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Yes "UK Gas reserves estimate 4.6tcf - Aminex 3D Seismic estimate 16.38tcf"
Sooner or later people are going to wake up to the real value to be had here. Think what value the UK reserves? The comparison is then there for all to see.
With development licence cabinet approved and development process set to begin within the next 3 months news flow is going to grow and grow.
Make no mistake this Ruvuma field is considered a world class gas field and is set to transform Tanzania.
In my opinion there is huge potential growth for both short, medium and long term investors and at this price it is a giveaway.
BG. Does anybody care what RoJo has to say?
Considering he never says anything I doubt it.
When he tries to ask clever questions designed to trap you in a corner as he did yesterday, he just provides opportunities to answer and get the truth out there.
We still have a place available for him at the after AGM Lunch meeting if he'd like to show his face.
Is he at it again?
He must be mexican - the more he keeps bashing the aminex piñata the more candy spills out
Happy upcoming cinco de mayo el rojo
Happy upcoming RNS to the rest of you
You should care jollyboy! I have been consistently right for years. I'll post an accurate summary of where we are later on.
A bit more volume could bring another tick up today
The actual spread is very tight now, won't take much to move it.
Well up went the ask and 1.30 paid. Hopefully will kick on for a nice finish
Looks like the ask is now 1.35
Is that on L2? I'm on phone so 15min delay for me atm. If so perhaps a tick up in the sp coming
Shows on ADVFN live prices (not L2, just normal live).
A buy just went through at 1.347.
Niceee
Dow Jones has opened up almost 500 points higher. Not sure what that's all about but hopefully the positivity will spread to the UK market.
3 sells just gone through, all at 1.27. Up from 1.2 earlier.
Finally on the move even on very low volume. Maybe the MM's got a whisper.
Tuesday is the regular PR day with the new team over the last few weeks and an RNS confirming the dev licence being issued would not surprise me.
Yes good to see a blue Friday. I'm sure there were a few people who sold out on the rns hoping for a drift back to buy in cheaper again. Sometimes just sitting and holding is the better option.
Couldn't agree more Wryape. Shall we round off the week with a reminder of possible valuations for Ruvuma, the World-Class Giant onshore asset for which we own 25%
"Why not" I hear you say 😁
Note all figures are unrisked. Note also that the two different Shard Capital scenarios I’ve extrapolated out from, consider a) just greater resources than base case and b) greater resources and production rates than base case:
“As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)
In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.
Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:
“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.
They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.
Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.
If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…
3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p
If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p
So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.
There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.
Just a yardstick. I hope this helps"
Wait until that RNS drops hopefully on Tuesday and those silly few grabbing their quick 5% this afternoon will be paying dearly, but hey ho, as long as they have their weekend beer money
Agreed Roger. Weekend beer money? Buy/hold for champagne for life.
Couldn't have put it better myself 🍾🍾🍾 😁
As a tea total would happily join you... But what makes you so sure?... I mean in the long time I am sure too, but next week - ? ehm - not really
Email, it us more about the realisation of what we have here. Due to past delays this has gone under the radar and many don't appreciate the size of this field.
Larger than UK reserves must give an indication that this is vastly undervalued as the field development process is due to begin within the next 3 months
Yes RJ, remember that extremely high pressure that was found in Likonde-1, that is what is sitting under this stock, just waiting for something to come along and release it. That might be the licence presentation ceremony, the CH-1 drilling, the pipeline being constructed, first commercial Gas, something will create a big rally IMVHO at some point, something that wakes the rest of the market up to what this company has and causes a significant re-rating.
Ufufuo you say "Buy/hold for champagne for life." Blimey must either have a huge holding or like very cheap champagne! ;0)
I cannot bear Champagne - I would rather fill my Cellar with Hermitage, Cote Rotie and CNDP....
Tuesday? I beg to differ, they will need to get the RNS into the LSE and approved, as it is shut on Monday I would doubt we will see it that soon. Though I would love to be proven wrong - maybe it is already "in" and awaiting publication?
I have a huge holding ;-)
Your cellar plan sounds good. 10p party at Crusty’s place I think 😁