from authoritarian regimes in the world and find a workable way to achieve net zero.”
He said:
“our future requires a mix of energy sources – new nuclear, renewables, hydrogen, and oil and gas. It would be a huge mistake to put all the nation’s eggs in one energy basket.” ...
https://drillordrop.com/2023/06/05/leading-organisations-warn-against-new-oil-and-gas-fields/
Thanks for that ab, well if not them it was someone. At around 4.15pm yesterday you could buy at 1.488 and at 4.25pm buys went to 1.1588, so for me they were buys.
You haven’t read last week’s Q& A Paddylogic. The company is in a closed period until June 30th which prevents the directors from buying.
“Hi, Since the most recent LSE interview, have any of senior management purchased shares in the company? Are senior management in a closed period? Thanks Asked on 31 May 2023
“We are in a close period due to forthcoming interim accounts. For general information this is the definition from the AIM Rules for Companies:
“CLOSE PERIOD (i) The period of two months preceding the publication of an AIM company’s annual results (or, if shorter, the period from its financial year end to the time of publication); and ♦ if it reports only half-yearly, the period of two months immediately preceding the notification of its half-yearly report or, if shorter, the period from the relevant financial period end up to and including the time of the notification; or ♦ if it reports on a quarterly basis, the period of one month immediately preceding the notification of its quarterly results or, if shorter, the period from the relevant financial period end up to and including the time of the notification; (ii) any other period when the AIM company is in possession of unpublished price sensitive information; or (iii) any time it has become reasonably probable that such information will be required by these rules to be notified.”
Director buys imo.
However the average household energy bill would take a knock. Sometimes generosity of spirit should come before profit. Modest profit is good enough for most, 'over unnecessary profit' belongs to the greedy; IMO