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I'd like to see a hat eating party 🥳
You'll have to ramp the SP all the way to 10p for that.
But I'd be delighted if you succeed.
He would only cheat and bring one of these https://www.pinterest.com/pin/119134352620760394/
Better idea Ufufuo - way back I suggested we had a 'do'' at the Shard. Crusty could buy the place outright !
I'm not sure I'd want to celebrate in a crusty shard.
Ufufuo,
Going back to your numbers and scenarios posted earlier on this thread, maybe there is another scenario that's not yet been offered up.
"produces at a rate of 140mmscfd"
If we are looking at 16TCF for the Ntorya area, a quarter of that is AEX Gas, 4TCF.
4 TCF = 4,000,000,000 MCF
https://www.kylesconverter.com/volume/trillion-cubic-feet-to-thousands-of-cubic-feet
For Kiliwani Gas "Aminex will receive USD 3.00 per mmbtu (approximately USD 3.07 per mcf)" and we know the newer Gas prices are higher, but let's just stick with $3 for the moment.
USD 3 x 4,000,000,000 = $12,000,000,000
Gas recovery. We know it's Gas pressure that sends the gas up the well, so 50-70 percent recovery.
"Gas expansion 50–70%"
https://wiki.aapg.org/Predicting_hydrocarbon_recovery
That would give the area 8 to 11.2 TCF recoverable. 2TCF to 2.8TCF to AEX worth $6,000,000,000 to $8,400,000,000. If only AEX could book that as a resource sometime.
And why stop at a rate of 140mmscfd, when that was based on the much smaller resource, and making it last 25 years.
With 16TCF they could produce at a much higher rate, 4x, 5x or even more, so long as they have pipelines capable of transporting it, and it would still last 25 years or more.
Then your valuations that are based on revenues would be 4x or 5x too.
Ufufuo,
Following on from my previous post, after more thinking.
The 3D seismic completely changes the economics of the project, making it viable to significantly increase production earlier, with no effect on the expected lifetime of the resource. Forget what was behind the 140mmscfd plan, ARA now have a completely different resource to base the development plan on, and much bigger production should easily be possible. I was one of those shouting for 3D seismic over Ruvuma way before they made it a plan, as Mike Rego said it was the only way to really work out what was down there, as the complex geology was not easy to understand on 2D seismic.
Tanzania are also building pipelines to Uganda and Kenya, possibly to Zambia as well. The LNG plant is going nowhere now as the government want to change the deal, but those big oil majors wont want to concede any of the profitability as they are the ones that will need to borrow and pay back the funding for it. So significantly increasing the Ntorya output would help fill those pipelines to other countries.
I suspect an updated field development plan to be forthcoming, maybe not this year but certainly after CH-1 is drilled and they can see what max output they can go to, and once stable money is flowing in to us and ARA.
Hang on haggis!
Tanzania are not building pipelines anywhere!
They're just talking about it!
Ignore the troll talking trollocks, it's just the long term Aminex stock basher, never held the stock, just bashes it day in day out, quite possibly a disgruntled ex-employee or something, best to just add them to your filter as everything they write is fantasy invented in their mind to try and scare people away from the truth, that this is a really good stock to be in, and you can still get in on the ground floor at the current market cap.
Hi StockCheque, will go through all of that later and will come back to you 👍