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Ronjoe - No probs and thanks but most brokers seem to be behind the curve!. This is just struggling at the moment to break and hold above 1940 resistance. Matt - Have replied on BVXP and thanks again. DD
DD I should have had the good manners to thank you for your informed reply. Just as well as i can now congratulate you on your gift of foresight.
Was almost tempted to sell a few when the price hit 1950 this morning, the way the market is going, and probably the shares will drop on the results no matter how good. However on seeing JP Morgan's increased price target from �18 to �24 have held fire for now.
Yep, I'm with Dave on this - Good for �25 by summer next year IMV.
Morgan Cazenove reaffirms its overweight on AHT and lifts its TP to �24. I think we can test �20 with a fair wind. Ronjoe has pointed out we were near the top of the broker ratings at �19. A few more upgrades likes today's of target prices and we will be lagging once more.
Morning Ronjoe and many congratulations, I�m well jealous :) Do think that thanks to Harvey and Irma that the Q2 results in a couple of weeks will be the first �above expectations� since the interims last year and reading between the lines they hinted at this at Q1 (or perhaps I read too much into it!): �It is too early to attempt to quantify the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma accurately on our business. However, it is evident that it will result in an increase in demand for our fleet and we will provide an update at the end of Q2.� As you know as a LTH, generally speaking the market constantly sets the bar very high for AHT and most �ahead of expectations� follows a run up in share price and then a sell on results. However, given there has been nothing but �in-line� thus far this FY then I�m hoping the normal sell on results will not happen and it will provide the impetus to break the 52 week high. IMO the sector still hasn�t reached the peak of the cycle, particularly in the US, so the Trump effect aside I still feel earnings for the year will beat expectations. Current forecasts are for underlying earnings of 120p, based on the Q1 growth in relation to last year I think it will be more like 130p-140p. With a five year average PE of 16 that�s a target price of c �21.60. Earnings growth even at constant exchange rates will mean this has a PEG less than 1 which is mainly what I focus on now. So whilst I agree that this is currently trading on a forward PE of 16 which is fair value with zero upside!, I do believe this will get a rerating at some point this FY (I hope so anyway). What broker was forecasting that AHT would 20 bag back in 2008/9?......answer: NONE. GL DD
Hi MTB and DD I'm on a 20 bagger here. Have held through the drops as i have always had great confidence in this business. Wondering if you think we are beginning to plateau or might there be another kick on at some point. We are near the top of the broker ratings now. Fundamentals still seem good.
Hi Matt, Good to see your still in here and doing okay. Am kicking myself about IGG, still has �7 written all over it but got too inpatient - fool! Do wonder given the cyclical nature of AHT how long before it downturns, they say construction has 7 year cycles, will have held these 6 years come early 2018, so when will it turn?........guess a lot will depend on the Donald as much as anything else, interesting times though. dubious No problem didn�t think for one minute you attempted to mislead anyone. All the best. DD
You're right DD. Sorry if I mislead anyone. In my search to find a reason for the jump in the share price on Friday I got the percentages the wrong way round!
Hi Dave, Good to hear from you. Congrats on your 5-bag - sweet. I've invested 3 times in this baby now. First time a one bagger (�1 to �2), second time a 4 bagger (�1 to �4 - sold too early!!), and currently a 2.5 bagger (�8 to �19.50). Don't worry on IGG - we've all been there. Of course you could adopt a new lesson - Always do what MTB says....;-)) (I suggested this to my wife once - big mistake...)
dubious Harris reduced their holding by 0.14%. DD
I looked up the Chicago investment company, Harris Associates, which increased its holding in AHT causing the price rise on Friday. Seems that through their fund: Oakmark International, they look for "bargains across the pond"!. I also note that in after hours trades on Friday the price seemed to drop back to 1956. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Hi Matt, Hope all is well. Looks like this has got its mojo back again!........quite a days close for me, now a five bagger (my first!). Good luck. DD ps I sold IGG too early.......lesson: don�t make decisions on gut feelings, let the fundamentals do the talking!
Indeed!! Only problem with that is that I'll then have to make a difficult decision!! - nice problem to have though.
Good trading update from URI after hours last night has got AHT moving this morning. Could reach your �20 target sooner than you thought Matt!
Hi Dubs - I tend to agree, particularly as URI is currently trading at a 10% PE premium to AHT as well. Like you, I'm sticking with it here.
The market doesn't seem to be up to speed yet with AHT. Their shares have risen 14% since hurricane Harvey whilst URI shares are up 32%.
....£20 price target not a million miles away from here now!
over this one this morning but is not yet up with events. It can easily hit £20 with very good visibility and some year on year work. AHt was already performing strongly and is now perfectly place to assist with the aftermath of the Hurricane.I am surprised to see Liberum and Peel Hunt make not change to TP after today. Particularly Peel Hunt whose TP of 1800p should be surpassed in short order. Before today I was a buyer up to £17. Now I am a buyer up to £19. The update at the end of q2 should proide a further spur to the SP.
nice one
That's the statutory results IP. The Underlying figures are the ones to focus on, and these show pre-tax of £238.5m, and eps of 31.5p. Also, rental growth of 17% in constant currency terms. Another great set of figures, and with full year consensus forecasts currently at 118p, I think we're going to see some nice upgrades here. I expect a stock price above £20 by year end now. GLA
BRIEF – Ashtead posts Q1 pretax profit of 229 mln stg
From Sharecast a couple of days ago: Assessing the impact of Hurricane Harvey on Ashtead Group's US-based Sunbelt is difficult, said Jefferies, but the arm could benefit from a sizeable amount of disaster recovery revenue based on previous disasters. Using Hurricane Sandy as a precedent, Sunbelt may see roughly $50m of immediate disaster recovery rental revenue, equating to about a 2% uplift to the 2018 forecast pre-tax profit of £894m and earnings per share 118.6p. This does not include rebuild rental work that would be expected over several years and the possibility of the storm being a catalyst for increased US flood defence infrastructure spend. At this early stage, Jefferies analysts retained their unchanged 2018 estimates but do expect a Harvey update alongside Ashtead's first quarter results on 12 September. For the quarter, analysts forecast 12% rental revenue growth, of which 14% from volume and a decline of 2% from yield, giving £229.2m PBT and EPS of 30.4p. It was noted that while Ashtead shares have risen 7.5% over past week, US peers United Rentals was up 12.4% and HERC Rentals up 16.3%. DD
...nice. Matt
Guess that's what's driving the price today.