Bradda Head Lithium exceeds targets, secures US$3 million royalty and moves closer to production. Watch the video here.
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Up a bit more, Numerco 84.50/86.50
After recent fall up a small amount, Numerco 83.50/85.00 up 0.73
Does anyone have a perspective on some of occassional discussions on x.com about FIP (fund implied price)?
For example https://x.com/GoForBull/status/1805591771067596950
This is being discussed as a leading indicator for uranium stock prices and if it falls then uranium stock prices will follow it down. Surely it is a lagging indicator and the discount to NAV it represents is already baked into SPUT (and YCA) share price ? Any ideas ?
Anyone been buying down here ?
Some links to support the other comments:
https://www.gov.uk/individual-savings-accounts/if-you-die
https://ifamagazine.com/investing-in-aim-shares-within-an-isa-for-iht-planning/
BPR... sounds like not the sort of questions for rando's on the internet, but I'll say I reckon no as BPR is relevant for _unlisted_ shares:
https://www.gov.uk/business-relief-inheritance-tax
Would YCA shares qualify for BPR, since it is not an actual mining company?
Some AIM shares are exempt from Inheritance tax, whether or not they are held in an ISA.
What is an AIM ISA?
An AIM ISA is a portfolio of AIM shares. Within an ISA, your profits are free from income tax, capital gains tax and dividend tax. Alongside these tax efficiencies, investing in AIM shares means you can also be exempt from inheritance tax (IHT), making AIM ISAs – also known as AIM IHT ISAs – attractive tax wrappers.
AIM shares need to qualify for Business Property Relief (BPR) and be held for more than two years at the time of death to qualify for IHT exemption.
BPR is generally not available through funds, so to qualify you must be invested directly in shares - though there are exceptions.
I guess you are asking regarding them being held in an ISA.
Money held in ISAs is not exempt from Inheritance Tax.
Does anyone know?
Orano at Risk of Losing Niger Uranium Mine Sought by Russia.
Bloomberg: https://archive.ph/uer5T
https://republicofmining.com/2024/06/17/orano-at-risk-of-losing-niger-uranium-mine-sought-by-russia-by-katarina-hoije-bloomberg-news-june-15-2024/
I've said it before but... I'm convinced Orano are going to have to find some new supply.
Up a small amount, Numerco 85.00/86.00 up 0.5
Spot seems to have ended in downward run
Numerco 84.00/86.00 up 2.5
Perhaps because motley fools just stated Uranium is on a downward path, you have got to love those guys.
"Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM."
This is true but and I have been thinking about trading a small amount of YCA but I am having trouble predicting/guessing the discount, however the spot price trend seems to easier to predict/guess but discount make a large amount of the short term movement in the SP.
In my previous post I said
"so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual."
Should have said not unusual.
On 3 June 2024, it took delivery of 1,526,717 lb of U3O8 from Kazatomprom at the Orano storage facility in France
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/YCA/delivery-of-1-526-717-lb-of-u3o8/16501148
Cameco's monthly figures for May are released:
https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price
2024: Jan $72.00 , Feb $75.00 , Mar $77.50 , Apr $77.50 , May $78.50
Not sure what can be said other than what's been said many times already, which is: this is not a transparent market.
> I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty
Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM.
"It's not worth trading Uranium."
IMO it is worth trading Cameco, I mostly invest but now and then trade out some of my holding and back in when the price is right. I don't always call it right but do enough of the time, fully back in now after a couple of trades yesterday. I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty and low charges with II, sometimes free. I find the SP is quite volatile with a decent range. e.g. so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual. So far have not made much on just the trading as only doing this with around 1/3 of my Cameco investment but a bit of fun and enough to make it worth while.
Does anyone know what criteria YCA follows to buy U3O8 in the spot market? There is an annual contract with Kazatomprom for $100mn worth of yellow cake but does YCA buy in the spot market like SPUT (Sprott Uranium Trust) does?
If yes, where does the company publish this information?
Some conversation on twitter about new long term U price to be published this month https://x.com/CycleInvestor/status/1795465270997172252
For those not on x.com - the historical long term U price from 2020 is worth a look
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F46yQHVeVOq6K1ScTo8As89HVX83MTyw/view?usp=sharing
It's not worth trading Uranium.
There is always the caveat,, unless you have nothing better to be doing.
These days I have plenty of better things to be doing than trading.
Buy, hold and sitting over 100% up with little 'work' after doing the initial research.
Thank you for the refinement I would have done a bit of polishing but currently away on holiday and daringly without a laptop!
Up a little, Numerco 91.00/92.25
so thisiia bit rough and ready as were quite a lot of erro lines, but thanks andmillys for the data. i filtered out all the records that were for 4pm so both markets were open
over all time the differential has ranged -9.1% to 13.2% in favour of sput avg 5%. in 2024 its 0.6% - 13.2% avg 7.5%. i'm an excel guy so no idea how to share this!!! so at the 4.7% on 19th its not that interesting, but maybe slightly in favour of sput.
what i am thinking is being long both in varying ratios rather than reducing my long. i can buy the canadian listed sput as well as yca. something like diso**** current 37% of the 2024 range so own 37% yca and 63% sput. i need to have a bit more of think about it.
the correlation betwen the yca price and discount diff is 62% which means yca goes up and discount i.e it underperforms. however correlation in 2024 is -15% means yca has started to outperform on way up. this might be because sput is already trading near premium and yca has been in dogs house.
does this work https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2pacx-1vrulyonune0iik1txxjpttr-arvc2nfc1tn2mcg17keld3xjmzw946tos0n2ugjh7ssr7b_y55cig-p/pub?output=xlsx
>It's not worth trading Uranium.
From personal experience... I was in the habit of holding a number of shares more-or-less proportional to the size of the discount. i.e. When it would move from -20% to -15% to -10%, I'd sell a quarter then another quarter of holdings. And this did work well for a couple of years (though I actually originally was going in and out based on a range of -10% to +10% before changing strat and doing it based on -20% to 0%, ie. not own it when at a premium), but things changed last year and it seemed like whenever there was a good trend upward the discount would be much smaller & I'd miss out on it. So mostly stopped trading it and have been a plain holder with just a few trades here and there (*checks notes* - 5 this calendar year so far).
I've not done any proper analysis but I suspect:
1) if one does analyse the price & discount data, they will find that small discounts correlate with upward movements much more since about a year ago than before then.
2) it used to be the case but I suspect it not even clear now that moves in YCA lag moves in U3O8 spot - perhaps that implies the U3O8 spot market traders are trading YCA too?
I haven't kept this in his shape but it's got the raw data you need.
Please share any insights...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1b1VrUXbGYG6fjd0Kqh_bMh_4MTGgbQd0R9oXMx1_hzM/htmlview#gid=0